BMIE Market 21213

Baltimore city, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	28,058 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,673 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,009 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±576 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	32,733 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	14,968 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$51,344 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,436 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,325 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±56 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$155,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,627 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21213
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-17.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-17.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 17–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	33 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21213. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.4	59	40%	+23.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.7	71	35%	+24.8
Market Momentum Score	33.1	33	25%	+8.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	28,058	87	40%	+35.0
Median household income (ACS)	51,344	16	40%	+6.6
Households (ACS)	12,009	89	20%	+17.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	35%	+27.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.0	92	25%	+22.9
Population (ACS)	28,058	87	20%	+17.5
Median household income (ACS)	51,344	16	20%	+3.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-17.7	14	50%	+7.1
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	30%	+23.1
20-year restaurant growth	-17.7	14	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 8 · Pizza 7 · Chinese 5 · Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Chicken / wings 4 · Burgers 3 · Bakery 2 · Caribbean 2 · Dessert 2 · Seafood 2 · African 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Italian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 32 · Bar 15 · Casual dining 10 · Quick service 10 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4 Brothers Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3209 Belair Rd	open
Alsafa Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mediterranean	3205 Belair Rd	open
And 4 Dessert	Dessert	Dessert	3425 Sinclair Ln	open
Beans and Barley	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1901 E North Ave	open
Buckett's Lounge	Bar		1432 N Chester St	open
Chef Dad Pot Pies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1731 Llewelyn Ave	open
Chelle's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	3436 Belair Rd	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3947 Erdman Ave	open
China Kitchen Rest	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2201 E North Ave	open
Cloudz & Cocktailz Restaurant, Bar, and Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2035 N Broadway	open
Crown Fried Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4534 Erdman Ave	open
Cups Coffeehouse	Café	Coffee	3216 Belair Rd	open
CUPs Coffehouse	Coffee shop	Coffee	1301 N Broadway	open
Ddl Lounge	Bar		2008 Belair Rd	open
Delicious Carryout	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4330 ERDMAN Ave	open
Dos Migos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3437 Harwell Ave	open
Erdman Seafood and Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Chicken / wings	3913 Erdman Ave	open
Fireside Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1843 N Montford Ave	open
Four Brother	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3209 Belair Rd	open
Good Fortune	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3223 Belair Rd	open
Haiti's Pizza And Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4205 Erdman Ave	open
Hummingbird Carryout	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	3217 Belair Rd	open
In-out Fish And Chicken-belair Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3403 Belair Rd	open
Jake's Place	Bar		2401 E Chase St	open
Jazzy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3320 Belair Rd	open
John Hopkins	Bar		3730 Bonview Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · American	3333 Belair Rd	open
La'son Bar & Grille	Bar · Casual dining		3209 Belair Rd	open
Legendary Lifestyle Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	1301 N Broadway	open
Liquor store	Bar		4500 Erdman Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3933 Erdman Ave	open
Manna Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3417 Belair Rd	open
Manna Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	3417 Belair Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2001 N Broadway	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4526 Erdman Ave	open
Michael's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	1914 Edison Hwy	open
Nephews Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4534 Erdman Ave	open
Nino's Fresh and Frozen Pizza Dough	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	1710 N Ellwood Ave	open
Ocean Breeze Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1321 E North Ave	open
Oliver Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4216 Shannon Dr	open
Robbie's Nest	Casual dining · Bar		2250 E North Ave	open
Sajoma Deli & Grocery	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1300 N Caroline St	open
Sam’s Cheese Steak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3320 Belair Rd	open
Saviour African Food Restaurant and Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	African · American	3341 Belair Rd	open
Shirley's Place Bar	Bar · Casual dining		3300 Lawnview Ave	open
Spencer's Carry Out	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chinese · American	2446 E Preston St	open
Steeplechase Ii	Bar		2401 E Chase St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1950 N Broadway	open
Sugar Ray’s	Casual dining · Bar		1322 N Milton Ave	open
Sunny's	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1801 E Preston St	open
Supremo's Pizza And Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4205 Erdman Ave	open
Sweetie's Cottage Foods Farm Stand	Bakery	Bakery	1518 N Bond St	open
Taste Of Heaven	Casual dining	American	3436 Belair Rd	open
Vaughn's Soul Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	2900 E Oliver St Ste C	open
Yolo Bar & Lounge	Bar · Casual dining		4502 Erdman Ave	open
Yummy Yummy	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chinese	3613 Belair Rd	open
Zenibel Deli Grocery Supermarket	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1939 E North Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	24	16	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1995	26	16	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1996	30	17	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1997	30	19	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1998	22	14	4	9	1	7	NAICS1997
1999	22	15	4	10	1	6	NAICS1997
2000	22	13	4	8	1	8	NAICS1997
2001	26	16	4	9	2	9	NAICS1997
2002	27	19	3	13	2	7	NAICS1997
2003	23	17	2	13	2	5	NAICS2002
2004	25	19	2	14	2	5	NAICS2002
2005	25	18	—	15	2	6	NAICS2002
2006	21	15	—	13	2	5	NAICS2002
2007	18	14	—	13	1	3	NAICS2002
2008	15	12	—	11	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	14	10	—	9	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	14	11	—	10	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	—	11	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	11	—	11	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	—	10	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	15	13	—	13	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	16	14	—	14	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	—	14	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	—	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	—	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	19	—	18	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	19	17	—	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	19	—	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	18	—	17	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	14	—	13	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21213. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21205	1.1 mi	41	2023
21287	1.2 mi	4	2023
21218	1.7 mi	86	2023
21231	2.0 mi	90	2023
21202	2.0 mi	127	2023
21233	2.1 mi	1	2003
21251	2.4 mi	1	2016
21206	2.6 mi	38	2023
21214	2.7 mi	20	2023
21201	2.8 mi	114	2023
21217	3.3 mi	27	2023
21224	3.3 mi	172	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.