BMIE Market 28759

Henderson County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,555 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±162 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,856 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±192 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,922 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,170 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,609 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,065 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,551 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±437 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$444,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±45,864 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28759
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+800.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+800.0% DERIVED: 2009 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2010–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	99 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28759. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2010–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.0	74	40%	+29.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.6	82	35%	+28.6
Market Momentum Score	99.3	99	25%	+24.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,555	67	40%	+26.6
Median household income (ACS)	107,609	85	40%	+34.1
Households (ACS)	2,856	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	800	100	35%	+35.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.9	65	25%	+16.2
Population (ACS)	7,555	67	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	107,609	85	20%	+17.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 99 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	200	99	50%	+61.9
10-year restaurant growth	800	100	30%	+37.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 4 · Pizza 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Coffee 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 6 · Brewery / taproom 5 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amazing Pizza Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4144 Haywood Rd	open
Appalachian Mountain Brewery Taproom and Kitchen	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		46 N Mills River Rd	open
Big Mike's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4176 Haywood Rd	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3575 Boylston Highway	open
Bold Rock Mills River Cidery	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		72 School House Rd	open
Burning Blush Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4891 Boylston Hwy	open
Choo Choo Express Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3632 Butler Bridge Rd	open
Conosur	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	4195 Haywood Rd	open
Craft Cookery Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		336 Banner Farm Rd Bldg 2	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4197 Haywood Road	open
Mills River Brewing Co	Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar		336 Banner Farm Rd	open
Mills River Creamery, Llc	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4193 Haywood Rd	open
Mills River Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4467 Boylston Hwy	open
Mountain River Tap & Growlers	Bar · Brewery / taproom			open
Nancy Lynn's Diner & Pizzeria	Casual dining	American	4195 Haywood Rd	open
Ob-Skewered	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4176 Haywood Rd	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	3338 Boylston Hwy	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3338 Boylston Hwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	27 Cross Road Dr	open
Taqueria El Taco Loco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4180 Haywood Rd	open
The Old Silo Farmstand	Bakery	Bakery	193 Pennsylvania Rd	open
The Robinson Pub at High Vista	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		88 Country Club Rd	open
Trail Marker Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	46 N Mills River Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2009	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2018	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28759. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28742	3.5 mi	5	2023
28729	4.3 mi	6	2023
28791	4.9 mi	26	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.