BMIE Market 66206

Johnson County, Kansas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,153 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±950 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,738 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±397 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,693 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,071 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$174,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,002 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,262 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±345 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$672,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±47,480 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 66206
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+61.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+162.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 23–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	62 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 66206. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kansas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 462, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.3	83	40%	+33.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.8	76	35%	+26.5
Market Momentum Score	62.0	62	25%	+15.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,153	74	40%	+29.4
Median household income (ACS)	174,394	98	40%	+39.2
Households (ACS)	4,738	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	61.5	86	35%	+30.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.3	45	25%	+11.2
Population (ACS)	12,153	74	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	174,394	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	61.5	86	30%	+25.9
20-year restaurant growth	75	76	20%	+15.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 7 · Bakery 6 · BBQ 3 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bakery 7 · Bar 4 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Casual dining 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blanc Burgers + Bottles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10583 Mission Rd	open
Blue Koi Blue Koi Noodles & Dumplings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	10581 Mission Rd	open
Burg & Barrel - North Leawood Burg & Barrel - Lenexa	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	3618 W 95th St	open
Cafe Virgo & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	10573 Mission Rd	open
Chang's Mission Farms, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10581 Mission Rd	open
Comeg Enterprises Llc.dba Bluestem	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10551 Mission Rd	open
Dewey's Pizza Dewey's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3615 W 95th St	open
Duck Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	3630 W 95th St	open
Enjoy Pure Food + Drink	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian	10573 Mission Rd	open
Foo's Fabulous Cafe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9421 Mission Rd	open
Fritz's Smoked Meats and Superior Sausage Company	Specialty food shop	BBQ · American	10326 State Line Rd	open
Gates Bar-B-Q Gates Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	2001 W 103rd Terrace	open
Houlihan's Houlihan's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	8700 State Line Rd	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	10314 Stateline Rd	open
Kmc One, Llc.dba Rye	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10551 Mission Rd	open
Martin City Brewing Company Pizza and Taproom Martin City Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4000 Indian Creek Pkwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	3860 W 95th	open
Meat Mitch Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3620 W 95th St	open
Natasha's Mulberry & Mott	Bakery	Bakery	10573 Mission Rd	open
O'Neill's Restaurant and Bar	Bar	British / Irish pub food	9417 Mission Rd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	8300 Mission Road	open
Paros Estiatorio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	10561 Mission Rd	open
Peachwave	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9424 Mission Rd	open
Room 39	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10561 Mission Rd	open
Rye Leawood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery · American	10551 Mission Rd	open
Sarpino's Pizzeria Sarpino's Pizzeria - USA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3804 W 95th St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3700 W. 95th St.	open
Tavern at Mission Farms	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	10681 Mission Rd	open
The Blacklist	Bar		10519 Mission Rd	open
The Kansas City Wine School	Bar		10561 Mission Rd	open
The Lemon Cake Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	10683 Mission Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	9424 Mission Rd	open
We B Nuts & Stuff	Dessert		9437 Mission Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	13	4	5	4	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	1	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	5	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	4	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	5	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	16	5	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	17	7	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	20	10	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	21	9	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	19	8	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	22	10	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	21	11	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 66206. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
64114	1.1 mi	78	2023
66207	1.3 mi	24	2023
66211	2.5 mi	29	2023
64131	2.5 mi	30	2023
66208	2.7 mi	32	2023
66212	3.3 mi	100	2023
66251	3.6 mi	—
66204	3.9 mi	44	2023
64113	4.0 mi	21	2023
66209	4.1 mi	34	2023
64132	4.4 mi	7	2023
64137	4.5 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.