BMIE Market 85012

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,704 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±980 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,757 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±513 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,390 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,804 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,620 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,072 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,746 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±74 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$735,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90,426 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	59 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85012
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	54.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+31.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+51.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+84.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	72 (range 59–85) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.7 per year, r² 0.44) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85012. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.44, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.1	70	40%	+28.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.5	54	35%	+19.1
Market Momentum Score	70.8	71	25%	+17.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,704	69	40%	+27.5
Median household income (ACS)	86,620	70	40%	+28.0
Households (ACS)	4,757	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	31.1	72	35%	+25.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	67.8	7	25%	+1.7
Population (ACS)	8,704	69	20%	+13.7
Median household income (ACS)	86,620	70	20%	+14.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.5	72	50%	+35.8
10-year restaurant growth	31.1	72	30%	+21.5
20-year restaurant growth	51.3	68	20%	+13.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (123)

By cuisine

Coffee 20 · American 18 · Mexican 11 · Dessert 9 · Italian 9 · Sandwiches 9 · Asian 8 · Bakery 7 · Healthy / salads / bowls 7 · Juice / smoothies 7 · Pizza 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Japanese 5 · Breakfast 3 · Burgers 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Sushi 3 · African 2 · Seafood 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Vegetarian 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Filipino 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Korean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 62 · Bar 20 · Quick service 17 · Café 16 · Dessert 15 · Coffee shop 12 · Casual dining 11 · Juice, smoothie, tea 9 · Bakery 7 · Specialty food shop 7 · Fast casual 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Catering 2 · Other 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Across The Pond	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	4236 N Central Ave	open
Alexi'S	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	10 E Thomas Rd	open
Alexi's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian	3550 N Central Ave #120	open
Applebee S 509	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2 E Camelback Rd	open
Arizona Strong Beer Festival	Brewery / taproom		300 E Indian School Rd	open
AZ Deli Company	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	3800 N Central Ave	open
AZ Roast Coffee	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	5757 N Central Ave	open
Bar Muerte	Bar · Coffee shop	Coffee · Seafood	3243 N 3rd St	open
Bb.q Chicken Midtown Phoenix Bb.q Chicken Texas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	305 E Thomas Rd	open
Blaze Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	5120 N Central Ave	open
Blimpie	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	3443 N Central Ave Ste 10	open
BoSa Donuts BoSa Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	3701 N Central Ave	open
Boston Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5101 N Central Ave	open
Breezy Pop Breezy Pop	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	5757 N Central Ave	open
Cafe Creme	Café	Coffee	4000 N Central Ave	open
Central Bean Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Filipino	4727 N Central Ave	open
Cheese 'n Stuff	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	5042 N Central Ave	open
Chiki’s Sweets & Treats	Dessert	Dessert	4727 N Central Ave	open
China Chili	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	302 E Flower St	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	52 E Camelback Road 200	open
Chula Seafood Uptown Chula Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	100 E Camelback Rd #172	open
Churn	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5223 N Central Ave	open
City Market Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	20 E Thomas Rd	open
Clever Koi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	4236 N Central Ave #100	open
Cranberry Hills Eatery & Catering	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	3003 N Central Ave #118	open
Creamistry	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	100 E Camelback Rd	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5050 N Central Ave	open
Dapper & Stout	Café	Coffee	100 E Camelback Rd Ste 150	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	914 E Camelback Rd Suite 10	open
Drug Enforcement Administration	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	3010 N 2nd St	open
El delicioso tacos i tortas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		381 E Weldon Ave	open
Elly's Brunch & Cafe Elly's Brunch & Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	100 E Camelback Rd Ste 166	open
Emerald Square Baked Goods	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3101 N Central Ave Ste 183#160	open
Fame Caffe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	4700 N Central Ave	open
Federal Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5210 N Central Ave #104	open
Fez	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	3815 N Central Ave # B	open
Fired Pie Fired Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Pizza · Italian · Healthy / salads / bowls	3110 N Central Ave	open
Flower Child Flower Child	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	100 E Camelback Rd	open
Frybread House 7th Ave Camelbac	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 E Camelback Rd	open
George and Dragon English Pub	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	4240 N Central Ave	open
Hollyrock	Bar		537 E Camelback Rd	open
Horse & Hyde	Bar		100 E Camelback Rd #150	open
Hulu's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific		open
Huss Brewing Uptown Phoenix Taproom + Kitchen	Brewery / taproom		100 E Camelback Rd Ste 160	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Burgers	3215 N Central Ave	open
Jade Heart Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3200 N Central Ave	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	3110 N Central Ave #100	open
JINYA Ramen Bar JINYA Ramen Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	5120 N Central Ave #1	open
JL Patisserie	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4700 N Central Ave ste. 121	open
Johnny's Uptown Restaurant & Music Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	40 E Camelback Rd	open
Joyride Taco House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5202 N Central Ave	open
JP's Dog House	Quick service		16TH St	open
Karsons Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3110 N Central Ave	open
King Churro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Bakery	6510 N Central Ave	open
