BMIE Market 37615
Washington County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 22,821 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 9,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±675 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 19,560 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 9,155 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $77,525 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,472 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $993 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $294,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,012 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 37.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 35 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 37615 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 14.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +6.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +84.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +250.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 40 (range 37–43) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37615. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 73.8 | 74 | 40% | +29.5 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 62.4 | 62 | 35% | +21.8 |
| Market Momentum Score | 65.0 | 65 | 25% | +16.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 22,821 | 84 | 40% | +33.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 77,525 | 59 | 40% | +23.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 9,437 | 84 | 20% | +16.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 16.7 | 60 | 35% | +21.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 15.3 | 52 | 25% | +12.9 |
| Population (ACS) | 22,821 | 84 | 20% | +16.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 77,525 | 59 | 20% | +11.8 |
Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 6.1 | 63 | 50% | +31.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 16.7 | 60 | 30% | +18.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 84.2 | 78 | 20% | +15.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (69)
By cuisine
American 14 · Pizza 9 · Coffee 7 · Dessert 6 · Mexican 6 · Asian 5 · Burgers 5 · Bakery 4 · Italian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Quick service 16 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 7 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Casual dining 5 · Café 4 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addie Cakes-Gray,TN | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | Molton Circle | open |
| Beef 'O' Brady's Beef 'O' Brady's Fern Creek | Bar · Casual dining | American | 2913 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Blue Gill's Cafe | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 5314 Kingsport Hwy | open |
| Bob Evans Bob Evans | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2801 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Boones Creek Burger Co. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4903 N Roan St | open | |
| Buck's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3043 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5029 Bobby Hicks Hwy | open |
| Calhoun Bend Mill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | PO Box 8575 | open | |
| Casa Nostra Mediterranean Cuisine & Bakery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 405 Roy Martin Rd, 405 Roy Martin Rd | open |
| China Luck Buffet | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet | Chinese · Asian | 5205 Bobby Hicks Hwy #8 | open |
| Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 2692 Boones Creek Rd. I-26 & Boones Creek Rd. | open |
| Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 165 Old Gray Station Rd | open |
| Daylight Donuts | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 5205 Bobby Hicks Hwy | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 2694 Boones Creek #7 | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 401 Roy Martin Rd | open |
| El Lagunero | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | open | |
| Flowers Baking Co Flowers' discount Bakery Store | Bakery | Bakery | 824 Suncrest Dr | open |
| Giovanni's Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 4704 N Roan St | open |
| Gray Beef O'Brady's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2913 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Groves Groove Pub Grill and Pool Paradise | Bar | American | open | |
| Happy Wok | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4307 N Roan St #6 | open |
| Hardee's Hardee's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 4707 N Roan St | open |
| Hot Dog Hut Gray | Quick service | Hot dogs · American | 5025 Bobby Hicks Hwy | open |
| Hunt Brothers Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5357 Kingsport Hwy | open |
| Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service | 620 Suncrest Dr Ste 10 | open | |
| Johnson City Brewing Boones Creek | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 2362 Boones Creek Rd | open | |
| Johnson City Sweets | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 35 Windrow Ct | open |
| JP's Kitchen on Wheels | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 948 Suncrest Dr | open |
| KALM Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese · Asian | 5205 Bobby Hicks Hwy #4 | open |
| KFC KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1106 Spratlin Park Dr | open |
| La Carreta Mexican Restaurant La Carreta | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 5494 Bobby Hicks Hwy | open |
| Ligero Cigar Lounge | Bar | 4469 N Roan St | open | |
| Linen & Loaf Sourdough | Bakery | Bakery | 304 Hale Meade Dr | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 405 Roy Martin Rd | open |
| Luxe | Bar | 6604 Kingsport Hwy | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 4525 Roan Street North | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5016 Bobby Hicks Hwy | open |
| Miso Teriyaki House Boones Creek | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 4735 N Roan St | open |
| Our House Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 4903 N Roan St | open |
| Pal's Drivethru 24 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2866 Boones Creek Rd | open | |
| Pal's Sudden Service | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs | 2866 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Pals Sudden Service #18 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 257 Old Gray Station Rd | open | |
| Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5205 bobby hicks hwy | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5050 Bobby Hicks Hwy Washington | open |
| Pizza n Gyro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek · Pizza | 3043 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Poblanos Mexican Grill and Bar Poblanos Mexican Grill & Bar | Casual dining · Bar | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2697 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Scooter's Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 4709 N Roan St | open |
| Si Senor Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 405 Roy Martin Rd #101 | open |
| Sicily Italian Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Italian · Dessert | 405 Roy Martin Rd | open |
| Simms Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 4307 N Roan St | open |
| Smokin' Guns Bar-B-Que | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 194 Shadden Rd | open |
| Sprinkle Sister Co. | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 1036 Gray Station Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 4307 N Roan St | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 4470 N. Roan St. | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 125 Judge Gresham Rd | open |
| Stephen's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 5049 Bobby Hicks Hwy #105 | open |
| Still Waters Coffeehouse | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 5049 Bobby Hicks Hwy Ste. 104 | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2695 Boones Creek Rd #B | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 5049 Bobby Hicks Hwy | open |
| Sunami Japanese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2103 Forest Dr | open | |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 5201 Bobby Hicks Highway. | open |
| Tacos & burritos La #1 | Food truck | Mexican | 5359 Kingsport Hwy | open |
| TCBY | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 5049 Bobby Hicks Hwy Ste 105 | open |
| The Scoop Ice Cream Parlor | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies | 5205 Bobby Hicks Hwy | open |
| Travelin' Tom's Coffee of Johnson City | Café | Coffee | 114 Spurgeon Ln | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Quick service | 624 Suncrest Drive | open | |
| Waffle House Waffle House | Casual dining | Breakfast · American | 2693 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2700 Boones Creek Rd | open |
| Yong Asian House | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Asian · American | 405 Roy Martin Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 10 | 10 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 12 | 11 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 19 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 23 | 19 | 11 | 8 | — | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 23 | 20 | 11 | 9 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 26 | 23 | 10 | 13 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 27 | 24 | 10 | 14 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 29 | 26 | 13 | 13 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 28 | 24 | 12 | 12 | — | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 27 | 24 | 11 | 13 | — | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 32 | 29 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 30 | 26 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 35 | 30 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 35 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 37 | 33 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 31 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 35 | 34 | 17 | 14 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 35 | 34 | 17 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 34 | 33 | 16 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 36 | 35 | 15 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 36 | 35 | 16 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 37 | 35 | 16 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 40 | 39 | 17 | 20 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 37 | 35 | 15 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
Nearby markets (within 5 miles)
| ZCTA | Distance | Restaurants | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37663 | 4.9 mi | 19 | 2023 |