BMIE Market 92010

San Diego County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,489 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,069 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,926 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±489 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,382 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,711 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$129,926 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,988 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,103,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±48,561 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 92010
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+250.0% DERIVED: 2004 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 8–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	31 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 92010. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.0	85	40%	+34.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.5	85	35%	+29.9
Market Momentum Score	31.4	31	25%	+7.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,489	80	40%	+32.0
Median household income (ACS)	129,926	93	40%	+37.2
Households (ACS)	6,926	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	35%	+27.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.8	96	25%	+23.9
Population (ACS)	18,489	80	20%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	129,926	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 31 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-50	4	50%	+2.5
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	30%	+28.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 3 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vegetarian 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bakery 4 · Quick service 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Dessert 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alohana Acai Bowls Alohana Acai Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	5671 Palmer Way H	open
Arcana Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		5621 Palmer Way Ste c	open
Choice Juicery Choice Superfood Bar and Juicery	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	5631 Palmer Way	open
Culver Beer Company	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2719 Loker Ave W Ste D	open
Everbowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3132 Tiger Run Ct	open
Felix's BBQ With Soul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	5671 Palmer Way Ste D	open
Fish District FISH DISTRICT	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	2675 Gateway Rd #102	open
Forum Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	3132 Tiger Run Ct	open
GelatoLove Production Lab & Tasting Room	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5661 Palmer Way	open
Hacienda De Vega	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3145 Tiger Run Ct	open
JBrew's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2508 Via Sorbete	open
Joes On the Nose	Coffee shop	Coffee	5909 Sea Otter Pl	open
Kombucha Culture	Bar		5671 Palmer Way Ste J	open
Life Planning Advisors Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2701 Loker Ave W	open
Naan N Curry	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2708 Loker Ave W, Ste 104	open
Omega Aquisition Group & Sunbelt Business Network	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2888 Loker Ave E	open
On a Roll Sandwich Shoppe	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2794 Loker Ave W Ste 110	open
Pho House and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho	2708 Loker Ave W b107	open
Plantiful Kitchen	Bakery	Bakery	5661 Palmer Way Ste G	open
Prager Brothers Artisan Breads	Bakery	Bakery	5611 Palmer Way	open
Primos Mexican Food Primos Mexican Food & Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2708 Loker Ave W	open
Renegade Training Academy	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5751 Palmer Way Ste H	open
Rl Liquid Assets, Inc	Winery / distillery / taproom		5909 Sea Lion Pl Ste G	open
Spirito's Italian Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American	2508 El Camino Real	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2708 Loker Avenue West 100	open
Starbucks Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3398 Marron Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2708 Loker Ave W Ste 101 Bldg B	open
Surf Brothers Teriyaki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	2708 Loker Ave W #103	open
Surf Up Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Asian	5661 Palmer Way B	open
Taste & Sea Cakery	Bakery	Bakery	5661 Palmer Way Ste B	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2004	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	4	1	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	7	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	8	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	9	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	8	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	7	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	1	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	7	—	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	2	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	—	3	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	14	3	5	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	3	3	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	11	3	—	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	12	3	4	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	9	—	4	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 92010. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
92081	2.4 mi	65	2023
92008	2.4 mi	147	2023
92056	2.6 mi	82	2023
92083	3.0 mi	65	2023
92011	4.1 mi	38	2023
92054	4.9 mi	197	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.