BMIE Market 78226

Bexar County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,554 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,071 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,305 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±262 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,648 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,087 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$33,398 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,549 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,091 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±185 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$107,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,653 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78226
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-20.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 6–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	80 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78226. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	39.8	40	40%	+15.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.7	50	35%	+17.4
Market Momentum Score	79.5	80	25%	+19.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,554	65	40%	+25.8
Median household income (ACS)	33,398	3	40%	+1.3
Households (ACS)	2,305	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.3	42	25%	+10.5
Population (ACS)	6,554	65	20%	+12.9
Median household income (ACS)	33,398	3	20%	+0.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	71.4	75	20%	+15.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Mexican 8 · Latin American (other) 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · American 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arcoiris Ice Cream and Candy	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	1435 Frio City Rd #1405	open
Blanquita Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	2110 Cupples Rd	open
Capo's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3331 General Hudnell Dr	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1850 S. General McMullen Drive	open
Dania Maria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1401 Cupples Rd	open
Fajita Taco Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1816 W Thompson Pl	open
Frankie Gs Sports Bar	Bar		2008 Cupples Rd	open
Fred's Fish Fry Fred's Fish Fry	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food	1126 Cupples Rd	open
Golden Gate Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1840 S General McMullen Dr	open
J & R's Hideout	Bar		2139 Frio City Rd	open
La Palapa K-Tracha	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	1359 Kirk Pl	open
Manny's Corner Pocket	Bar		2110 Frio City Rd	open
Maria's Cafe Maria's Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Breakfast	1401 Cupples Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1846 S General McMullen Dr	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1820 S General McMullen Dr Bexar	open
Port San Antonio Food Truck Court	Food truck		3007 General Hudnell Dr	open
Regios Tacos A Vapor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2000 Cupples Rd	open
Rocky's Taco House Rocky's Taco House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1302 Cupples Rd	open
Rodriguez Notary Public	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1120 Cupples Rd	open
Rosales Jalisco	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1319 Frio City Rd	open
Santa Maria Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1142 Cupples Rd	open
Savage Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3331 General Hudnell Dr	open
Taqueria Muro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1202 Cupples Rd	open
The Pantry	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	3331 General Hudnell Dr	open
TK Teriyaki Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	3331 General Hudnell Dr	open
Tubby's Tavern	Bar		1402 Cupples Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1402 Cupples Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	19	17	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	18	16	11	5	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	17	15	12	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	17	15	11	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	16	13	9	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	15	11	8	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	11	7	6	1	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	12	6	6	—	—	5	NAICS2002
2005	15	9	5	3	1	4	NAICS2002
2006	15	10	6	3	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	13	9	7	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	9	7	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	16	10	7	3	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	14	10	7	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	14	10	6	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	12	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	12	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	14	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78226. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78243	1.6 mi	1	2014
78237	2.6 mi	57	2023
78225	2.7 mi	15	2023
78211	2.8 mi	40	2023
78236	3.2 mi	1	2016
78242	3.2 mi	21	2023
78207	3.7 mi	55	2023
78204	4.2 mi	27	2023
78227	4.2 mi	90	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.