BMIE Market 85307

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,223 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,706 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,818 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±660 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,230 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,613 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,888 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,765 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	28.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,850 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±63 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$395,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,870 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	10.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85307
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85307. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.3	71	40%	+28.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.3	76	35%	+26.7
Market Momentum Score	53.8	54	25%	+13.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,223	76	40%	+30.3
Median household income (ACS)	82,888	66	40%	+26.2
Households (ACS)	4,818	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.6	90	25%	+22.4
Population (ACS)	14,223	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	82,888	66	20%	+13.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

Mexican 6 · Chicken / wings 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Sushi 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Korean 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 10 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aldo’s Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7725 N El Mirage Rd	open
Angeles Mexican Cuisine	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7071 N 138th Ave	open
Anything Wrapped In Bacon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7071 N 138th Ave	open
Big Easy Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13831 W Glendale Ave	open
BoSa Donuts BoSa Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	13820 W Glendale Ave	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1124 Thunderbird St	open
Café Risqué	Café	Coffee	11701 W Glendale Ave	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	7071 N 138th Dr	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	7071 N 138th Dr Bldg 1540	open
Cousins Subs	Quick service		6904 N Dysart Rd	open
Cupbop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	7071 N 138th Ave	open
Filiberto's Mexican Food Filibertos Mexican Food	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13821 W Glendale Ave	open
Galaxy MunchBox Gastropub	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	11701 W Glendale Ave	open
Hacienda Del Sol	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12727 W Glendale Ave	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Burgers	13820 W Glendale Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	9920 W Glendale Ave	open
La Dolce Vita Biscotti Inc	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Italian	10875 W Northview Ave	open
Lucie's Sage and Sand Bar and Grill	Bar · Casual dining		13831 W Glendale Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7019 N Litchfield Rd	open
Option Unlimited Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13821 W Glendale Ave	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	6904 N Dysart Rd	open
Raspi's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7071 N 138th Ave	open
Roc The Mic Karaoke	Bar		6808 N Dysart Rd Ste 156	open
Rock N Roll Sushi Rock N Roll Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9950 W Glendale Ave	open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13751 W Glendale Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	6901 N Litchfield Rd	open
Takamatsu On Luke	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	7019 N Litchfield Rd	open
Wingstreet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	13105 W Glendale Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	3	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	11	8	2	6	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	2	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	8	5	2	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	8	5	2	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	9	6	3	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	9	6	1	5	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	12	9	—	9	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	13	9	—	9	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	1	8	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	2	7	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	13	9	2	6	1	4	NAICS2007
2010	12	10	3	7	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	11	9	3	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	10	7	1	6	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	9	6	1	5	—	3	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	1	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	10	8	1	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	10	8	1	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	8	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85307. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85305	3.1 mi	76	2023
85392	3.7 mi	83	2023
85363	3.8 mi	5	2023
85309	3.8 mi	1	2005
85037	3.9 mi	31	2023
85335	3.9 mi	14	2023
85345	4.6 mi	73	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.