BMIE Market 85335

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	36,088 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,120 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±401 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	31,787 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,324 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,050 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,625 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,806 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±68 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$321,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,349 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85335
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+55.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+250.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+250.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.76) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85335. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.76, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.1	78	40%	+31.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.0	84	35%	+29.4
Market Momentum Score	77.0	77	25%	+19.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	36,088	92	40%	+36.9
Median household income (ACS)	78,050	59	40%	+23.8
Households (ACS)	11,120	88	20%	+17.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	55.6	85	35%	+29.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.9	95	25%	+23.8
Population (ACS)	36,088	92	20%	+18.4
Median household income (ACS)	78,050	59	20%	+11.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.7	65	50%	+32.4
10-year restaurant growth	55.6	85	30%	+25.6
20-year restaurant growth	250	95	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (52)

By cuisine

Mexican 21 · Latin American (other) 7 · Bakery 5 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · American 4 · Pizza 4 · Hot dogs 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Italian 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Dessert 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bar 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
ArizSoda Dirty Soda Shop	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	13802 N Verbena St	open
Baja Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12420 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Birria Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12216 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Black Rock Coffee Bar Black Rock Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	12443 NW Grand Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	13775 N Dysart Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	12280 W Olive Ave	open
Comiendo Con Memo #2	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12313 NW Grand Ave	open
Corral Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12550 W Thunderbird Rd Ste 116	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	12550 W Thunderbird Rd Ste 117	open
Dorkie Doggie Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	12213 W Desert Ln	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		12199 N Dysart Rd	open
El Buen Gusto Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12329 W Grand Ave	open
El Mirage Az..	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican		open
El Mix Raspados	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12550 W Thunderbird Rd #116	open
El Oaxaqueno	Bakery · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Mexican	12005 NW Grand Ave	open
Guapo Tacos	Food truck	Mexican	13050 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Hot Dogs los de Sonora	Food truck	Hot dogs · Mexican	12126 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Humberto's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12550 W Thunderbird Rd Ste 115	open
Humberto's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12125 NW Grand Ave	open
Kray Kray's Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	12610 W Ash St	open
La Bamba Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12102 W Thunderbird Rd	open
La Fondita	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Mexican · Juice / smoothies	12010 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Lapicosita Fresita	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	13915 N Dysart Rd	open
Las Comadres Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11709 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13011 W Greenway Rd	open
Lupita's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12420 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Mario's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13915 N Dysart Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12900 W. THUNDERBIRD RD. (Walmart #4336)	open
Mr. Mustard's Hot Dogs Burgers And More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches · Burgers	13076 N B St	open
Nomadic Ice Cream Rolls	Food truck		10100 N El Mirage Rd	open
Nora Asian Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	13011 W Greenway Rd	open
Paleteria Anais	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12102 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12555 NW Grand Ave	open
Pueblo Bar & Grill - Roberts Resorts	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		11201 N El Mirage Rd	open
Rags Real Chicken & Waffles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	12037 W Scotts Dr	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · American	12239 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Rio Mirage Cafe- El Mirage Location Cafe Rio Mexican Grill	Café	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Coffee	12245 W Santa Fe Ln	open
Roliberto's Mexican Food	Quick service	Mexican	12555 NW Grand Ave	open
Rosas Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12550 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Salon De Eventos - Mariscos Mazatlan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Seafood	13609 N Main St	open
Salvadoreno Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	12550 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Señor coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Mexican	12239 W Thunderbird Rd	open
sr taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	12333 NW Grand Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	12170 N El Mirage Rd	open
Sunrise Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	13011 W Greenway Rd #102	open
Taco's y Marisco's El Sinaloco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12010 W Thunderbird Rd	open
The Grind Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	13802 N Verbena St	open
The Taco Spot - El Mirage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13011 W Greenway Rd Ste 101	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	12900 W Thunderbird Rd	open
Windy City Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	10100 N El Mirage Rd	open
La Fruta Loca	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert		12010 W Thunderbird Rd	closed
Sun City Awning	Café	Coffee	12336 W Butler Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	2	—	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	2	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	1	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	1	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	12	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	16	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	17	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85335. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85363	1.3 mi	5	2023
85351	2.8 mi	25	2023
85379	3.0 mi	34	2023
85307	3.9 mi	8	2023
85378	4.1 mi	6	2023
85309	4.5 mi	1	2005
85345	4.6 mi	73	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.