BMIE Market 78236

Bexar County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,635 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±602 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	443 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±70 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,392 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	232 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,219 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,680 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	21.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±49 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	4.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 78236
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	1 (range 1–1) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1994–2016 (8 points, +0.0 per year, r² 1.00) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78236. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1994–2016, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 1.00, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	51.9	52	40%	+20.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.0	73	35%	+25.6
Market Momentum Score	37.8	38	25%	+9.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,635	67	40%	+26.7
Median household income (ACS)	69,219	46	40%	+18.3
Households (ACS)	443	34	20%	+6.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	1.3	100	25%	+38.4
Population (ACS)	7,635	67	20%	+20.5
Median household income (ACS)	69,219	46	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+29.8
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+7.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 9 · Coffee 5 · American 3 · Bakery 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · French 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1

By type

Quick service 16 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Café 5 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	1451 Stewart St Bldg 7025	open
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Quick service		2180 Reese Street building 1385	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Burgers · Dessert · Bakery · American	1530 Femoyer St	open
Baskin-Robbins Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Other · Dessert	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	2180 Reese St	open
Beasley’s Bar	Bar			open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	2180 Reese St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1451 Stewart St. Bldg 7025	open
Godfathers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1980 Kenly Ave	open
Great American Cookies Great American Cookies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2180 Reese St Bldg 1385	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	2250 Kelly Dr	open
Lonestar Lounge	Bar	American	1650 Kenly Ave	open
Manchu Wok Manchu Wok	Quick service		2180 Reese Street, Bldg. 1385 San Antonio, TX 78236	open
NCO Club	Bar			open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Café · Fast casual	Coffee · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	2210 Kenly Ave	open
Popeyes Popeyes	Quick service		(Military Post Access Required) BMT Food Court, 1451 Stewart St - Bldg 7025	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2250 Kelly Dr	open
Qdoba Qdoba	Quick service		1385 Reese	open
Smokin' Joe's BBQ Smokin' Joes Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2444 Larson St, #2438	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Coffee	2200 Berquist Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	Lackland Afb Tx Main Base Exchange	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1530 Femoyer Ave Bldg 10345	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1100 Wilford Hall Loop, Bldg 45	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	236 Kirk Newton St, Bldg 2041	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	1100 Wilford Hall Loop BLDG 45, Surgical Center Food Court	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1530 Femoyer St N Troop Store Foodcourt	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1451 Stewart St Bldg 7025	open
The Refuge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	French	1243-1287, Truemper St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2007	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78236. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78227	1.1 mi	90	2023
78243	2.1 mi	1	2014
78242	2.6 mi	21	2023
78226	3.2 mi	12	2023
78237	4.2 mi	57	2023
78211	4.4 mi	40	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.