BMIE Market 32820

Orange County, Florida · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,897 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,436 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,506 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±394 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,974 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,908 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$106,859 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,328 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,611 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±755 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$438,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55,664 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 32820
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+133.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+366.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+600.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 16–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	80 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 32820. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Florida and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 918, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.7	77	40%	+30.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79.9	80	35%	+28.0
Market Momentum Score	80.4	80	25%	+20.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,897	72	40%	+28.8
Median household income (ACS)	106,859	85	40%	+34.0
Households (ACS)	3,506	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	133.3	95	35%	+33.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.9	61	25%	+15.2
Population (ACS)	10,897	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	106,859	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.7	65	50%	+32.4
10-year restaurant growth	133.3	95	30%	+28.5
20-year restaurant growth	366.7	98	20%	+19.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · American 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Quick service 6 · Bar 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7l Bar Ranch	Bar		15227 Lake Pickett Rd	open
Bronx Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	16869 E Colonial Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	18735 E Colonial Dr	open
Long John Silver's	Quick service		16880 E Colonial Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	16920 E Colonial	open
New York Pizza Company New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	18406 E Colonial Dr	open
Ni Hao Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	16857 E Colonial Dr	open
Papa Gio's Pizzeria Of East Orlando	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	16869 E Colonial Dr	open
Sobik's Subs	Other	Sandwiches	18406 E Colonial Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	16889 East Colonial Drive Suite #102	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3548 Avalon Park Blvd Suite #2	open
T &#x26 D Outdoor Power Centers Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18201 E Colonial Dr	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	16880 E Colonial Dr	open
Tillie's Twistee Treat	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	16801 E Colonial Dr	open
Wild Bean Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	16891 E Colonial Dr	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Chicken / wings · Healthy / salads / bowls · American	16783 E Colonial Dr	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	16825 E Colonial Dr	open
Bottle Caps Bar & Grill	Bar		17502 E Colonial Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	—	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	1	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	—	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	—	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	—	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	—	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	—	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	—	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	1	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	14	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	14	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	13	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	13	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	3	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	14	—	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 32820. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
32826	3.0 mi	56	2023
32828	3.7 mi	135	2023
32816	3.8 mi	8	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.