BMIE Market 44012
Lorain County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 25,752 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 10,896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±427 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 22,581 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 9,411 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $115,567 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,735 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 44.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,537 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $368,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 11.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 36 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44012 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 16.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +5.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +56.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 36 (range 33–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44012. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 87.3 | 87 | 40% | +34.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 66.7 | 67 | 35% | +23.4 |
| Market Momentum Score | 64.3 | 64 | 25% | +16.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 25,752 | 86 | 40% | +34.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 115,567 | 89 | 40% | +35.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 10,896 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 5.9 | 50 | 35% | +17.7 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 14.0 | 57 | 25% | +14.1 |
| Population (ACS) | 25,752 | 86 | 20% | +17.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 115,567 | 89 | 20% | +17.8 |
Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 12.5 | 71 | 50% | +35.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 5.9 | 50 | 30% | +15.1 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 56.5 | 69 | 20% | +13.9 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (77)
By cuisine
American 12 · Pizza 12 · Coffee 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Italian 6 · Asian 5 · Bakery 5 · Mexican 5 · Chinese 4 · Breakfast 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · European 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Burgers 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 46 · Bar 16 · Casual dining 13 · Quick service 10 · Café 7 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Catering 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Base Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Bar | 118 Moore Rd | open | |
| Amalu Home Bakery and Confections | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 32288 Acacia Ct | open |
| Asteria, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 377 Lear Rd Ste E | open | |
| Big M Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Pizza | 153 Lear Rd | open |
| Biggby Coffee Biggby | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 33388 Walker Rd | open |
| Bistro 180/Piece-by-Piece | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering · Casual dining · Bar | 180 Lear Rd | open | |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings | Bar · Casual dining | American | 32914 Walker Road | open |
| Cafe Melissa | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering | Coffee | 32950 Walker Rd | open |
| Casita del Lago | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 33493 Lake Rd | open |
| China Chef | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 33382 Walker Rd | open |
| China King 1 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 375 Lear Rd | open |
| China Star | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 114 Moore Rd | open |
| Close Quarters Pub | Bar | 31953 Lake Rd | open | |
| Coleone's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 375 Lear Rd | open |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 33720 Walker Rd | open |
| Dirte Pi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 146 Lear Rd | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 33382 Walker Rd Unit N | open |
| Donatos Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 32950 Walker Rd | open |
| Edacious Kitchen and Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | European · American | 33451 Lake Rd | open |
| El Corral Restaurant #2 Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 445 Avon Belden Rd | open | |
| Elysium Cafe | Crepes & More | Café · Coffee shop | Coffee · Breakfast | 32457 Lake Rd | open |
| Emilie's Coffee House & Wine Bar | Coffee shop · Café · Bar | Coffee | 457 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Fenik's Frozen Custard | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 684 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Fratello's Italian Restaurant Fratello's | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 32085 Electric Blvd | open |
| Gitta's Table And Wine Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 32457 Lake Rd | open | |
| Ibiza Mediterranean Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Spanish / tapas | 33481 Lake Rd | open |
| Isla's Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 140 Lear Rd | open |
| Jake's On The Lake | Casual dining · Bar | American | 32485 Lake Rd | open |
| John Christ Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar | 32421 Walker Rd | open | |
| Johnny Malloys | Casual dining · Bar | 33475 Lake Rd | open | |
| Johnny's Boathouse | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining · Bar | Sandwiches · American | 33424 Lake Rd | open |
| Johnny's Diner | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 32822 Walker Rd | open |
| Just One More Sports Bar And Grille | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 445 Avon Belden Rd Unit A 2-4 | open | |
| Kelsey Elizabeth Cakes | Bakery | Bakery | 720 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Klingshirn Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 33050 Webber Rd | open | |
| Las Cazueles | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 445 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Las Margaritas | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 519 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Lear Road Inn | Casual dining · Bar | 164 Lear Rd | open | |
| Legacy Restaurant & Grille | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 750 Jaycox Rd | open |
| Lenny's Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 33688 Walker Rd | open |
| Love Coffee Roasters | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 33473 Lake Rd | open |
| Mandi Mae's Baking Company | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 225 Cherry Ln | open |
| Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 32730 Walker Rd, Ste F1 | open |
| Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 32730 Walker Rd | open |
| Mark PI's China Gate | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Chinese · Sushi · Asian | 32730 Walker Rd | open |
| McCarthy's Ale House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 33382 Walker Rd | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 32799 Walker Rd | open |
| Mr. Hero | Other | Sandwiches | 32730 Walker Rd Ste D2 | open |
| Old School Pizza & Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · American | 445 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Parker's Grille & Tavern | Casual dining · Bar | American | 32858 Walker Rd | open |
| Pasquale's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 153 Lear Rd | open |
| Pizza Cutter | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 33501 Lake Rd # K | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 377 Lear Rd Lorain | open |
| Pizza Plus | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 269 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Rico's Tacos & Tequila | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 33493 Lake Rd | open |
| Rio Coffee Brewery | Café | Coffee | 33388 Walker Rd | open |
| Romeo's Pizza Romeo's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 428 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Salad KraZe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian | 690 Avon Belden Rd | open |
| Sam’s Supper Club | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 33688 Walker Rd | open |
| Sapori Italian Grille | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 33481 Lake Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 31990 Walker Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 33382 Walker Rd. | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 375-E Lear Rd | open |
| Susan's Sugar And Spice | Bakery | Bakery | 32824 Walker Rd | open |
| Swingos Grand Tavern | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 32858 Walker Rd | open | |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 510 Avon-Belden Road | open |
| Tailgators Sports Bar | Bar · Casual dining | 33499 Lake Rd | open | |
| Taki's Greek Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek · Mediterranean · European | 377 Lear Rd | open |
| Thai Chili | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 32730 Walker Rd | open |
| The Breakwall Food & Spirits | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 33382 Walker Rd | open | |
| The Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · Sandwiches | 32822 WALKER Rd | open |
| The Lizard Lounge | Bar | 33214 Redwood Blvd | open | |
| The Quarry | Casual dining · Bar | American | 182 Lear Rd | open |
| The Wood Fire Grille | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 32858 Walker Rd | open |
| William Fine Sandwich Shop & Cold Creamery Co. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 140 Lear Rd | open | |
| Zak Pak Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 33475 Lake Rd | open | |
| Cole Pizza Limited | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 33501 Lake Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 33 | 27 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 27 | 23 | — | — | — | 4 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 26 | 21 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 31 | 28 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 34 | 28 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 29 | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 30 | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 28 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 27 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 37 | 27 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 39 | 29 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 40 | 31 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 40 | 31 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 42 | 35 | 11 | 20 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 45 | 38 | 11 | 22 | 4 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 44 | 37 | 9 | 21 | 6 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 41 | 33 | 14 | 16 | 3 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 42 | 34 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 41 | 33 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 45 | 37 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 43 | 35 | 17 | 14 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 45 | 36 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 41 | 32 | 15 | 15 | — | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 42 | 34 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 42 | 35 | 18 | 15 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 40 | 34 | 17 | 15 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 43 | 36 | 22 | 12 | — | 3 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 43 | 36 | 22 | 12 | — | 3 | NAICS2022 |