BMIE Market 85353
Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 49,120 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,436 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 13,045 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±553 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 31,011 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 9,673 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $94,154 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,950 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 29.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,799 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $388,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,340 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 21.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 37 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85353 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +42.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +54.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +640.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +825.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 42 (range 37–48) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.5 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 87 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 89 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85353. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 87 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 87.6 | 88 | 40% | +35.0 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 85.0 | 85 | 35% | +29.8 |
| Market Momentum Score | 89.3 | 89 | 25% | +22.3 |
Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 49,120 | 97 | 40% | +38.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 94,154 | 77 | 40% | +30.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 13,045 | 91 | 20% | +18.2 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 54.2 | 85 | 35% | +29.8 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 7.5 | 82 | 25% | +20.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 49,120 | 97 | 20% | +19.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 94,154 | 77 | 20% | +15.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 89 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 42.3 | 88 | 50% | +44.0 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 54.2 | 85 | 30% | +25.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 640 | 99 | 20% | +19.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (112)
By cuisine
Mexican 23 · Coffee 16 · American 13 · Latin American (other) 9 · Pizza 8 · Bakery 7 · Burgers 6 · Dessert 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Seafood 6 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Asian 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · BBQ 3 · Japanese 3 · Breakfast 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Italian 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 63 · Quick service 23 · Coffee shop 14 · Café 12 · Dessert 10 · Bakery 9 · Food truck 7 · Casual dining 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Other 5 · Bar 4 · Delivery-focused 2 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Fried Rice | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 9310 W Van Buren St | open |
| Adam's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 9550 W Van Buren St # Suite21 | open |
| Ahuevo Café | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · Mexican | 9205 W Van Buren St | open |
| American Italian Pasta | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 495 S 99th Ave | open |
| Asadero Campestre | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 10936 W Miami Ave | open |
| Authenticos Mesquite Grille | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · BBQ | 8475 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Bad Ass Coffee of Hawaii Bad Ass Coffee of Hawaii | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 8363 W Van Buren St | open |
| Barry's Bakery Barry's Home Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 8601 W Washington St | open |
| Beautiful Food Truck | Food truck | Healthy / salads / bowls | 8367 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Bitesize Treats | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 10341 W Atlantis Way | open |
| Black Rock Coffee Bar Black Rock Coffee Bar | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 225 N 107th Ave | open |
| Blanca’s Catering | Food truck | 10326 W Magnolia St | open | |
| Blooming Donuts | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 9820 W Lower Buckeye Rd Ste 107 | open |
| Blossom Asian Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 8350 W Lower Buckeye Rd Ste 106 | open |
| Bomboba | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies | 9897 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Bosa Donuts 99th Ave | Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 391 S 99th Ave | open |
| Boschma Gerben Dairy | Dessert · Quick service | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 8921 W Broadway Rd | open |
| Cafecito Coffee House | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 9353 W Van Buren St | open |
| Calitacos Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 9820 W Lower Buckeye Rd #103 | open |
| Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr. | Quick service · Other | Sandwiches · Burgers · American | 8313 W Roosevelt St | open |
| Carniceria Y Marketa Rancho El Grande | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 810 N 91st Ave | open |
| Churroholic | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Noodles / ramen / pho | 9897 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Coca-Cola Freestyle Coca-Cola Freestyle | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 9840 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Cold Stone Creamery | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 9870 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Coplin Mfg., Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7505 W Washington St | open | |
| Denny's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9960 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open | |
| Dickey's Barbecue Pit Dickey's Barbecue Pit National | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 9860 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 8363 W Van Buren St Bldg D Suite 2 | open |
| Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 9965 W Van Buren St | open |
| Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies | 8301 W Lynwood St. | open |
| El Auténtico Baja Fish Y More | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9261 W McDowell Rd | open | |
| El Camaron Gigante | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Seafood | 8343 W Van Buren St | open |
| El Papas | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 9152 W Van Buren St | open |
| El Wero Marisquero | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · Mexican · Latin American (other) | 9207 W Van Buren St | open |
| ElClamatón Botanero | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 8365 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Famous Gorditas "La Villa" | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 10600 W Buckeye Rd | open |
| Farmer Boys Farmer Boys | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 1220 S 83rd Ave | open |
| Filiberto's Mexican Food Filibertos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 9616 W Van Buren St #110 | open |
| Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 9897 W McDowell Road | open |
| Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 405 North 99th Ave | open |
| Frutilandia | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 9897 W Mcdowell Rd | open |
| Fuego Bar & Grill Corporation | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9118 W Van Buren St | open | |
