BMIE Market 93921

Monterey County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,322 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±610 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,336 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±394 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,281 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,139 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$96,923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±66,358 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	69.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,753 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±486 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$2,000,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	45 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 93921
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	140.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-2.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-4.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	39 (range 33–46) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 93921. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.5	61	40%	+24.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33.6	34	35%	+11.8
Market Momentum Score	47.7	48	25%	+11.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,322	48	40%	+19.0
Median household income (ACS)	96,923	79	40%	+31.6
Households (ACS)	1,336	54	20%	+10.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-2.2	22	35%	+7.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	193.8	2	25%	+0.5
Population (ACS)	2,322	48	20%	+9.5
Median household income (ACS)	96,923	79	20%	+15.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.4	76	50%	+38.1
10-year restaurant growth	-2.2	22	30%	+6.7
20-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (94)

By cuisine

American 17 · Italian 13 · European 9 · Coffee 8 · French 8 · Seafood 7 · Asian 6 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Breakfast 4 · Mediterranean 4 · Pizza 4 · Steakhouse 4 · Japanese 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Greek 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Spanish / tapas 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 56 · Bar 29 · Winery / distillery / taproom 16 · Casual dining 9 · Café 8 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
400° Gourmet Burgers & Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	Mission	open
7D Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	Seventh & Dolores	open
A.W. Shucks Cocktail & Oyster Bar	Bar	Seafood	Ocean Ave 3SW of San Carlos St	open
Akaoni	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	6th Ave	open
Albatross Ridge Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Dolores St, Between Ocean &, 6th Ave	open
All about the Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	3 Ocean Ave	open
Alvarado Street Brewery & Bistro	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		Mission Street &, 7th Ave Suite 112	open
Andre’s Bouchée	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	Mission St. Between Ocean & 7th	open
Anton & Michel Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	Mission Street & 7th Ave	open
Barmel	Bar	Spanish / tapas	San Carlos between Ocean Ave & 7th Ave In, Carmel Way Courtyard	open
Big Sur at Nepenthe	Quick service · Bar		6th Ave	open
Bistro Beaujolais	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	Ocean Ave.	open
Blair Estate Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		The Carmel Plaza Mission Street btwn Ocean and 7th	open
Brophy's Tavern	Bar	British / Irish pub food	San Carlos St &, 4th Ave	open
Bruno's Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	Junipero St	open
Bud's at La Playa	Casual dining · Bar		Camino Real &, 8th Ave	open
Café Carmel	Café · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	Ocean Ave	open
Cafe Luna	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	Ocean Avenue & Mission St, Carmel Plaza, Courtyard level	open
Cantinetta Luca	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	Dolores St. between Ocean and 7th	open
Cantinetta Luca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	Dolores St.	open
Caraccioli Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7393 Dolores St	open
Carmel Bakery	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	Ocean Ave	open
Carmel Belle	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	San Carlos St, Ocean Ave	open
Carmel Fish House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian		open
Carmel Mission Ranch Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Carmel Road	Bar		Lincoln St.	open
Carmel Wine Walk by-the-Sea	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		25867–25869 Mission St, Carmel, California	open
Carmel-by-the-Glass	Winery / distillery / taproom		La Playa Hotel, Corner of Camino Real & 8th St	open
Casanova	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · Italian · European	5th Ave	open
Catch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	Ocean Ave Between Lincoln Street and, Monte Verde St	open
Catch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Seafood · Sandwiches	Ocean Ave Btwn Monte Verde & Lincoln	open
Chalone Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		Ocean Ave &, Mission St Ground Floor	open
Char Steakhouse Carmel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	3 Ocean Ave	open
Chez Noir	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	5th Ave between Dolores and San Carlos	open
Cultura Comida y Bebida	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	Dolores Street, between 5th ave. & 6th ave	open
Da Giovanni Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	Lincoln St. between 5th & 6th	open
Dametra Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Coffee	CORNER OF OCEAN &, Lincoln St	open
Dawn's Dream Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		San Carlos St	open
De Tierra Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Mission 3SE, 5th Ave	open
Dutch Door Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1 Mission St	open
El Bistro by the Sea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Mexican	Mission and, 5th Ave	open
Enzo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Greek · European	6315 San Carlos St	open
Flaherty's Seafood Grill & Oyster Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	between Dolores &, 6th Avenue, San Carlos St	open
Flying Fish Grill Flying Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Asian	7th Ave	open
Foray	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	NEC San Carlos Street & 5th Ave	open
