BMIE Market 55438

Hennepin County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,701 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±995 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,158 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±434 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,249 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,640 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$106,432 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,650 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,660 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±119 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$414,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,719 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55438
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-36.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55438. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.8	81	40%	+32.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.7	62	35%	+21.6
Market Momentum Score	14.4	14	25%	+3.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,701	77	40%	+30.9
Median household income (ACS)	106,432	85	40%	+33.9
Households (ACS)	7,158	80	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	35%	+5.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.5	93	25%	+23.4
Population (ACS)	15,701	77	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	106,432	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-22.2	12	50%	+6.1
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	30%	+5.1
20-year restaurant growth	-12.5	16	20%	+3.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annie K's Cookies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6101 W 98th St	open
BGU's OASIS	Coffee shop · Café · Bar	Coffee	6820 Auto Club Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	10801 Bloomington Ferry Rd	open
Cinco De Mayo Mexican Grill Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9332 Ensign Ave S	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	10700 Bloomington Ferry Rd	open
Don Ho Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7700 W Old Shakopee Rd	open
El Loro Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9332 Ensign Ave S	open
Frostbike	Bakery	Bakery	6400 W 105th St	open
Lee Stokes Advertising Artist	Bar		9128 Decatur Ave S	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	9240 Bloomington Ferry Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9352 Ensign Ave S	open
Scoops Ice Cream and More	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7700 W Old Shakopee Rd	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	10700 Bloomington Ferry Rd	open
Sweet Assurance	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	10933 Sumter Ave S	open
Thai Pepper	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Chinese · Asian	9350 Ensign Ave S	open
West Side Perk	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	7700 W Old Shakopee Rd	open
Zeke's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	American · Juice / smoothies	7700 W Old Shakopee Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	1	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	1	9	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	1	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	2	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	11	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	2	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	9	2	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55438. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55437	2.2 mi	18	2023
55344	3.5 mi	100	2023
55439	3.5 mi	17	2023
55431	3.6 mi	44	2023
55347	3.8 mi	9	2023
55435	4.3 mi	60	2023
55378	4.6 mi	56	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.