BMIE Market 77702

Jefferson County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,121 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±646 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,361 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±240 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,893 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,404 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$62,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,356 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,147 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$137,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59,036 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 77702
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	27.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-21.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-15.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 13–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.39) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 77702. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.39, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	45.5	46	40%	+18.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.1	40	35%	+14.1
Market Momentum Score	25.4	25	25%	+6.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,121	53	40%	+21.1
Median household income (ACS)	62,125	34	40%	+13.5
Households (ACS)	1,361	55	20%	+10.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	35%	+18.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	35.3	16	25%	+4.0
Population (ACS)	3,121	53	20%	+10.6
Median household income (ACS)	62,125	34	20%	+6.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-21.4	12	50%	+6.2
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	30%	+16.2
20-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	20%	+3.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Seafood 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 7 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Café 2 · Dessert 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A La Mexicana Auténtico Sabor	Restaurant (service type not stated)		190 N 11th St	open
BB's Tex-Orleans BB's Tex-Orleans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2325 Calder Ave	open
Carrabba's Italian Grill Carrabba's Italian Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Italian	1498 N 10th St	open
Chapa's Tamales	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2305 Calder St	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3095 Calder Avenue	open
Dawn Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	125 N 11th St	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		3755 College St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	920 N. 11th St	open
Ellis Brothers Management Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3000 W Cedar St	open
Elvis' Patio Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2560 North St	open
Flame 2.0 Daiquiri & Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		39 N 11th St Ste A	open
Great China Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3135 Calder St	open
Hole in the Wall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · Asian · Seafood	2305 Calder Ave	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		680 N 11th St	open
Luke's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2328 Calder Ave	open
Mardi Gras Lounge	Bar		39 N 11th St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	190 N I 10	open
Oz Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2417 Calder Ave	open
Popeyes® Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	125 N 11th St	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · American	490 N 11th St	open
Rao's Bakery Coffee Cafe Rao's Bakery Calder	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	2596 Calder St	open
Ree, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3000 W Cedar St	open
Rockin Crab and Seafood Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Rosie's Soul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2306 Hazel Ave	open
Sister Girls' Cantina	Bar	Mexican		open
SuperAntojo de Hidalgo	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Bakery · American	2570 Calder Ave	open
Texas Desserts & Coffee Cafe, Inc.	Coffee shop	Coffee	550 N 10th St	open
Tmc Foods Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		55 Sawyer St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	10	2	7	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	16	15	6	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	14	5	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	16	15	6	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	13	3	8	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	16	13	3	9	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	14	11	2	8	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	9	6	3	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	4	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	3	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	8	2	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	2	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	3	5	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	14	—	5	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	15	—	6	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	14	—	5	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	3	6	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 77702. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
77701	1.6 mi	47	2023
77703	2.2 mi	7	2023
77706	2.5 mi	94	2023
77707	3.2 mi	37	2023
77708	4.7 mi	22	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.