BMIE Market 55409

Hennepin County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±897 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,255 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±401 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,615 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,149 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,305 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,842 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,334 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±101 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$378,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,350 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55409
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+9.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+9.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+64.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 19–31) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	34 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55409. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.9	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.2	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	34.1	34	25%	+8.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,188	72	40%	+29.0
Median household income (ACS)	98,305	80	40%	+32.0
Households (ACS)	5,255	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	9.5	54	35%	+18.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.6	36	25%	+9.0
Population (ACS)	11,188	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	98,305	80	20%	+16.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8	20	50%	+10.1
10-year restaurant growth	9.5	54	30%	+16.1
20-year restaurant growth	9.5	39	20%	+7.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Coffee 9 · American 6 · Asian 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Bakery 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Cuban 1 · Filipino 1 · French 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Café 9 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anodyne Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	4301 Nicollet Ave S	open
Apoy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino	4301 Nicollet Ave	open
Bar Pizza Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		322 W 38th St	open
Bauhaus Brew Labs	Brewery / taproom		4243 S Grand Ave	open
Big L's Soul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern	805 E 38th St	open
Blackbird	Café	Coffee	3800 Nicollet Ave	open
Boludo EL 38	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	8 W 38th St	open
Bruegger's Bagels Bruegger's Bagels	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	4554 Nicollet Ave	open
Bûcheron	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	4257 Nicollet Ave	open
Butter Bakery Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	3700 Nicollet Ave	open
Cocina Latina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	3764 Nicollet Ave	open
Don Oishi Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3752 Nicollet Ave	open
Dragon Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	3752 Nicollet Ave	open
Easy Day Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4161 Grand Ave S	open
Five Watt Coffee Five Watt Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3745 Nicollet Ave	open
Good Times	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	322 W 38th St	open
Grand Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3804 Grand Ave S	open
Harriet's Inn	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4000 Lyndale Ave S	open
Khaluna	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	4000 Lyndale Ave S	open
Kyatchi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3758 Nicollet Ave	open
La Cabra Borracha	Bar		4306 Wentworth Ave S	open
Little Bird Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3749 Nicollet Ave	open
Lux Club	Bar		3836 S 4th Ave	open
Mohamed Gandi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		310 E 38th St	open
Nighthawks	Casual dining · Bar	American	3753 Nicollet Ave	open
Petite León	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	American	3800 Nicollet Ave	open
Piccolo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4300 Bryant Ave S	open
Revival	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ · American	4257 Nicollet Ave S	open
Rincon 38	Bar	Spanish / tapas	3801 Grand Ave S	open
Sebastian Joe's Kingfield Social Sebastian Joe's	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	4301 Nicollet Ave	open
Shorty and Wags Original Chicken Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3753 Nicollet Ave	open
Thai Curry	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3752 Nicollet Ave	open
The Curry Diva	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Indian	3700 Nicollet Ave	open
The Lowbrow The Counter Custom Burgers	Casual dining · Bar	American · Burgers	4244 Nicollet Ave	open
Twist Davis Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4257 Nicollet Ave	open
Victor's 1959 Cafe	Café	Cuban · Latin American (other) · Coffee	3756 Grand Ave S	open
Kruse Markit Bistro, Coffee And Wine Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4237 Nicollet Ave	closed
Sugar Sugar Candy	Dessert		3803 Grand Ave S	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	24	24	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	25	23	7	10	6	—	NAICS1997
1999	21	19	5	9	5	—	NAICS1997
2000	22	21	6	10	5	—	NAICS1997
2001	21	20	7	8	5	—	NAICS1997
2002	18	18	6	6	6	—	NAICS1997
2003	22	21	6	7	8	—	NAICS2002
2004	22	21	6	8	7	—	NAICS2002
2005	20	19	5	6	8	—	NAICS2002
2006	19	18	5	6	7	1	NAICS2002
2007	21	19	7	7	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	20	8	7	5	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	20	7	8	5	—	NAICS2007
2010	21	21	7	7	7	—	NAICS2007
2011	21	21	8	7	6	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	18	8	4	6	—	NAICS2012
2013	21	21	9	7	5	—	NAICS2012
2014	20	20	9	6	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	21	21	11	4	6	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	22	12	5	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	31	31	16	11	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	26	25	14	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	25	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	25	14	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	22	13	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	24	23	13	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	23	12	8	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55409. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55408	1.1 mi	144	2023
55407	1.4 mi	73	2023
55419	1.7 mi	36	2023
55410	2.1 mi	38	2023
55404	2.4 mi	53	2023
55403	2.7 mi	54	2023
55417	2.8 mi	23	2023
55406	3.0 mi	58	2023
55405	3.1 mi	39	2023
55416	3.2 mi	63	2023
55402	3.2 mi	83	2023
55415	3.3 mi	20	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.