BMIE Market 91978

San Diego County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,014 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,084 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,236 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,896 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,159 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$113,170 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,519 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,327 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±246 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$637,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±80,393 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 91978
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 9–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	45 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 91978. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.1	77	40%	+30.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.7	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	45.3	45	25%	+11.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,014	71	40%	+28.3
Median household income (ACS)	113,170	88	40%	+35.2
Households (ACS)	3,236	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	35%	+6.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.0	65	25%	+16.1
Population (ACS)	10,014	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	113,170	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	30%	+5.9
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

Mexican 7 · Dessert 5 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Pizza 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Dessert 7 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alhamdani Sweets and Dessert	Dessert · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert · Bakery · Middle Eastern	3515 Sweetwater Springs Blvd Ste 7	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	3509 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
Bravo Cafe & Yogurt	Café · Dessert	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	12887 Campo Rd	open
Cafe Amor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Dessert · Coffee shop	Coffee · Dessert	3509 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
Captain Sam's Fish and Chicken Captain Sam's Fish and Chicken - All	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	10761 Jamacha Blvd	open
Casanova Fish Tacos	Catering	Mexican	2731 Via Orange Way Unit 111	open
Dandee Company	Dessert		3511 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
Dulcería San Diego Mexican candy store we accept EBT and we have piñata’s	Dessert	Dessert	10761 Jamacha Blvd	open
Extraordinary Fruits	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Mexican · Healthy / salads / bowls	3509 Sweetwater Springs Blvd Ste 2	open
Fruteria Y Neveria La Dulce Vida	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Mexican · Healthy / salads / bowls	10761 Jamacha Blvd	open
Hanna Interpreting Services Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10783 Jamacha Blvd Ste 8	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		10255 Campo Rd	open
Little Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	2533 Folex Way Ste A	open
Miguel Vargas Sanchez	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2615 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
Mike Curphy Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2731 Via Orange Way Ste 104	open
Mrs Eddies Treats	Dessert	Dessert		open
Narah's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	10761 Jamacha Blvd	open
Palomino's Mexican and Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other)	2615 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
Pho Minh and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Vietnamese · Asian	2615 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
Pizza Heaven	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	10761 Jamacha Blvd	open
Rolbertos Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2615 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
San Diego Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2733 Via Orange Way Ste 101	open
Shooters Cocktails	Bar		10761 Jamacha Blvd Ste c	open
Sky Hookah Lounge	Bar		3515 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
Steele 94 Restaurant Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	12891 Campo Rd	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2615 Sweetwater Springs Blvd, Suite L	open
Valentins Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12891 Campo Rd	open
Wetzels Pretzel's Sweetwater Wetzel's Pretzels	Quick service		2615 Sweetwater Springs Blvd Suite L, Spring Valley, California 91978, USA	open
Wienerschnitzel Wienerschnitzel	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	3523 Sweetwater Springs Blvd	open
Zad Mediterranean Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	3515 Sweetwater Springs Blvd #1	open
Wetzel's Pretzels	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	2615-L Sweetwater Springs Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	2	—	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	5	3	2	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	6	3	2	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	6	3	2	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	6	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	7	3	1	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	2	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	2	4	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	3	4	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	1	7	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	1	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	1	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	11	10	2	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	2	9	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	16	13	2	9	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	1	7	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	2	6	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	—	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	12	—	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	—	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	11	—	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	14	—	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	14	—	8	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	—	7	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 91978. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
91914	2.6 mi	26	2023
91977	4.1 mi	59	2023
91902	4.7 mi	37	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.