BMIE Market 63121

St. Louis County, Missouri · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,008 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,356 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,142 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±773 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,602 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,491 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$42,701 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,983 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$985 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±72 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$95,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,913 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 63121
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-30.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-47.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.46) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	18 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 63121. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.46, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Missouri and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 668, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.8	55	40%	+21.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.2	45	35%	+15.8
Market Momentum Score	18.0	18	25%	+4.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,008	85	40%	+34.1
Median household income (ACS)	42,701	8	40%	+3.2
Households (ACS)	11,142	88	20%	+17.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.2	84	25%	+20.9
Population (ACS)	25,008	85	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	42,701	8	20%	+1.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 18 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.3	22	50%	+11.2
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	-30.8	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (47)

By cuisine

American 14 · Chicken / wings 5 · Chinese 5 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Dessert 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Quick service 11 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 7 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Buffet 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
8418 Natural Bridge Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8418 Natural Bridge Rd	open
B and I Eatery	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	3770 Jennings Station Rd	open
Big L Chop Suey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	8949 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Blimpie	Quick service		8455 University Place Dr	open
Breakaway Cafe	Casual dining	American	8418 Natural Bridge Rd	open
C&K Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4390 Jennings Station Rd	open
Capri's Lounge	Bar		8911 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Chop Suey Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian · American	135 N Oaks Plaza	open
Christine's Coffee, LLC	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	8406 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	7215 Natural Bridge Road	open
City Of Cool Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Signal Hill Dr	open
Dalia's Delicias	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	7240 Natural Bridge Rd.	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	1 University Blvd	open
El Alebrije Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		129 N Oaks Plaza	open
I DON'T KNOW	Bar		102 Evans Ln	open
Imo's Pizza Imo's Fans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	121 N Oaks Plaza	open
Imo's Pizza Imo's Fans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8951 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Jesse's Bar&Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		7312 Natural Bridge Rd	open
JMC Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	8624 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	7232 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Long John Silver's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	Natural Bridge Road	open
Lowes Entertainment	Bar · Casual dining · Café	Coffee	8911 Natural Bridge Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7171 Natural Bridge Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1790 S Florissant Rd	open
Moon’s Treats	Quick service		7318 Florissant Rd	open
Northwoods Police Dept	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4600 Oakridge Blvd	open
Oriental Chop Suey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7252 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Oscar's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7520 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Penn Station East Coast Subs Penn Station East Coast Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1 N Oaks Plaza	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1 University Blvd	open
Rib Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	8642 Natural Bridge Road	open
Rich's famous Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	8418 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Rudii Bee's Snack Shop	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	8503 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Saint Louis Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chinese · American	8624 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Spodie's Lounge	Bar		6275 St Louis Ave	open
St. Louis Fish and Chicken Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Chicken / wings	149 N Oaks Plaza	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	137 N Oaks Plaza	open
The Nosh	Buffet		1 University Blvd	open
Wayback Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1790 S Florissant Rd	open
WELCH'S	Bar		6275 Saint Louis Ave	open
Whalens bar	Bar · Casual dining		3837 St Anns Ln	open
Where Ya From	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	8947 Natural Bridge Rd	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	7201 Natural Bridge Rd Ste B	open
Wow Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1 University Blvd	open
Yang Cheng Chop Suey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3705 Jennings Station Rd	open
Year Of The Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	7289 Natural Bridge Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	41	34	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1995	38	33	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	43	39	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	39	36	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	38	30	6	24	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	37	29	5	24	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	33	27	5	22	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	32	26	6	20	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	33	26	5	21	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	33	26	5	21	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	30	23	4	19	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	32	24	4	20	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	29	23	5	17	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	28	23	4	18	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	29	23	5	17	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	32	23	7	16	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	29	21	3	16	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	36	24	5	19	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	29	21	4	17	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	32	21	4	17	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	35	24	6	18	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	32	21	4	17	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	34	22	4	18	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	35	20	3	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	30	19	—	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	34	23	3	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	28	20	—	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	19	—	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	19	—	15	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	18	—	14	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 63121. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
63133	1.8 mi	6	2023
63120	2.4 mi	8	2023
63140	2.5 mi	3	2016
63135	3.0 mi	23	2023
63130	3.3 mi	69	2023
63134	3.3 mi	15	2023
63136	3.4 mi	39	2023
63114	3.4 mi	44	2023
63112	3.5 mi	19	2023
63115	3.7 mi	18	2023
63113	4.5 mi	8	2023
63105	4.6 mi	68	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.