BMIE Market 46406

Lake County, Indiana · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,078 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,487 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±374 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,900 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,523 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$35,839 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,230 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$995 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±71 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$91,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,307 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 46406
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-9.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 46406. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Indiana and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 606, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	43.1	43	40%	+17.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.2	55	35%	+19.3
Market Momentum Score	72.5	73	25%	+18.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,001	69	40%	+27.7
Median household income (ACS)	35,839	4	40%	+1.6
Households (ACS)	3,487	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.1	68	25%	+17.0
Population (ACS)	9,001	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	35,839	4	20%	+0.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	42.9	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 10 · Sandwiches 6 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · Pizza 4 · Seafood 4 · Steakhouse 4 · Mexican 3 · BBQ 2 · African 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Quick service 13 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
18th Street Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		332 Matthews St	open
Big Back Shacq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	421 Hovey St	open
Chops Lounge	Bar		3100 W 5th Ave	open
Church's Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American		open
Cinnabon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2501 Burr St	open
Council Oak Steaks and Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	5400 W 29th Ave	open
Don B's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	1 Buffington Harbor Dr	open
El Norteno	Quick service	Mexican	5708 W 5th Ave	open
Elio's Hot Dogs & Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	6210 W 5th Ave	open
Empire Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5639 W 5th Ave	open
Euro taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Indian	5582 W 25th Ave	open
Get Jerked	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4600 W 5th Ave	open
Hard Rock Cafe Northern Indiana Hard Rock Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5400 W 29th Ave, Gary, IN, 46406, US	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5301 West 15Th Avenue	open
Jasnak's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5318 W 25th Ave	open
JJ Fish and Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Seafood	2567 Burr St	open
Kelly's Soul Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	5025 W 5th Ave	open
Lakeshore Lounge A.D.	Bar		1 Buffington Harbor Dr	open
Motha Truk'n Kabobs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5582 W 25TH Ave	open
Phillys Steak & Lemonade Inc	Quick service	Steakhouse · Sandwiches	5404 W 25th Ave	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2510 Burr St	open
Ray's Shrimp House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	456 Clark Rd	open
Rico's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5404 W 25th Ave	open
Shark's Fish & Chicken on 5th Sharks Fish & Chicken	Quick service	Seafood · Chicken / wings	3740 W 5th Ave	open
Sophia’s Gourmet Sandwiches And Italian Ice	Dessert · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1365 Burr St	open
Star Kitchen Noodle Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho	1 Buffington Harbor Dr	open
SteelCity CheeseSteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	3101 W 5th Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2501 Burr St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3910 W 5th Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2510 Burr St	open
Tavern of the Oaks	Bar · Casual dining		6201 W 25th Ave	open
The Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	1 Buffington Harbor Dr	open
TIZZIE'S LeGRIL FUMOIR	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · African	456 Clark Rd #5	open
Tony's Ribs Fish & Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	456 Clark Rd	open
Trocadero Restaurant Lounge & Liquor	Bar · Casual dining		5013 W 15th Ave	open
Truck Stops Of America	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2510 Burr St	open
Uncle Pigs Bbq	Quick service · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	3910 W 5th Ave	open
Vienna Hot Dogs & Snacks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	3801 W 4th Ave	open
Ziggy Q'S Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American		open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	11	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	11	7	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	14	9	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	16	11	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	15	10	1	7	2	4	NAICS1997
1999	16	11	2	7	2	4	NAICS1997
2000	15	10	2	6	2	4	NAICS1997
2001	13	9	2	6	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	12	9	2	7	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	1	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	15	8	1	7	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	14	7	—	7	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	15	8	—	8	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	17	11	2	9	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	15	10	2	8	—	3	NAICS2007
2009	17	12	1	11	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	15	11	1	10	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	14	11	1	10	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	—	9	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	11	8	—	8	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	—	9	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	10	7	1	6	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	2	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	11	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 46406. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
46404	2.3 mi	5	2023
46323	2.6 mi	24	2023
46402	3.7 mi	5	2023
46312	3.8 mi	28	2023
46407	4.5 mi	5	2023
46320	4.6 mi	27	2023
46408	4.6 mi	18	2023
46322	4.8 mi	71	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.