BMIE Market 46405

Lake County, Indiana · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,184 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±544 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,357 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±312 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,746 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,791 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,881 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,054 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,144 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$139,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,084 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 46405
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-47.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.53) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	31 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 46405. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.53, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Indiana and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 606, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	56.3	56	40%	+22.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.4	45	35%	+15.9
Market Momentum Score	31.1	31	25%	+7.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,184	74	40%	+29.4
Median household income (ACS)	60,881	31	40%	+12.4
Households (ACS)	4,357	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15.4	16	35%	+5.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.0	76	25%	+19.0
Population (ACS)	12,184	74	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	60,881	31	20%	+6.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 31 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-15.4	16	30%	+4.7
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

American 8 · Mexican 5 · Pizza 5 · Dessert 4 · Coffee 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Seafood 2 · Bakery 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 10 · Quick service 10 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 4 · Food truck 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Catering 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Babe's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4401 Liverpool Rd	open
Bajo Cero MICHOACANA	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Latin American (other) · Dessert	739 Central Ave	open
Banda Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1401 Ripley Street	open
Ben's Bar	Casual dining · Bar		2935 Central Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2203 Ripley Street	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1401 Ripley St	open
Country Pride Restaurant Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings · American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1201 Ripley St	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2433 Ripley St 2433 Ripley St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2345 Ripley St	open
Evil shed Bar And Grill	Bar	BBQ · American	2500 Montgomery St	open
He Ain't Here Lounge	Bar		2661 Decatur St	open
Hen’s House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		2970 Dekalb St	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	2930 Decalb St	open
J & J's Pizza Shack J&J's Pizza Shack Valparaiso	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	3146 Central Ave	open
JJ's Pizza Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
Johnson's Fish & Shrimp	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Seafood · Sandwiches	2619 Central Ave	open
K C Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Bar		2942 Dekalb St	open
Kimmie's Pub & Grub	Bar		2808 DeKalb St	open
La Fonda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2898 Dekalb St	open
La Morenita Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	330 Central Ave	open
Lf Nortons	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2618 Central Ave	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3446 Central Ave	open
Maxwell Street NWI	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		4700 Central Ave	open
Mazamitla Lake Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5025 Central Ave	open
McDonald's	Quick service		1495 Ripley St	open
Muncie's Lounge	Bar		4106 Central Ave #2419	open
My Bar/Mi Cantina	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3425 Central Ave	open
Nancys Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Coffee · American	2580 Central Ave, Lake Station, IN 46405	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3200 Central Ave	open
Ps Eats & Treats	Food truck · Quick service	Hot dogs	2900 E 37th Ave	open
Ruben's Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Hot dogs	2230 Ripley St	open
Smokin' E's BBQ	Catering	BBQ · American	2463 Ripley St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	1235 Ripley St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2151 Ripley St	open
Tacos Burritos Y Mas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2401 Central Ave	open
Tap House 1233 Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1233 Central Ave	open
The Draft House	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4825 Central Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3420 Central Avenue	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	21	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	22	17	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	26	20	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	26	20	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	30	21	7	11	3	8	NAICS1997
1999	26	17	5	10	2	8	NAICS1997
2000	24	15	4	10	1	7	NAICS1997
2001	24	15	6	8	1	7	NAICS1997
2002	20	11	2	8	1	9	NAICS1997
2003	19	11	2	8	1	8	NAICS2002
2004	19	11	2	8	1	8	NAICS2002
2005	20	14	4	9	1	6	NAICS2002
2006	19	13	2	10	1	6	NAICS2002
2007	17	10	1	8	1	7	NAICS2002
2008	18	11	2	8	1	7	NAICS2007
2009	20	13	3	9	1	7	NAICS2007
2010	19	12	3	8	1	7	NAICS2007
2011	18	12	2	9	1	6	NAICS2007
2012	21	14	5	8	1	7	NAICS2012
2013	20	13	5	7	1	7	NAICS2012
2014	22	15	7	7	1	7	NAICS2012
2015	20	12	4	7	1	8	NAICS2012
2016	22	14	4	9	1	8	NAICS2012
2017	18	11	3	7	—	7	NAICS2017
2018	17	11	3	7	—	6	NAICS2017
2019	17	11	3	7	—	6	NAICS2017
2020	15	9	—	7	—	6	NAICS2017
2021	16	10	—	7	—	6	NAICS2017
2022	17	11	—	8	—	6	NAICS2022
2023	17	11	—	8	—	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 46405. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
46403	2.5 mi	19	2023
46407	3.5 mi	5	2023
46409	3.6 mi	4	2023
46342	4.0 mi	54	2023
46368	4.5 mi	78	2023
46402	4.9 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.