BMIE Market 94603

Alameda County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	35,742 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,496 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,527 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±408 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	31,403 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,950 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$76,723 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,366 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,842 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±142 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$614,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,857 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94603
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+220.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 15–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.64) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94603. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.64, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.2	77	40%	+30.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83.4	83	35%	+29.2
Market Momentum Score	84.5	85	25%	+21.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	35,742	92	40%	+36.8
Median household income (ACS)	76,723	58	40%	+23.1
Households (ACS)	10,527	87	20%	+17.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	35%	+30.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.5	93	25%	+23.4
Population (ACS)	35,742	92	20%	+18.4
Median household income (ACS)	76,723	58	20%	+11.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	23.1	79	50%	+39.7
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	30%	+25.8
20-year restaurant growth	220	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

Latin American (other) 11 · Mexican 9 · American 6 · Bakery 4 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Indian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · BBQ 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 8 · Food truck 6 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bar 1 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Antojitos Salvadoreños	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American		open
AyQMango	Food truck	Latin American (other)	9306 International Blvd	open
Baby Meow	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10550 International Blvd	open
Big Brother’s	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	10800 Bancroft Ave	open
Brookfield Food Center	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	675 98th Ave	open
Carnitas El Guero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	9333 Railroad Ave	open
Doggy loco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	International Boulevard & 104th Ave	open
El Asadero Poblano	Food truck		10440 International Blvd	open
El buen probar 502	Food truck	Latin American (other)	828 98th Ave	open
El Grullo Taco Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	10199 9849 Bigge St	open
Esquites Estilo D.F	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	10128 International Blvd	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9825 East 14th Street	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	9755 Edes Ave	open
La Parrilla Loca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9829 San Leandro St	open
Lopez Deli & Bakery	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	9639 International Blvd	open
Lupita’s Bakery & Pizzeria	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Pizza · Dessert	655 98th Ave	open
Mariscos El Malecon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other)	9959 International Blvd	open
Mariscos El Tata	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mexican · Latin American (other)	10555 International Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9725 E 14th St	open
NIEVES ZAVALA	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	98th Ave & Bancroft Ave	open
Ojo de Agua #2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	104th Avenue & International Blvd	open
Panaderia El Pueblo	Bakery	Bakery	10228 International Blvd	open
Panaderia Sevilla	Bakery	Bakery · Latin American (other)	11000 San Leandro St	open
Pupusas Cojute	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	10100 International Blvd	open
Reina's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	9102 International Blvd	open
Royal Kitchen Indian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	175 98th Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	185 98th Ave (98th & Bigge - Oakland)	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	1401 Tucker St	open
sugarbabies 1 events	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10970 International Blvd	open
Taco’s los 19 hermanos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1357 91st Ave	open
Talco's	Bar		9348 International Blvd	open
Taqueria El Cruzero	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	9959 International Blvd	open
Taqueria Los Primos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9800 International Blvd	open
Taqueria Tierra Bella	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9133 International Blvd	open
TaqueriaPajacuaran	Food truck		9625 B St	open
The Right Spice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Indian	1626 99th Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	189 98th Avenue	open
World Champion Smokehouse and Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	679 98th Ave	open
Xeviches Sinaloa bistro	Food truck		9829 San Leandro St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	175 98th Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	3	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	6	3	—	3	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	6	3	—	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	8	5	1	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	7	4	1	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	9	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	8	5	2	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	2	3	3	2	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	2	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	3	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	11	2	6	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	13	5	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	2	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	2	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	3	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	16	14	4	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	16	5	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	17	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	14	—	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	16	3	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94603. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94577	1.6 mi	143	2023
94621	2.1 mi	36	2023
94605	2.1 mi	23	2023
94613	2.9 mi	—
94601	3.4 mi	87	2023
94502	3.5 mi	12	2023
94578	3.5 mi	57	2023
94579	3.8 mi	39	2023
94619	3.8 mi	29	2023
94546	4.0 mi	98	2023
94580	4.8 mi	35	2023
94602	4.8 mi	46	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.