BMIE Market 78416
Nueces County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 12,480 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,207 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 4,606 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±412 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 15,508 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 5,540 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $43,198 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,456 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 41.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,051 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $94,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,427 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 3.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78416 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 18.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +380.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 30 (range 25–34) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.44) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78416. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.44, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 47.5 | 47 | 40% | +19.0 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 38.5 | 39 | 35% | +13.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 29.9 | 30 | 25% | +7.5 |
Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 12,480 | 74 | 40% | +29.6 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 43,198 | 8 | 40% | +3.3 |
| Households (ACS) | 4,606 | 73 | 20% | +14.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 35% | +12.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 19.2 | 39 | 25% | +9.8 |
| Population (ACS) | 12,480 | 74 | 20% | +14.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 43,198 | 8 | 20% | +1.6 |
Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -7.7 | 20 | 50% | +10.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 30% | +10.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 20 | 46 | 20% | +9.1 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (48)
By cuisine
Mexican 15 · American 13 · Burgers 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · BBQ 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Quick service 14 · Dessert 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benita's Tacos | Quick service | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 2261 Loritte Dr | open |
| Bubba's 33 Bubba's 33 | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 1921 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings | Bar · Casual dining | 2001 South Padre Island Drive | open | |
| BullChicks | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1805 S Padre Island Dr Ste 100 | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3941 Crosstown Expy | open |
| Carnitas & Barbacoa Don Gus | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · BBQ | 3829 Crosstown Expy | open |
| Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 4901 Greenwood Drive | open |
| Cora's Cafe | Café | Coffee · Sandwiches · American | 4418 Prescott St | open |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 5002 Greenwood Dr | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 1620 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill | Quick service | 5002 Greenwood Dr | open | |
| El Canelo Mexican Restaurant El Canelo Autopartes | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 1805 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| El Guapo's Taqueria | Quick service | Mexican | 4418 Prescott St | open |
| El Rinconcito Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4013 Prescott St | open |
| El Vago Burger & BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Burgers · American | 4701 Barrera Dr | open |
| Famous Dave's Bar-b-que Of America | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 1652 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| Fuddruckers Fuddruckers | Quick service | American · Burgers | 1949 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| Golden Corral Buffet & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1921 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| IHOP IHOP | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 2037 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| La Mala Taquitos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 749 Horne Rd | open |
| Las Espuelas | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 1620 S Padre Island Dr #160 | open |
| Las Milpas Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 3908 Crosstown Expy | open |
| Los Toros Tacos And Burgers | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 802 W Point Rd | open | |
| Love Grubz | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1501 W Point Rd | open |
| Luby's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1510 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 1610 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| Nena's Tacos n more | Quick service | Mexican | 1501 W Point Rd | open |
| Old Brownsville & S Padre Island Whataburger | Quick service | 602 S PADRE ISLAND DR | open | |
| Olive Garden Italian Restaurant Olive Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 1652 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| Pancho Sopes | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4418 Prescott St | open | |
| Pollos Asados La Frontera | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings | 3113 S Port Ave | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 5009 Greenwood Dr | open |
| Raspados La Bamba | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3113 S Port Ave | open |
| Rooster's Beer Garden | Bar | 801 Horne Rd | open | |
| Smack Eats | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 1501 W Point Rd | open |
| Speedys snacks | Food truck · Dessert | 2001 Horne Rd | open | |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 1620 S. Padre Island Drive Suite 110 | open |
| Sweet Rose Cakes & Cupcakes | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 4718 Orchid Ln | open |
| Taco Rico Taco Rico | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · BBQ | 4102 Greenwood Dr | open |
| Tacos y Carnitas El Jefe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 802 W Point Rd | open |
| Taqueria Cancun 4 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 4450 Greenwood Dr | open |
| Taqueria Los Tres Potrillos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 1945 Horne Rd | open |
| Tasty WAVEZ Italian Ice | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Italian | 4902 Greenwood Dr Suite C | open |
| Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 2029 S Padre Island Dr | open |
| The Blue Clove | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 1945 Horne Rd | open |
| Trap House Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1501 W Point Rd | open |
| Whataburger Whataburger | Quick service | Burgers · American | 602 S PADRE ISLAND DR | open |
| Johnny Carino's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 1652 S Padre Island Dr | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 8 | 8 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 11 | 11 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 12 | 11 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 8 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 8 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 9 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 23 | 22 | 7 | 13 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 21 | 21 | 5 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 26 | 26 | 7 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 28 | 28 | 8 | 14 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 29 | 28 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 29 | 28 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 28 | 27 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 29 | 27 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 26 | 24 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 24 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 24 | 22 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 25 | 23 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 25 | 23 | 11 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 28 | 26 | 12 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 30 | 28 | 14 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 26 | 25 | 11 | 12 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 30 | 29 | 11 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 29 | 29 | 11 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 24 | 24 | 10 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2022 |