BMIE Market 37663

Sullivan County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,230 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,033 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,268 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±362 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,617 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,399 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$76,007 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,100 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$940 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±95 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$238,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,225 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 37663
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-17.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-13.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+26.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 17–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37663. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.5	68	40%	+27.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.4	46	35%	+16.2
Market Momentum Score	13.8	14	25%	+3.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,230	76	40%	+30.3
Median household income (ACS)	76,007	57	40%	+22.7
Households (ACS)	6,268	78	20%	+15.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-17.4	15	35%	+5.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.4	59	25%	+14.7
Population (ACS)	14,230	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	76,007	57	20%	+11.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20.8	12	50%	+6.2
10-year restaurant growth	-17.4	15	30%	+4.4
20-year restaurant growth	-13.6	16	20%	+3.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

American 16 · Burgers 6 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 14 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Little Taste Of Harmony	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5400 Fort Henry Dr	open
Aaron Enterprises, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		161 Wendover Dr	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	4226 Fort Henry Dr	open
Casa Nostra	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	4250 Fort Henry Dr	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	10132 Airport Pkwy. I-81 & SR 357	open
Curbside Kitchen Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	American	4000 Fort Henry Dr	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	101 Hospitality Place	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	4222 Fort Henry Dr	open
Feathers on the fly	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Fort Henry Dr & Hillandale Dr Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4287 Fort Henry Dr	open
Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	129 Dillow Cir	open
George Creamery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4032 Fort Henry Dr	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4256 Fort Henry Drive	open
JAK’s Diner	Quick service · Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	4028 Fort Henry Dr	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	4260 Fort Henry Drive Suite 114	open
Krystal	Quick service		1005 Flagship Drive	open
La Carreta Restaurant La Carreta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	4252 Fort Henry Dr	open
Lazy's Bar and Lounge	Bar		300 Colonial Heights Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · American	4128 Fort Henry Dr B	open
McDonald's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		4924 Fort Henry Dr Ste B	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4317 Fort Henry Dr	open
Midway Social	Food truck · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Burgers	5334 Fort Henry Dr	open
Moto Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	4260 Fort Henry Dr	open
MrBeast Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4618 Fort Henry Dr	open
Ornelas Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4252 Fort Henry Dr	open
Pal's Pal's Church Hill	Quick service	Burgers · American	4224 Fort Henry Dr	open
Perkins at 4618 Fort Henry Drive Kingsport, TN Perkins	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4618 Fort Henry Drive	open
Perkins Restaurant and Bakery Perkins American Food Co.	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · American	4618 Fort Henry Dr	open
Phil's Dream Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	534 Eastern Star Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4040 Fort Henry Dr	open
Raffaele's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	4309 Fort Henry Dr	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4287 Fort Henry Dr	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	3845 Fort Henry Drive	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	101 Hospitality Pl Suite B	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4128 Ft Henry Dr Suite C	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4409 Fort Henry Dr	open
The Fisherman's Dock	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	4307 Fort Henry Dr	open
The Fried Alligator	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	5400 Fort Henry Dr	open
The Plum Tree	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4260 Fort Henry Dr #18	open
The Shack	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	BBQ	4231 Fort Henry Dr	open
Tino's Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4307 Fort Henry Dr Ste 1	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1001 Flagship Dr	open
Zachary’s	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	4223 Fort Henry Dr	open
Aaron Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 Ford Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	26	26	14	12	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	26	26	14	12	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	25	25	12	13	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	27	27	12	14	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	25	25	11	14	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	22	22	9	13	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	24	24	12	12	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	26	26	11	13	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	25	25	10	14	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	24	24	11	12	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	28	28	11	15	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	27	27	11	14	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	24	24	10	13	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	23	23	10	13	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	24	24	9	15	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	23	23	9	14	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	23	9	14	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	24	24	9	14	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	27	26	10	15	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	27	27	10	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	24	24	10	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	25	25	11	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	25	10	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	23	23	9	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	21	8	13	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	19	8	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 37663. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
37664	3.3 mi	42	2023
37615	4.9 mi	35	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.