BMIE Market 46402

Lake County, Indiana · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,836 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±807 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,258 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±252 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,726 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,676 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$33,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,802 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$951 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±110 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$85,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 46402
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-54.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 3–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.89) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	29 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	6 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 46402. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.89, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Indiana and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 606, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	39.0	39	40%	+15.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34.3	34	35%	+12.0
Market Momentum Score	5.6	6	25%	+1.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,836	63	40%	+25.2
Median household income (ACS)	33,529	3	40%	+1.3
Households (ACS)	2,258	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.6	78	25%	+19.5
Population (ACS)	5,836	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	33,529	3	20%	+0.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 6 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-37.5	7	50%	+3.7
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.4
20-year restaurant growth	-54.6	2	20%	+0.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Mexican 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 5 · Quick service 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Carlisle 9th Avenue Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		900 Broadway	open
Eat Your Heart Out Deli Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		487 Broadway	open
Food Express Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	487 Broadway	open
Great Lakes Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	201 Mississippi St	open
Juice Jung Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1010 W 5th Ave	open
JuJu's Philly Steaks & Fresh Lemonade	Quick service	American · Steakhouse	1010 W 5th Ave	open
Kfc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	900 Broadway	open
L & J Fast Food Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		511 Vermont St # 19	open
Loft Adiq Ultra Lounge	Bar		752 Broadway	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1527 W 5th Ave	open
Metro Center One Stop Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	100 W 4th Ave	open
Mr. Taco Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1013 Broadway	open
R&R Sports Bar And Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		500 E 5th Ave	open
Rally's	Quick service		910 W 5th Ave	open
Shark's Fish & Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	511 Vermont St	open
Smart Smoothie	Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar	Juice / smoothies	455 Massachusetts St	open
Steel & Spice Caribbean Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Caribbean	752 Broadway	open
Taqueria El Viejon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2810 E 5th Ave	open
The Diamond Center & Bennigans Grill & Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	500 E 5th Ave	open
Watch Out Ohh Wee Sweet Tea	Restaurant (service type not stated)		921 Broadway	open
Da Catch	Quick service		1013 Broadway	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	12	8	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	14	10	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	11	6	—	6	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	12	6	—	6	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	13	6	1	5	—	5	NAICS1997
2001	12	8	2	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	12	8	1	5	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	14	11	3	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	14	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	14	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	13	10	3	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	19	12	3	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	9	2	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	11	3	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	10	2	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 46402. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
46407	2.8 mi	5	2023
46404	3.0 mi	5	2023
46406	3.7 mi	10	2023
46403	4.1 mi	19	2023
46409	4.9 mi	4	2023
46405	4.9 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.