BMIE Market 85298

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	44,114 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,317 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,391 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±667 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,479 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,215 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$156,425 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,665 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,785 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±126 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$652,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,870 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	31 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85298
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+82.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+416.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,450.0% DERIVED: 2007 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	41 (range 40–43) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.4 per year, r² 0.99) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	95 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	95 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	96 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85298. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.99, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 95 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	95.4	95	40%	+38.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94.4	94	35%	+33.0
Market Momentum Score	96.2	96	25%	+24.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 95 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	44,114	95	40%	+38.2
Median household income (ACS)	156,425	97	40%	+38.7
Households (ACS)	14,391	93	20%	+18.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	416.7	100	35%	+34.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.0	84	25%	+21.1
Population (ACS)	44,114	95	20%	+19.1
Median household income (ACS)	156,425	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 96 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	82.4	94	50%	+58.8
10-year restaurant growth	416.7	100	30%	+37.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · Coffee 6 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Mexican 4 · Asian 3 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sandwiches 3 · American 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Breakfast 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 6 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Apple Dumpling Cafè	Café	Coffee	3076 E Chandler Heights Rd Ste 101	open
Black Rock Coffee Bar Black Rock Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4925 S Val Vista Dr	open
Blue 32 Sports Grill Blue 32 Sports Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	6348 S Higley Rd	open
Bolero's Restaurant At Seville Golf And Country Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6683 S Clubhouse Dr	open
Bosa Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	4844 S Val Vista Dr Ste 103	open
Cakes by Dacil	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7440 S Portland Ct	open
Cogburn's Big Wings Cogburn's	Casual dining · Bar		4902 S Val Vista Dr	open
Copper Spur Farm Stand	Bakery	Bakery	18118 E Chandler Heights Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	3140 E Chandler Heights Rd	open
everbowl Everbowl	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1717 E Queen Creek Rd	open
FiiZ Drinks	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1717 E Queen Creek Rd	open
Grotti's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7131 S Val Vista Dr #103	open
Hatch & Rise AZ	Bakery	Bakery	3659 E Donato Dr	open
Hong Kong Kitchen 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3076 E Chandler Heights Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Sandwiches	3076 E Chandler Heights Rd Ste 103	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6466 S Higley Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4844 S Val Vista Dr	open
Local Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza · Italian	6348 S Higley Rd Ste 106	open
Mandarin Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4902 S Val Vista Dr	open
Manuel Diaz Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4902 S Val Vista Dr Ste 105	open
Marbella Vineyards, Gilbert, Arizona	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6324 S Higley Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1705 E Queen Creek Rd	open
Mesquite Fresh Street Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4875 S Val Vista Dr	open
Moreno's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6510 S Higley Rd #103	open
Morning Kick	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	3076 E Chandler Heights Rd #101	open
Nekter Juice Bar Nekter Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	3076 E Chandler Heights Rd	open
Papa Chevo's Taco Shop Papa Chevo's Taco Shop (Marina)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4902 S Val Vista Dr #105	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3076 east chandler heights road	open
Pizza Hut Express Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Mexican	3104 E Chandler Heights Rd	open
Renew Air	Restaurant (service type not stated)		965 E Narrowleaf Ct	open
Sarff's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		Stacey Rd	open
Slate Bistro and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		4415 E Village Pkwy	open
Sozeal Asian Cuisine (mandarin Chef)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	4902 S Val Vista Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4865 S. Higley Rd. Suite 104	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	6466 S Higley Rd Ste 104	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4844 S Val Vista Dr Ste A108	open
Thai Chili 2go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	6510 S Higley Rd Ste 105	open
tifa_gilbert_az Tifa Chocolate & Gelato - Charlotte, NC	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4935 S Val Vista Dr	open
Top Cup Coffee House	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	7115 S Val Vista Dr	open
Village Baker - Gilbert, AZ Village Baker	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5505 S Lindsay Rd	open
Vito's Pizza & Italian Ristorante Vito's Pizza & Italian Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4865 S Higley Rd #101	open
Zoyo Neighborhood Yogurt Walmart	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3150 E Chandler Heights Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2007	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	8	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	9	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	2	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	2	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	14	3	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	5	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	19	5	9	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	22	5	9	8	—	NAICS2017
2021	27	24	6	8	10	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	28	7	11	10	—	NAICS2022
2023	35	31	9	11	11	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85298. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85297	2.8 mi	55	2023
85249	4.2 mi	50	2023
85295	4.5 mi	128	2023
85142	4.9 mi	120	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.