BMIE Market 94502

Alameda County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,430 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,014 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,780 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±381 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,600 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,264 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$180,938 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,098 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,204,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,710 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94502
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+140.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.62) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94502. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.62, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.0	84	40%	+33.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.8	76	35%	+26.5
Market Momentum Score	66.8	67	25%	+16.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,430	75	40%	+30.0
Median household income (ACS)	180,938	98	40%	+39.3
Households (ACS)	4,780	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	76	25%	+19.1
Population (ACS)	13,430	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	180,938	98	20%	+19.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	20	46	20%	+9.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 2 · Japanese 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Greek 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Café 4 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angel Fish Japanese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	883 Island Dr # C-2	open
Bay View Bistro	Bar		1700 Harbor Bay Pkwy	open
Cafe Ya'sou	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	1265 Harbor Bay Pkwy	open
China Villa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	891 Island Dr	open
Coffee & Tea Traders	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	883 Island Dr	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	875 Island Dr	open
Donsuemor	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2080 N Loop Rd	open
Jim's on the Course	Bar · Casual dining	American	1 Clubhouse Memorial Rd	open
La Penca Azul La Penca Azul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	891 Island Dr	open
La Pinata Of Harbor Bay Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		891 Island Dr Ste B	open
La Vals Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	891 Island Dr Ste E	open
Maitland Market Cafe & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	109 Maitland Dr	open
Oscar's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1411 Harbor Bay Pkwy	open
Peets Coffee Roasting Plant	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2001 Harbor Bay Pkwy	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	980 Island Dr	open
Tj Food Tradinginc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		883 Island Dr # C2	open
VF Outdoor Cafe	Café	Coffee	2701 Harbor Bay Pkwy	open
Why Cook? Cafe & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1750 N Loop Rd Ste 125	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	867 Island Dr	open
Good Eats	Other	Chinese	867 Island Dr	closed
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	871 Island Dr Ste C	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	18	15	7	4	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	17	14	6	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	17	14	4	6	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	10	4	2	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	12	5	2	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	4	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	18	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	16	7	5	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	18	8	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	17	6	6	5	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	3	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	2	6	5	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	13	4	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	11	4	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94502. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94621	1.8 mi	36	2023
94601	2.8 mi	87	2023
94501	3.2 mi	203	2023
94603	3.5 mi	16	2023
94606	3.6 mi	53	2023
94577	4.1 mi	143	2023
94613	4.2 mi	—
94602	4.9 mi	46	2023
94612	4.9 mi	142	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.