BMIE Market 37615

Washington County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	22,821 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±675 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,560 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,155 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$77,525 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,472 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$993 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$294,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,012 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	37.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	35 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 37615
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+84.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+250.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	40 (range 37–43) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37615. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.8	74	40%	+29.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.4	62	35%	+21.8
Market Momentum Score	65.0	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	22,821	84	40%	+33.5
Median household income (ACS)	77,525	59	40%	+23.5
Households (ACS)	9,437	84	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.3	52	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	22,821	84	20%	+16.7
Median household income (ACS)	77,525	59	20%	+11.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.1	63	50%	+31.3
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	84.2	78	20%	+15.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (69)

By cuisine

American 14 · Pizza 9 · Coffee 7 · Dessert 6 · Mexican 6 · Asian 5 · Burgers 5 · Bakery 4 · Italian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Quick service 16 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 7 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Casual dining 5 · Café 4 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Addie Cakes-Gray,TN	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	Molton Circle	open
Beef 'O' Brady's Beef 'O' Brady's Fern Creek	Bar · Casual dining	American	2913 Boones Creek Rd	open
Blue Gill's Cafe	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	5314 Kingsport Hwy	open
Bob Evans Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2801 Boones Creek Rd	open
Boones Creek Burger Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4903 N Roan St	open
Buck's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3043 Boones Creek Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	5029 Bobby Hicks Hwy	open
Calhoun Bend Mill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		PO Box 8575	open
Casa Nostra Mediterranean Cuisine & Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	405 Roy Martin Rd, 405 Roy Martin Rd	open
China Luck Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	Chinese · Asian	5205 Bobby Hicks Hwy #8	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2692 Boones Creek Rd. I-26 & Boones Creek Rd.	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	165 Old Gray Station Rd	open
Daylight Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	5205 Bobby Hicks Hwy	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	2694 Boones Creek #7	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	401 Roy Martin Rd	open
El Lagunero	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican		open
Flowers Baking Co Flowers' discount Bakery Store	Bakery	Bakery	824 Suncrest Dr	open
Giovanni's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	4704 N Roan St	open
Gray Beef O'Brady's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2913 Boones Creek Rd	open
Groves Groove Pub Grill and Pool Paradise	Bar	American		open
Happy Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4307 N Roan St #6	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4707 N Roan St	open
Hot Dog Hut Gray	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	5025 Bobby Hicks Hwy	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5357 Kingsport Hwy	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		620 Suncrest Dr Ste 10	open
Johnson City Brewing Boones Creek	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2362 Boones Creek Rd	open
Johnson City Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	35 Windrow Ct	open
JP's Kitchen on Wheels	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	948 Suncrest Dr	open
KALM Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	5205 Bobby Hicks Hwy #4	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1106 Spratlin Park Dr	open
La Carreta Mexican Restaurant La Carreta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5494 Bobby Hicks Hwy	open
Ligero Cigar Lounge	Bar		4469 N Roan St	open
Linen & Loaf Sourdough	Bakery	Bakery	304 Hale Meade Dr	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	405 Roy Martin Rd	open
Luxe	Bar		6604 Kingsport Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4525 Roan Street North	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5016 Bobby Hicks Hwy	open
Miso Teriyaki House Boones Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	4735 N Roan St	open
Our House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	4903 N Roan St	open
Pal's Drivethru 24	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2866 Boones Creek Rd	open
Pal's Sudden Service	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	2866 Boones Creek Rd	open
Pals Sudden Service #18	Restaurant (service type not stated)		257 Old Gray Station Rd	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5205 bobby hicks hwy	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5050 Bobby Hicks Hwy Washington	open
Pizza n Gyro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Pizza	3043 Boones Creek Rd	open
Poblanos Mexican Grill and Bar Poblanos Mexican Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2697 Boones Creek Rd	open
Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	4709 N Roan St	open
Si Senor Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	405 Roy Martin Rd #101	open
Sicily Italian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Italian · Dessert	405 Roy Martin Rd	open
Simms Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4307 N Roan St	open
Smokin' Guns Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	194 Shadden Rd	open
Sprinkle Sister Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1036 Gray Station Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	4307 N Roan St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4470 N. Roan St.	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	125 Judge Gresham Rd	open
Stephen's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5049 Bobby Hicks Hwy #105	open
Still Waters Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5049 Bobby Hicks Hwy Ste. 104	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2695 Boones Creek Rd #B	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5049 Bobby Hicks Hwy	open
Sunami Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2103 Forest Dr	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5201 Bobby Hicks Highway.	open
Tacos & burritos La #1	Food truck	Mexican	5359 Kingsport Hwy	open
TCBY	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5049 Bobby Hicks Hwy Ste 105	open
The Scoop Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	5205 Bobby Hicks Hwy	open
Travelin' Tom's Coffee of Johnson City	Café	Coffee	114 Spurgeon Ln	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Quick service		624 Suncrest Drive	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	2693 Boones Creek Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2700 Boones Creek Rd	open
Yong Asian House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	405 Roy Martin Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	17	14	7	6	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	17	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	13	7	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	9	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	23	19	11	8	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	23	20	11	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	26	23	10	13	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	27	24	10	14	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	29	26	13	13	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	28	24	12	12	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	27	24	11	13	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	32	29	15	13	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	30	26	13	12	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	35	30	12	16	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	35	30	15	14	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	37	33	16	14	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	31	30	16	13	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	35	34	17	14	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	35	34	17	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	34	33	16	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	36	35	15	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	36	35	16	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	37	35	16	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	40	39	17	20	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	37	35	15	18	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 37615. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
37663	4.9 mi	19	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.