Kobalt	Bar		3110 N Central Ave #175	open
Kream Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	5102 N Central Ave	open
La Belle Vie Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	5757 N Central Ave	open
Los Sombreros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	322 E Camelback Rd	open
Lux Coffeebar Lux Central	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4404 N Central Ave # 1	open
Maizie's Cafe & Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4750 N Central Ave	open
McDonald Floral & Gifts Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5223 N Central Ave	open
McDonald's	Quick service		3701 N Central Ave	open
My My What A Pie	Dessert	Dessert	5757 N Central Ave	open
My Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Tea / bubble tea	4750 N Central Ave	open
Nekter Juice Bar Nekter Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	100 E Camelback Rd Suite 196	open
Nobel Roman's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	309 E Osborn Rd	open
Oak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 E Camelback Rd	open
Ocotillo Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3243 N 3rd St	open
Oreo's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3101 N Central Ave	open
Outrageous Tacos & Burritos	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	501 E Camelback Rd	open
Pane Bianco Central	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4404 N Central Ave	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Fast casual	Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	2845 N Central Ave	open
Paris Baguette	Coffee shop	Coffee	5120 N Central Ave Ste #2	open
Phoenix Marketing Associates	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5110 N Central Ave	open
Plaza Cafe & Grill	Café · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee · American	4041 N Central Ave	open
Poolboy Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3112 N Central Ave	open
Port of Subs Port of Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	635 E Indian School Rd	open
Postino Central Postino	Bar · Café	Italian · Coffee	5144 N Central Ave	open
Pure & Simple	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	4700 N Central Ave	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican		open
Rott N' Grapes	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4750 N Central Ave Ste 140	open
Salt & Straw	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	100 E. Camelback Rd	open
Satellite Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5102 N Central Ave	open
Sauce Pizza & Wine Sauce Pizza & Wine	Bar	Pizza · Italian	25 E Camelback Rd	open
Scooptopia & Kuboba	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Tea / bubble tea	4700 N Central Ave Ste 108	open
Scoopwell's Dough Bar	Dessert	Dessert	100 E Camelback Rd Ste 164	open
See's Candies See's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	132 E Camelback Rd	open
Senor Taco Express Central Phoenix	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3215 N Central Ave	open
Serene's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	3200 N Central Ave Ste 110	open
Shake Shack Shake Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	100 E. Camelback Road, Suite 100	open
Shanghai Social	Bar			open
Sophia's A Brunch Counter	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Breakfast · Coffee	336 E Thomas Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	650 E. Osborn Road	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3120 N Central Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3110 N Central Ave (Park Central Mall, - Phoenix)	open
Starcorp, Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20 E Thomas Rd Ste 2200	open
Streets of New York Streets of New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	214 E Camelback Rd	open
SunUp Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		330 E Camelback Rd	open
Sushi Vibe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	100 E Camelback Rd #154	open
Sweet Tomatoes	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	52 E Camelback Rd	open
Taco Guild	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	546 E Osborn Rd	open
Thai Basil Park Central	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	3110 N Central Ave	open
That's Gluten Free?!	Bakery	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls	5757 N Central Ave	open
The Beach House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	501 E Camelback Rd	open
The Bistro AZ	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · American	2909 N Central Ave	open
The Captain's Cabin	Bar		5114 N 7th St	open
The Greedy Hamster - Phoenix	Bar	Spanish / tapas	4750 N Central Ave Ste 140	open
The Green Woodpecker	Casual dining · Bar		3110 N Central Ave	open
The Henry The Henry	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2 E Camelback Rd	open
Twirl Frozen Yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4700 N Central Ave	open
Welcome Hospitality	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4400 N Central Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	301 E. Indian School Rd.	open
West Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	African · American	3110 N Central Ave	open
Windsor	Bar · Casual dining	American	5223 N Central Ave	open
Woody's Macayo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3815 N Central Ave	open
Yama Sushi House - Premium AYCE Sushi KIBO Sushi House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	4750 N Central Ave	open
Yoshi's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese	4050 N Central Ave	open
Zipps Sports Grill Zipps Sports Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	3110 N Central Ave	open
Zookz Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	100 E Camelback Rd	open
Arizona Business & Development Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3101 N Central Ave Ste 1070	closed
Citizen Espresso Bar	Coffee shop	Coffee	4700 N Central Ave	closed
Del Taco	Quick service		305 E Thomas Rd	closed
Lou Malnati's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	100 E Camelback Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	33	32	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	29	28	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	39	38	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	45	45	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	48	44	12	26	5	—	NAICS1997
1999	48	42	14	21	6	2	NAICS1997
2000	43	38	16	19	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	44	40	16	20	4	1	NAICS1997
2002	43	39	17	18	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	47	39	15	18	4	3	NAICS2002
2004	51	43	16	21	4	2	NAICS2002
2005	47	41	14	20	5	2	NAICS2002
2006	46	40	14	19	5	2	NAICS2002
2007	51	44	13	24	5	2	NAICS2002
2008	49	41	14	20	5	3	NAICS2007
2009	49	40	13	20	5	4	NAICS2007
2010	41	35	11	18	5	3	NAICS2007
2011	46	39	15	18	5	3	NAICS2007
2012	45	39	17	17	5	3	NAICS2012
2013	51	45	18	19	6	3	NAICS2012
2014	58	50	21	22	5	4	NAICS2012
2015	52	46	21	19	5	3	NAICS2012
2016	58	49	20	21	7	5	NAICS2012
2017	69	55	23	23	8	6	NAICS2017
2018	65	52	23	22	6	6	NAICS2017
2019	87	74	43	21	9	6	NAICS2017
2020	73	61	29	24	7	5	NAICS2017
2021	75	63	28	25	9	5	NAICS2017
2022	69	56	26	23	7	5	NAICS2022
2023	74	59	29	22	8	7	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85012. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85014	0.8 mi	65	2023
85013	0.8 mi	58	2023
85015	1.8 mi	66	2023
85016	2.3 mi	167	2023
85017	3.0 mi	54	2023
85006	3.2 mi	57	2023
85004	3.9 mi	126	2023
85021	3.9 mi	52	2023
85003	4.0 mi	59	2023
85020	4.1 mi	58	2023
85019	4.2 mi	18	2023
85007	4.4 mi	40	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.