BMIE Market 85388
Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 35,369 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 10,871 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±527 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 23,490 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 8,311 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $112,164 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,083 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,155 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $459,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,657 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 12.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85388 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 2.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +112.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +385.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +1,033.3% DERIVED: 2005 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 36 (range 29–44) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.1 per year, r² 0.80) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 91 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 89 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 98 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85388. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.80, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 91 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 89.2 | 89 | 40% | +35.7 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 89.1 | 89 | 35% | +31.2 |
| Market Momentum Score | 98.5 | 98 | 25% | +24.6 |
Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 35,369 | 92 | 40% | +36.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 112,164 | 88 | 40% | +35.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 10,871 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 89 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 385.7 | 100 | 35% | +34.8 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 9.6 | 74 | 25% | +18.4 |
| Population (ACS) | 35,369 | 92 | 20% | +18.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 112,164 | 88 | 20% | +17.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 98 (Medium confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 112.5 | 98 | 50% | +61.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 385.7 | 100 | 30% | +37.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (85)
By cuisine
American 20 · Coffee 14 · Burgers 12 · Mexican 10 · Pizza 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Asian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 42 · Quick service 32 · Coffee shop 13 · Café 10 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Food truck 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Brothers Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 16995 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Arby's Arby's | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 13641 North Prasada Parkway | open |
| Badazz Boba and Shakes | Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea | Dessert · Tea / bubble tea · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 16630 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Barrio Queen Barrio Queen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 13434 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| BBQ Mission | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 11565 189th Dr | open |
| Bell & Loop 303 Salad and Go | Quick service | 16885 W Bell Rd, Surprise, AZ 85374 | open | |
| Ben's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 16630 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Big Buddha Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 16572 W Greenway Rd Ste 115 | open |
| Black Rock Coffee Bar Black Rock Coffee Bar | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | HWY 303 &, 16640 Cactus Rd | open |
| Black Rock Coffee Bar Black Rock Coffee Bar | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 13725 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Blue Sushi Sake Grill Blue Sushi Sake Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 13442 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Boba Craze | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 16630 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings | Bar · Casual dining | American | 13668 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 16790 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Burros and Fries Burros & Fries - Mexican Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 13544 N Prasada Pkwy #101 | open |
| Cafe Rio Fresh Modern Mexican | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 17063 W Greenway Rd Ste 100 | open |
| Café Zupas Café Zupas | Quick service | 13260 N. Prasada Parkway | open | |
| Carl’s Jr. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 13290 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 16525 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Quick service | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 16810 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Cold Beers & Cheeseburgers Cold Beers & Cheeseburgers | Bar · Casual dining | Burgers | 13400 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Cooper’s Hawk Winery & Restaurant Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 16470 W Alexandria Way | open |
| Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 16986 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · Sandwiches | 16430 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Federico's Mexican Food Federico's Mexican Food | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 16995 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Firebirds Wood Fired Grill Firebirds Wood Fired Grill | Casual dining · Bar | Steakhouse · American | 13388 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| First Watch First Watch | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Breakfast · American | 16430 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Five Guys Five Guys | Quick service | Burgers · American | 13544 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Fonzy's Tacos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 17896 W Westpark Blvd | open |
| Goodcents Goodcents | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 16572 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Handel's Homemade Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 15240 N Cotton Ln | open |
| In-N-Out Burger In-N-Out Burger | Quick service | Burgers · American | 16440 Cactus Road | open |
| Indulge Froyo | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 16995 W Greenway Rd Ste 105 | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 13641 N Prasada Parkway Suite 130 | open |
| Jim's Burgers and Eggs Jim's Restaurants | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · Breakfast · American | 17019 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Kfc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 15154 N Cotton Ln | open |
| Kona Ice of Northwest Phoenix Kona Ice | Dessert · Food truck | Dessert | All-Star Animal Hospital, 16772 W Bell Rd | open |
| Kona Ice of S. Glendale | Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies | 15510 N 169th Ave | open |
| Lalina Patisserie | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 17071 W Carmen Dr | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 15180 N Cotton Ln | open |
| Lou Malnati's Pizzeria Lou Malnati's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 13382 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Mary Mar Food Truck | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 16359 W Peoria Ave | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 17180 W Peoria Ave | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 16547 West Bell Road | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 14111 N Prasada Gateway Ave | open |
| Mesquite Fresh Street Mex Mesquite Fresh Street Mex | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 16860 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Miss Monica Sourdough | Bakery | Bakery | 17531 W Ivy Ln | open |
| MOD Pizza MOD Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Pizza | 13668 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| N Sarival Ave & W Waddell Rd Whataburger | Quick service | 13730 N SARIVAL AVE | open | |
| Nekter Juice Bar Nekter Juice Bar | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls | 13641 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| OHSO Brewery and Distillery | Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 13448 N Prasada Pkwy | open | |
| Ono Hawaiian BBQ Ono Hawaiian BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific | 13612 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Panda Express | Quick service | Chinese · Asian | 16760 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 13536 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 16860 W WADDELL | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 17200 West Peoria Avenue Maricopa | open |
| Port of Subs Port of Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches · American | 16640 Cactus Rd #112 | open |
| Prasada Noodles & Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 13606 N Prasada Pkwy | open | |
| Robeks Fresh Juices & Smoothies - Surprise, AZ Robeks | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 16640 W Cactus Rd | open |
| Sdi Surprise, Az, Cotton & Greenway, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 17181 W Greenway Rd | open | |
| Shake Shack Shake Shack | Quick service | Burgers · American | 16470 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Smoothie King Smoothie King | Quick service | 16427 Cactus Rd, Ste 127 | open | |
| Sneakybird sneakybird | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Chicken / wings · American | 16430 W Waddell Rd #108 | open |
| Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 17181 West Greenway | open |
| Spencer's Place | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | Inside Team 4 Kids Building, 15116 N Cotton Ln | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 16371 Cactus Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 17124 W Peoria Ave | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 17160 W Peoria Ave | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop | Coffee | 16610 W Greenway Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 17883 W. Bell Road | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 16450 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 14101 N Prasada Gateway | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 15215 N Cotton Ln | open |
| Subway | Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 17019 W Greenway Rd Ste 113 | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 10810 N Cotton Ln | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 13660 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| The Boyer Drive-Thru | Bakery | Bakery | 15240 N Cotton Ln #100 | open |
| The Habit Burger Grill The Habit Burger Grill | Quick service | Burgers · American | 16553 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Torchy's Tacos Torchy's Tacos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American | 16430 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Trapper's Sushi Co. Trapper's Sushi Co. - Puyallup | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 17200 W Peoria Ave | open |
| Twisted by Wetzel's | Quick service · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Dessert | 13668 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Waddell Rd Dutch Bros. Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 16986 W Waddell Rd | open |
| Wetzel's Pretzels Wetzel's Pretzels | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Bakery | 13668 N Prasada Pkwy | open |
| Whataburger Whataburger | Quick service | Burgers · American | 13730 N SARIVAL AVE | open |
| Wienerschnitzel Wienerschnitzel | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs | 17063 W Greenway Rd Suite 100 | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 3 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 16 | 14 | — | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 17 | 15 | — | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 18 | 17 | — | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 25 | 24 | — | 17 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 35 | 34 | 3 | 27 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |