BMIE Market 85379
Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 51,035 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,895 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 15,792 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±606 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 39,732 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 13,935 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $110,616 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,792 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 34.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,095 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $448,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,900 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 10.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85379 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 3.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +21.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +112.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +1,600.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +3,300.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 45 (range 40–49) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.7 per year, r² 0.88) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 91 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 91 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85379. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.88, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 91 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 92.5 | 92 | 40% | +37.0 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 91.3 | 91 | 35% | +32.0 |
| Market Momentum Score | 87.5 | 87 | 25% | +21.9 |
Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 51,035 | 97 | 40% | +38.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 110,616 | 87 | 40% | +34.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 15,792 | 94 | 20% | +18.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 91 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 112.5 | 94 | 35% | +33.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 6.7 | 86 | 25% | +21.4 |
| Population (ACS) | 51,035 | 97 | 20% | +19.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 110,616 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 87 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 21.4 | 78 | 50% | +39.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 112.5 | 94 | 30% | +28.3 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 1,600 | 100 | 20% | +20.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (78)
By cuisine
American 16 · Coffee 12 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 8 · Mexican 8 · Pizza 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Burgers 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Asian 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 23 · Dessert 14 · Bakery 11 · Bar 9 · Café 9 · Coffee shop 9 · Casual dining 8 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Catering 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amigos Authentic Mexican Grill & Bar | Casual dining · Bar | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 13621 N Litchfield Rd #131 | open |
| Angie's Lobster Angie's Lobster | Quick service | Seafood · American | 13670 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| AZ Diner | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 13765 Litchfield Rd | open |
| Baked Chemistry | Bakery | Bakery | 15411 W Waddell Rd Ste 102 | open |
| Baskin-robbins | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 15423 W Waddell Rd Ste 103 | open |
| Big D's Backyard BBQ | Catering | BBQ · American | 13949 N 135th Dr | open |
| BoSa Donuts BoSa Donuts | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Dessert · Coffee | 15261 N Reems Rd #109 | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 14719 Cactus Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 15475 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Cactus & Reems Salad and Go | Quick service | 15437 Cactus Road, Surprise, AZ 85379 | open | |
| Cafe Rio Cafe Rio Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 13968 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Charros Mexican Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 15880 W Cactus Rd | open |
| Chen Wok | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 13856 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle | Quick service | 13610 N Litchfield Rd | open | |
| CiCi's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 15228 W Alexandria Way | open | |
| Cici's Sweets &Treats | Dessert · Bakery | Dessert · Bakery | 15411 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 13681 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Cosmic Sweets Dessert Emporium | Dessert · Bakery | Dessert · Bakery | 14130 N 148th Ln | open |
| Crumbl - Surprise | Dessert | Dessert | 13983 W Waddell Rd Ste 100 | open |
| Dairy Queen Treat Center Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 15261 N Reems Rd #104 | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 13953 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 13431 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Enchanted Cupcakes And More | Bakery | Bakery | 13681 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Fazoli's Fazoli's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 13510 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Federico's Mexican Food Federico's Mexican Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 12100 N Dysart Rd | open |
| Filibertos Filibertos | Quick service | Mexican | 13517 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers | Quick service | Burgers · American | 14029 West Waddell Rd | open |
| Golden Spoon | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 13681 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| H2O N GO Thrifty Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 14763 Cactus Rd | open |
| Jack in the Box | Quick service | 15333 W Waddell Rd | open | |
| Jim-n-I's Paradise Patio Bar | Bar · Casual dining | American | N 152nd Ct | open |
| KnS Food Services DBA Rios Taco Shack | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | Mexican | 14691 N 138th Ln | open |
| Litchfield Dutch Bros. Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 13431 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Litchfield Road Whataburger | Quick service | 13611 North Litchfield Road | open | |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 15423 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 13953 W Waddell Rd, Suite #103 | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 15525 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Native Grill & Wings Native Grill & Wings | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 13929 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Nick & Ben's Pizza Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Pizza | 14010 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 13749 N Litchfield Rd Ste G000 | open |
| PinkaBella Cupcakes | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Dessert | 13681 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 14763 Cactus Rd #120 | open |
| Portillo's Portillo's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American | 16320 W. Waddell Road | open |
| PT Noodles | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Noodles / ramen / pho | 13749 N Litchfield Rd G109 | open |
| Quench Taps and Tapas | Casual dining · Bar | Spanish / tapas | 14010 N Litchfield Rd #212 | open |
| Red Embers Bar and Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 13525 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Reel Pizza Pies | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 13953 W Waddell Rd Ste 103 | open |
| Rocket Fizz | Dessert | 13681 N Litchfield Rd Ste 122 | open | |
| Rosati’s Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 13856 W Waddell Rd Ste 104 | open |
| Royal Boba Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 15423 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Salad and Go Salad and Go | Quick service · Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls | 15437 W Cactus Rd | open |
| Samurai Sam's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese | 13761 West Bell Rd, Suite 211 | open |
| Song Lynn Asian Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Vietnamese · Thai | 13749 N Litchfield Rd Ste. G109 | open |
| Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 13924 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Spencer's Place | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop | Coffee | 15341 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop | Coffee | 14290 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 15367 W Waddell Rd (Bashas - Surprise, #137) | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 13982 W. Waddell | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 13828 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 13954 W Waddell Rd Suite 15 | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 15423 West Waddell Road Suite 105 | open |
| Sugar 'N Spice | Bakery | Bakery | 13681 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Surprise, AZ Portillo's | Quick service | 16320 W. Waddell Road | open | |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 13752 W. Waddell Road | open |
| Tap House Sports Grill | Bar · Casual dining | 13699 N Litchfield Rd | open | |
| The Approach | Bar | 13525 N Litchfield Rd | open | |
| The Barage | Bar | open | ||
| The Boyer Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 13681 N Litchfield Rd | open | |
| The Original Rainbow Cone | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 13510 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| The Taco Spot - Surprise The Taco Spot | Quick service | Mexican | 13580 N Litchfield Rd Ste 130 | open |
| Towering House Frybread | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 13235 W Banff Ln | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 13749 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Underreview Sports Grill LLC | Café · Coffee shop · Casual dining · Bar | Coffee | 13699 N Litchfield Rd | open |
| Vogue Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 15411 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 15389 W. Cactus | open |
| Wicklicks Crusty Bites | Bakery | Bakery | 15107 N 145th Ave | open |
| Wiki-licious Surprise Wiki-licious | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 12251 N 141st Ct | open |
| Wingstop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 13968 W Waddell Rd Ste 102 | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 6 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 19 | 15 | 5 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 18 | 15 | 5 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 20 | 16 | 5 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 26 | 23 | 10 | 12 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 13 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 12 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 32 | 28 | 7 | 16 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 32 | 28 | 8 | 16 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 37 | 32 | 7 | 21 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 37 | 33 | 10 | 18 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 37 | 32 | 9 | 18 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 39 | 33 | 11 | 17 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 39 | 34 | 7 | 21 | 6 | — | NAICS2022 |