BMIE Market 41016

Kenton County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,795 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±454 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,483 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,075 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,942 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$71,172 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,187 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,138 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±165 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$173,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,315 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 41016
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+350.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+28.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	81 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 41016. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.5	58	40%	+23.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.2	66	35%	+23.2
Market Momentum Score	81.5	81	25%	+20.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,795	63	40%	+25.1
Median household income (ACS)	71,172	49	40%	+19.5
Households (ACS)	2,483	64	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.5	51	25%	+12.7
Population (ACS)	5,795	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	71,172	49	20%	+9.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	30%	+26.7
20-year restaurant growth	350	97	20%	+19.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 3 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Bar 10 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1975	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	478 Elm St	open
Bircus Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		322 Elm St	open
Bucks Smoked BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	478 Elm St	open
Buffalo Bar	Bar		201 Elm St	open
Conserva \| Bar De Tapas \| Ludlow, Ky	Bar	Spanish / tapas	225 Elm St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	102 Elm St	open
Downward Spiral of Cheese	Bar		951 Spring St	open
IYKYK	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Burgers	18 Pike St	open
Ludlow Bromley Yacht Club	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		860 Elm St	open
Ludlow Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · American	630 Elm St	open
Ludlow Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		214 Elm St	open
Second Sight Spirits	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		301 Elm St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	478 Elm St	open
Taste Food & Wine Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		227 Elm St	open
The Keynote Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18 Pike St	open
The Lagoon Saloon	Bar · Casual dining	American	859 Elm St	open
The Oak Ludlow, KY	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	602 Oak St	open
West Covington Boosters Club	Bar		1104 John St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	5	2	—	2	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	5	2	—	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	5	2	—	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	7	2	—	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	6	3	—	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	5	2	—	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	5	2	—	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	5	2	—	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	4	2	—	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	6	2	1	1	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	5	1	—	1	—	3	NAICS2007
2009	5	1	—	1	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	5	1	—	1	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	5	1	—	1	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	7	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	8	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	11	7	3	2	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	10	6	2	2	2	3	NAICS2012
2016	9	6	3	1	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 41016. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45203	1.4 mi	5	2023
45204	1.6 mi	5	2023
41011	1.7 mi	72	2023
45214	2.0 mi	7	2023
45205	2.1 mi	10	2023
45202	2.7 mi	190	2023
41014	2.9 mi	3	2023
45219	3.3 mi	71	2023
45238	3.5 mi	60	2023
41071	3.8 mi	75	2023
45225	3.8 mi	9	2023
41073	3.9 mi	24	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.