Forge in the Forest	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Junipero Street & 5th Ave.	open
Galante Vineyards Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Dolores St	open
Grasings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse	NW Corner of Mission and, 6th Ave	open
Hog's Breath Inn	Bar · Casual dining	American	547 San Carlos St.	open
Holman Ranch Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar	American	Hampton Court	open
Il Fornaio Carmel Il Fornaio	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	Ocean Avenue at Monte Verde St	open
Il Tegamino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American		open
Katy's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	Mission St	open
L'Escargot	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	Mission St and 4th	open
La Balena	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	Junipero St	open
La Bicyclette	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	Dolores St &, 2 7th Ave	open
La Dolce Vita Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5th ave Between San Carlos and Delores	open
Le Petit Pali at Ocean Ave Le Petit Pali at 8th Ave	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · Breakfast	Junipero Street &, Ocean Ave	open
Le Souffle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	SE corner of 5th Ave and, Dolores St	open
Little Napoli	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian · Pizza	Dolores St	open
Lula's Chocolates Lula 2ndhand Luxury	Dessert	Dessert	Mission St	open
Manzoni Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Paseo Courtyard On San Carlos	open
Mission Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood	Mission St. 2 SW of Ocean Ave	open
Mulligan Public House	Bar · Casual dining		5 Dolores SE of Ocean	open
Mundaka	Bar	Spanish / tapas	San Carlos	open
Nicolas Cocina de Herencia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	ocean avenue & Mission St	open
NORA'S CARMEL	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7th Avenue San Carlos St	open
Pangaea On Ocean Ave	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	Ocean Avenue Between Lincoln Street And, Dolores St	open
Patisserie Boissiere Restaurant	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · Bakery	between Ocean & 7th, Mission St	open
Pèpe's Vino Napoli	Bar			open
Pizza Heaven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mediterranean · Italian	Btwn San Carlos and Mission, 8th Ave	open
Portabella	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mediterranean · European	3 Ocean Ave	open
Rise and Roam Bakery and Pizzeria	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Pizza	Mission Street &, 7th Ave	open
Sade's Cocktails	Bar		Lincoln St	open
Salumeria Luca	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Italian · Bakery	Dolores St	open
Shale Canyon Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		416 San Carlos St	open
Silvestri Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7th between San Carlos and, Dolores St	open
Stationæry	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	San Carlos Street, 3 NE of 6th Avenue	open
Sushi Heaven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian		open
Talbott Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		E Side of Lincoln St., between 5th & 6th Ave	open
Terry's Restaurant + Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	Lincoln St at 7th Ave	open
The Carmel Coffee House and Roasting Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	Dolores St	open
The Little Swiss Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	6th Ave & Dolores St	open
The Xocolatl Garden	Dessert	Dessert	Ocean Ave #4	open
Tommy's Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	Mission between Ocean & 7th, Mission St	open
Toro Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian		open
Tree House Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Thai · Greek	San Carlos St	open
Tuck Box	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining	Tea / bubble tea · American	Dolores Street btwn Ocean & 7th Ave	open
Tudor Wines Carmel Tasting	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		7th Ave and Mission Street	open
Village Gem Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	Mission Street At 5th Ave Just North of, 5th Ave	open
VIN By the Sea Wine Bar + Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		Between 5th & 6th Su Vecino Court, Dolores St	open
Windy Oaks Carmel Tasting Room Windy Oaks Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		LINCOLN BET OCEAN &, 6th Ave	open
Wrath Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		Mission St	open
Wrath Wines Tasting Room	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		Carmel Plz Suite 108	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	49	47	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	49	48	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	51	50	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	56	55	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	53	52	41	8	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	57	56	43	7	6	1	NAICS1997
2000	53	51	39	8	4	2	NAICS1997
2001	52	50	39	7	4	2	NAICS1997
2002	60	59	46	7	5	1	NAICS1997
2003	55	54	42	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	53	53	43	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	48	48	41	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	51	50	42	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	46	44	37	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	44	42	37	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	49	46	42	2	2	3	NAICS2007
2010	49	46	41	2	3	3	NAICS2007
2011	47	45	40	2	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	49	48	42	3	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	47	46	40	3	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	46	43	39	2	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	45	43	39	2	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	42	40	35	3	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	47	45	40	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	40	38	33	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	40	37	32	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	40	37	33	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	45	42	38	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	47	44	40	—	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	46	45	39	—	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 93921. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
93953	2.6 mi	1	2016
93944	3.3 mi	1	2016
93943	4.1 mi	—
93950	4.5 mi	48	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.