BMIE Market 44054

Lorain County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,806 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±171 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,858 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±320 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,591 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,441 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,572 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,173 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,094 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$184,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,283 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44054
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.14) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44054. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.14, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.5	67	40%	+27.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.3	52	35%	+18.3
Market Momentum Score	34.6	35	25%	+8.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,806	74	40%	+29.7
Median household income (ACS)	75,572	56	40%	+22.4
Households (ACS)	5,858	77	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	35%	+6.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.6	78	25%	+19.5
Population (ACS)	12,806	74	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	75,572	56	20%	+11.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	30%	+5.8
20-year restaurant growth	10	40	20%	+7.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · American 4 · Coffee 4 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 6 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5 & Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4950 Transportation Dr	open
7 Brew Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	5219 Detroit Rd	open
Amber Oaks Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4798 E Lake Rd	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	5235 Detroit Rd Detroit Rd & Abbe Rd N	open
Biggby Coffee Biggby	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4100 E Lake Rd	open
Campi's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza		open
Caribe Soul Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Coffee shop	Caribbean · Coffee	4116 E Lake Rd	open
Cookies by Rita	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5308 Reserve Way	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	5205 Detroit Rd. I-90 & North Ridge Rd	open
Dock's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		4540 E Lake Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	5322 Abbe Rd.	open
Doughboy's Pizza & Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	5402 E Lake Rd	open
Final Touch Entertainment	Bar		685 Roberts St	open
Habit burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5404 E Lake Rd	open
Laura's Luvin Oven	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5502 Colorado Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4112 E Lake Rd	open
Mr. Hero at Sheffield Crossing Mr Hero Mansfield Ohio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Burgers	5231 Detroit Rd	open
Nino's Bar on The Lake	Bar		4975 E Lake Rd	open
Outlaw Billiards	Bar		5348 E Lake Rd	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4446 Abbe Rd	open
Pezz Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		5348 E Lake Rd	open
Quaker Steak & Lube	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4900 Transportation Dr	open
Risko's	Casual dining · Bar		4219 E Lake Rd	open
Sorrento Ristorante & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	5223 Detroit Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4246 E Lake Rd	open
The Cardinal Scoop	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	4282 E Lake Rd	open
Work'inn Cafe	Café	Coffee	4343 Colorado Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	11	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	14	9	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	15	9	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	17	10	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1998	15	8	3	4	1	7	NAICS1997
1999	15	9	3	5	1	6	NAICS1997
2000	16	10	3	6	1	6	NAICS1997
2001	17	13	4	9	—	4	NAICS1997
2002	17	12	6	5	1	5	NAICS1997
2003	17	10	5	5	—	7	NAICS2002
2004	13	8	5	3	—	5	NAICS2002
2005	18	13	7	5	1	5	NAICS2002
2006	16	10	6	4	—	6	NAICS2002
2007	18	12	6	5	—	6	NAICS2002
2008	18	13	6	6	—	5	NAICS2007
2009	19	14	7	7	—	5	NAICS2007
2010	18	12	4	7	1	6	NAICS2007
2011	16	11	5	5	1	5	NAICS2007
2012	14	10	4	5	1	4	NAICS2012
2013	16	12	6	5	1	4	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	6	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	6	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	4	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	13	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44054. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44055	3.4 mi	11	2023
44052	4.1 mi	32	2023
44012	4.2 mi	36	2023
44011	4.8 mi	64	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.