BMIE Market 85351
Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 27,592 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,426 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 17,227 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±764 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 27,789 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 21,284 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $53,725 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,444 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 72.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,560 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $274,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,156 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 10.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85351 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 10.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +4.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -19.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -7.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -13.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 25 (range 19–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85351. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 61.9 | 62 | 40% | +24.8 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 45.3 | 45 | 35% | +15.9 |
| Market Momentum Score | 38.1 | 38 | 25% | +9.5 |
Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 27,592 | 87 | 40% | +34.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 53,725 | 20 | 40% | +7.9 |
| Households (ACS) | 17,227 | 96 | 20% | +19.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -19.4 | 14 | 35% | +5.0 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 9.1 | 76 | 25% | +19.0 |
| Population (ACS) | 27,592 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 53,725 | 20 | 20% | +4.0 |
Market Momentum Score: 38 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 4.2 | 61 | 50% | +30.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -19.4 | 14 | 30% | +4.3 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -7.4 | 18 | 20% | +3.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (62)
By cuisine
American 15 · Coffee 10 · Mexican 8 · Bakery 4 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Mediterranean 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · European 2 · Pizza 2 · Thai 2 · Vietnamese 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 42 · Quick service 12 · Café 8 · Casual dining 8 · Coffee shop 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 5 · Dessert 4 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum Vapors | Bar | 9420 W Bell Rd | open | |
| AZ Desert Dawgs Hot Dogs | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck · Quick service | Hot dogs | 10109 W Grand Ave | open |
| Baked and Boujee | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 15436 N 99th Ave | open |
| Benjamin's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10746 W Bell Rd | open | |
| Benny's Burgers and BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · BBQ · American | 10001 W Bell Rd | open |
| Blue Sky Lounge | Bar | Mediterranean | 10001 W Bell Rd #134 | open |
| Bobbie's Cafe | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 15472 N 99th Ave #5 | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 10243 Grand Ave | open |
| Chang Lee Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 13600 N 99th Ave | open |
| Coco's Bakery Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 10243 Grand Ave | open |
| Coco's Bakery Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 9801 W Bell Rd | open |
| Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert · Casual dining | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 10799 Grand Ave | open |
| Dominic's Bistro Italiano | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · European | 10001 W Bell Rd | open |
| Don Jose's | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Mexican | 9881 W Bell Rd | open |
| Dos Tacos Y Una Limonada | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 10659 W Grand Ave., 13 | open |
| Filiberto's Mexican Food Filibertos | Quick service | Mexican · Latin American (other) | Grand Avenue Shopping Center, 10777 Grand Ave | open |
| George's Cafe | Casual dining · Café | American · Coffee | 16810 N 99th Ave | open |
| George's Lakeview Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Coffee · American | 10502 W Thunderbird Blvd | open |
| Grand Shawarma | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 10659 Grand Ave | open |
| Hanging Gardens Mediterranean Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Middle Eastern | 10050 W Bell Rd | open |
| Hellhound Coffee Co. | Coffee shop | Coffee | 10817 W Sarabande Cir | open |
| J&T's Copper Penny Tavern | Casual dining · Bar | American | 10765 W Peoria Ave | open |
| Jack in the Box | Quick service | 9906 W Thunderbird Blvd | open | |
| Jade Star | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 10050 W Bell Rd Ste 8 | open |
| Jai Thai | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 9803 W Bell Rd | open |
| Jb's Family Restaurants | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 9889 W Bell Rd | open |
| JiMichael's Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 13039 N 103rd Ave | open |
| JJ's Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | American | 10503 W Thunderbird Blvd | open |
| KFC KFC | Quick service | 10801 W. Grand Avenue | open | |
| King Red Crawfish & Pho | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 9803 W Bell Rd | open |
| KP Cuisine Mediterranean Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 10050 W Bell Rd, 8 | open |
| La Petite Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10503 W Thunderbird Blvd | open | |
| Lends Hawaii Portuguese Malasadas | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert | Dessert · Juice / smoothies | 10741 W Crosby Dr | open |
| Line Thai | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai | 9803 W Bell Rd | open |
| Los Armandos Mexican Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 9510 W Bell Rd | open |
| Master Taco Sun City | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 13614 N 99th Ave | open |
| New China Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 10801 Grand Ave | open |
| New York West Bakery | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | 10101 Grand Ave | open |
| Nino's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 10659 Grand Ave | open |
| Oroweat Baking Co Outlet | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Bakery | 10050 W Bell Rd | open |
| Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 10659 Grand Ave A12 | open |
| Pappaou Greek Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 13039 N 103rd Ave | open | |
| Paulie's Little Bite Of Italy | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 15456 N 99th Ave | open |
| Pho Thanh | Quick service | Vietnamese | 10422 N 105th Ave | open |
| Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's | Quick service | open | ||
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 10717 West Grand Ave | open |
| Romen's Gyros | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10050 W Bell Rd | open | |
| Royal Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · American | 10793 Grand Ave | open |
| Señor Taco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 9510 W Bell Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 10701 Grand Ave | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 10700 W Bell Rd | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 10660 Grand Ave | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 10659 NW Grand Ave Suite A-2 | open |
| Sun Camera | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10001 W Bell Rd Ste 146 | open | |
| Sunset Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · European | 15462 N 99th Ave | open |
| Taco Bell | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 10661 Grand Avenue | open |
| The Boyer cafe | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 10001 W Bell Rd | open |
| The Speakeasy Bar | Bar | 10745 Grand Ave | open | |
| Thrifty Cafe | Café · Coffee shop | Coffee | 10535 N 107th Ave | open |
| Water-Mart | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10050 W Bell Rd Ste 33 | open | |
| Wingstreet | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 10050 W Bell Rd Ste 22 | open |
| Kfc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 10661 Grand Ave | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 30 | 29 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 31 | 30 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 33 | 32 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 36 | 34 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 37 | 33 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 36 | 32 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 34 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 31 | 26 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 34 | 28 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 33 | 27 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 33 | 30 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 39 | 37 | 24 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 40 | 38 | 26 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 35 | 32 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 32 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 34 | 31 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 32 | 30 | 21 | 5 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 32 | 30 | 21 | 5 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 32 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 33 | 31 | 19 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 9 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 29 | 26 | 15 | 9 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 24 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 28 | 24 | 15 | 8 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 28 | 24 | 15 | 8 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 31 | 26 | 16 | 9 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 32 | 27 | 14 | 12 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 32 | 27 | 16 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 37 | 32 | 15 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 29 | 25 | 12 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2022 |