BMIE Market 94028

San Mateo County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,531 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±600 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,637 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,534 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,744 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$2,000,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94028
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	2 (range 0–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	18 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94028. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.8	79	40%	+31.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.8	56	35%	+19.5
Market Momentum Score	18.0	18	25%	+4.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,531	65	40%	+25.8
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	40%	+39.9
Households (ACS)	2,637	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.2	75	25%	+18.8
Population (ACS)	6,531	65	20%	+12.9
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	20%	+20.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 18 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+3.5
20-year restaurant growth	20	46	20%	+9.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 2 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Coffee 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alpine Beer Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Quick service	Burgers	3915 Alpine Rd	open
Amigos Grill Cocina Mexicana y Cantina	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3130 Alpine Rd	open
Emerson's Lemonade Stand	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		2 Creek Park Dr	open
Jalisco's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	3 Portola Rd	open
Kingston Family Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		520 La Mesa Dr	open
Koma Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	3130 Alpine Rd	open
Konditorei	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	3130 Alpine Rd	open
Liv Juice	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	3130 Alpine Rd	open
Neely Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		555 Portola Rd	open
Old Port Lobster Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3130 Alpine Rd Ste 300	open
Parkside Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	884 Portola Rd	open
Portola Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Italian · French	3130 Alpine Rd #350	open
Portola Cafe Deli Pizza Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3 Portola Rd	open
Portola Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3130 Alpine Rd	open
Portola Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		850 Los Trancos Rd	open
Taverna	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	3130 Alpine rd Ste 300	open
Thomas Fogarty Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3270 Alpine Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	9	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	4	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	12	7	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94028. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94304	2.9 mi	22	2023
94305	3.8 mi	13	2023
94022	4.0 mi	60	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.