BMIE Market 85375

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,680 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,185 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	16,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±690 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	27,703 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	20,021 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$63,928 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,233 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	74.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,678 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±347 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$377,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,980 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85375
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+87.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85375. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.6	69	40%	+27.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.0	71	35%	+24.8
Market Momentum Score	69.0	69	25%	+17.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,680	87	40%	+34.9
Median household income (ACS)	63,928	37	40%	+14.8
Households (ACS)	16,408	95	20%	+19.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.4	90	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	27,680	87	20%	+17.4
Median household income (ACS)	63,928	37	20%	+7.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	36.4	87	50%	+43.3
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Pizza 3 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 5 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	13607 W Camino Del Sol	open
Bella Vista	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	22135 N Mission Dr	open
Betty's Rooste Sun City West	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	14418 W Meeker Blvd	open
Carrie's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13576 W Camino Del Sol Ste 7	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	13623 W Camino Del Sol	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	13576 W Camino del Sol	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	19423 N R H Johnson Blvd Ste 103	open
Florencia Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13591 W Camino del Sol	open
Garden Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	13549 W Camino del Sol	open
Hole 'n One	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	13573 W Camino Del Sol	open
La Petite Cafe	Café	Coffee	14418 W. Meeker blvd suite 100 Bld. B	open
Lizard Acres Pub	Bar		19803 N R H Johnson Blvd	open
Memo's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	19803 N R H Johnson Blvd	open
Nan Jing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	13606 W Camino Del Sol #101	open
Nine bar	Café	Coffee	13920 W Camino del Sol	open
Nino's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	13519 W Camino Del Sol	open
Royal Polish Foods Buried Treasure Wellness	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	13576 W Camino del Sol	open
Senor Taco Señor Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	19423 N R H Johnson Blvd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	13503 Camino Del Sol	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	13503 W Camino Del Sol (Safeway - Sun, City West #2054)	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	19423 N R H Johnson Blvd Ste 107	open
The Crooked Putter Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Pizza	14260 W Meeker Blvd	open
The Dog House SCW	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches · American	13505 W Camino Del Sol	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	11	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	13	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	16	14	10	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	18	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	11	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	17	15	8	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	15	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	15	5	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85375. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85378	2.8 mi	6	2023
85374	2.8 mi	107	2023
85373	3.3 mi	4	2023
85379	4.9 mi	34	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.