| Holsum Bakery Inc. | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Coffee | 9600 W Buckeye Rd | open |
| Honey Baked Ham The Honey Baked Ham Company | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 9897 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Hula Hawaiian BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2755 S 99th Ave | open | |
| Irma's Mexican Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 9323 W Van Buren St | open |
| Jack in the Box | Quick service | 8302 W Lynwood St | open | |
| Jack in the Box | Quick service | 9840 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open | |
| Jaramillo's Trucking | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2910 S 88th Ave | open | |
| KFC | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 10005 West Van Buren Street | open |
| La Carreta De Lily La Carreta | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican · Dessert | 9616 W Van Buren St #121 | open |
| La Michoacana Plus - Tolleson La Michoacana PLUS | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 9860 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Little Caesars | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 355 N 99th Ave Ste 3 | open |
| Longbranch Saloon | Bar · Casual dining | 10600 W Buckeye Rd | open | |
| Lower Buckeye & 99th Ave Salad and Go | Quick service | 9875 W Lower Buckeye Rd, Tolleson, AZ 85353 | open | |
| Manhattan Pizza Manhattan Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 9870 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Mariscos El Chinola | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 9261 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Mariscos El Fuerte | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 9101 W Monroe St | open |
| Mariscos La MV | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · Mexican | 9261 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Maskadores Taco Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9205 W Van Buren St | open | |
| Mayas hotdogs y más | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Hot dogs | 11431 W Chambers St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2911 South 99th Avenue | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | 1215 N 91st Ave | open | |
| Metro Subs | Quick service | 9550 W Van Buren St Ste 20 | open | |
| Musselman's Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | open | ||
| Native Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 9256 W Van Buren St | open |
| New Asian Star | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 2755 S 99th Ave | open |
| Pepe's Lounge | Bar | 9152 W Van Buren St | open | |
| PepsiCo | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 410 S 104th Ave | open | |
| Pepsico | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 777 S 79th Ave | open | |
| Pete's Fish & Chips Pete's Fish & Chips | Restaurant (service type not stated) | British / Irish pub food · Seafood | 9309 W Van Buren St | open |
| Phx Grind Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 9118 W Van Buren St | open |
| Pina Express | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican · Dessert | 9416 W Van Buren St | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2755 S 99th Ave | open |
| Pizza Hut Express Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Pizza · Coffee | 9830 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Pizzeria Del Sol | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3010 S 99th Ave | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 9915 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Pupusas comida tipica salvadoreña | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Juice / smoothies | 91st Ave. & Lower Buckeye Rd\nTolleson, AZ 85353\n | open |
| Quaker Oats Co | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 410 S 104th Ave | open | |
| Rally's Rally's | Quick service | 205 N 99th Ave | open | |
| Restaurant Oaxaqueño Tierra Del Sol | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Mexican · American | 9310 W Van Buren St | open |
| RIL-DIL BBQ, LLC | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 3412 S 97th Dr | open |
| Roma 23 | Bar · Casual dining | Mexican | 9118 W Van Buren St | open |
| SahuaroRoll | Delivery-focused | Japanese · Sushi | S 93rd Ave, Tolleson, AZ 85353, United States | open |
| Salad and Go Salad and Go | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls | 9875 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Sanser Antojitos | Food truck | Mexican | 9261 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 2955 S 99th Ave | open |
| Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 9552 West Van Buren Avenue | open |
| Southwest Baking Co. | Bakery | Bakery | 9141, 9600 W Buckeye Rd bldg b | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 525 N 99th Ave | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 1207 N 91st Ave | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2735 S. 99th Avenue Suite 105 | open |
| Sunset Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 10739 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Sushinomexicanroll | Food truck | open | ||
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 9850 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
| Taco Móvil al carbón | Food truck | Mexican | 407 S 107th Ave | open |
| Tacos La Lomita | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 8449 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Tamales Guadalajara | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 9356 W Van Buren St | open |
| Taqueria Y Cenaduria Culiacan | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 9115 W Van Buren St | open |
| Teriyaki Madness Teriyaki Madness | Quick service | Japanese · Asian | 3010 S 99th Ave | open |
| The Buffalo Spot The Buffalo Spot | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 9897 W McDowell Rd #550 | open |
| The Meltdown | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | Sandwiches · Burgers | Hwy 99 & Buckeye Rd | open |
| Tolleson, S. 83rd Ave. Farmer Boys | Quick service | 1220 S. 83rd Ave. | open | |
| Tortas Ahogadas George | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 9550 W Van Buren St #17 | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 3010 S 99th Ave | open |
| Two Stirs And A Lick Dessert Studio | Dessert · Bakery | Dessert · Bakery | S 102nd Ln | open |
| Van Buren Dutch Bros. Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 9965 W. Van Buren St. | open |
| W Lower Buckeye Rd & S 99th Ave Scooter's Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 2955 S 99th Ave | open |
| Waffle House Waffle House | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 8325 W McDowell Rd | open |
| Wag Services Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8121 W Harrison St | open | |
| Whataburger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 2710 South 99th Avenue | open |
| Wingstop Wingstop | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 9860 W Lower Buckeye Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 9 | 7 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 7 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 18 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 27 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 25 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 26 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 30 | 27 | 8 | 16 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 30 | 26 | 8 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 31 | 27 | 8 | 16 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 31 | 28 | 11 | 14 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 34 | 28 | 9 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 44 | 37 | 12 | 21 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 43 | 37 | 9 | 23 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |