BMIE Market 32816

Orange County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,624 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±194 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	Data source not yet connected
Housing units	Data source not yet connected
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	19.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	2.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32816
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 1–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32816. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	49.9	50	40%	+20.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.0	61	35%	+21.4
Market Momentum Score	36.9	37	25%	+9.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 50 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,624	74	40%	+49.4
Households (ACS)	0	1	20%	+0.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+15.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.3	87	25%	+27.2
Population (ACS)	12,624	74	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (45)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · American 5 · Chicken / wings 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Burgers 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Cuban 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Quick service 10 · Coffee shop 8 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Delivery-focused 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bar 2 · Buffet 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
63 South	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	Jimmie A. Ferrell Student Services Commons, 4121 Pyxis Ln	open
Barnes & Noble Café	Coffee shop	Coffee	4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Bento Sushi Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	12715 Pegasus Dr	open
Burger U	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	4233 E Plaza Dr	open
Cafe Bustelo	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Cuban	12710 Pegasus Cir	open
Chick-fil-a Chick-fil-A	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	109 Ucf Dining Services Central Florida Blvd Src S	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	12820 Gemini Blvd S	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	4000 Central Florida Blvd SRC109	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	4250 W Plaza Dr	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	114 Aquarius Agora Dr Bldg 26	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	4210 W Plaza Dr	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	4400 Central Florida Blvd	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	12494 University Blvd	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	12744 Pegasus Dr	open
Foxtail Coffee Foxtail Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	101 Aquarius Agora Dr	open
Gringos Locos UCF Gringos Locos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4258 W Plaza Dr	open
Huey Magoo's Chicken Tenders - Ucf	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	12715 Pegasus Dr Bldg 52	open
Java City	Casual dining	American	4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Jimmy John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4000 Central Florida Blvd Ste. 50	open
Joffrey's Coffee & Tea Company Joffrey's Coffee & Tea Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	12715 Pegasus Dr	open
Knightro's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	12791 E Plaza Dr	open
Knightstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12715 Pegasus Dr	open
Kyoto Sushi And Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Panda Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	12715 Pegasus Dr	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4000 Central Florida Blvd - Student Unio	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	12715 Pegasus Dr.Ste #137	open
Red Brick Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Sbarro	Quick service		4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Smoke & Donuts Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	12715 Pegasus Dr	open
Smoothie King Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	12800 Gemini Blvd Bldg 88	open
Smoothie King Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Delivery-focused	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	UCF, Student Union, 12715 Pegasus Circle, Bldg 52 Pegasus Circle, Bldg 52	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	12715 Pegasus Dr	open
Steak 'n Shake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12715 Pegasus Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4218 West Plaza Drive	open
The Lounge - University of Central Florida	Bar		4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
The Marketplace	Buffet		4000 Central Florida Blvd Ferrell Commons	open
The Pop Parlour	Coffee shop	Coffee	4214 E Plaza Dr	open
Topper's Creamery	Dessert	Dessert	4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Topper's Creamery Ucf	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
UCF Dining Services	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	4115 Pyxis Ln	open
UCF Marketplace	Buffet		4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Wackadoo's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Wendy's	Quick service		4000 Central Florida Blvd	open
Which Wich Which Wich	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	UCF Student Union, 12715 Pegasus Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	5	1	1	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	5	1	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	4	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	4	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	2	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	12	2	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	1	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	9	1	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	12	1	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	1	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	1	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32816. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32826	1.5 mi	56	2023
32817	3.0 mi	96	2023
32820	3.8 mi	14	2023
32765	4.5 mi	132	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.