BMIE Market 94507

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,586 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,352 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,098 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±378 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,889 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,528 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$2,000,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94507
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-4.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 12–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.7 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94507. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.3	85	40%	+34.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.9	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	15.3	15	25%	+3.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,586	76	40%	+30.5
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	40%	+39.9
Households (ACS)	5,098	75	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.7	58	25%	+14.4
Population (ACS)	14,586	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	20%	+20.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	-9.1	17	20%	+3.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

Coffee 9 · American 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · French 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Café 8 · Coffee shop 6 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Fast casual 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alamo Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	1 Alamo Sq	open
Alamo Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	120 Alamo Plz	open
Bagel Street Cafe Bagel Street Cafe - Blackhawk	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	124 Alamo Plz	open
Brioche de Paris - Pâtisserie	Bakery · Café	Bakery · French · Coffee	215 Alamo Plaza	open
Cherubini Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	37 Alamo Sq	open
Coffee Shop Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	3160 Danville Blvd	open
Dainty Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	115 Alamo Plaza B	open
EJ Phair Pub and Alehouse	Bar · Brewery / taproom		225 Alamo Plaza	open
Elwood Investments, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		34 Alamo Sq Ste 200	open
Extreme Pizza Extreme Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3227 Danville Blvd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	190 Alamo Plaza	open
Forli Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3160 Danville Blvd Ste B	open
Ha-La Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	115 Alamo Plz	open
High Tech Burrito High Tech Burrito - Alamo	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	120-A Alamo Plaza	open
Hmp Real Estate Partners Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3160 Danville Blvd Ste A	open
Latitude Wines	Bar		3000 Danville Blvd	open
Lever Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	37 Alamo Square Dr	open
Maggieray's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3206 Danville Blvd	open
Maguey Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3168 Danville Blvd	open
Mansi Food Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3000 Danville Blvd Ste F	open
Paint Nite	Bar		3160 Danville Blvd	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	215 Alamo Plz Ste A	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3000 Danville Blvd Ste D	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	215 Alamo Plaza	open
RJ's Asian Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	3162 Danville Blvd	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	150 Alamo Plaza	open
Scarlett Wines and McGah Family Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1989, 3200 Danville Blvd # 220	open
See's Candies Seasonal Pop Up Shop	Dessert		200 Alamo Plz	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3160 Danville Blvd Ste A2	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3160-D Danville Blvd.	open
The Brass Bear Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	190 Alamo Plaza Suite E	open
The Peasant's Courtyard The Peasant & The Pear	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	3195 Danville Blvd	open
Xenia Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Italian · American	115 Alamo Plz	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Healthy / salads / bowls · Hawaiian / Pacific	200 Alamo Plaza	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	18	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	23	20	9	6	5	—	NAICS1997
2000	23	20	9	7	4	1	NAICS1997
2001	24	21	10	6	5	1	NAICS1997
2002	25	23	9	8	6	—	NAICS1997
2003	24	22	9	8	5	—	NAICS2002
2004	24	22	11	7	4	—	NAICS2002
2005	29	27	13	8	6	—	NAICS2002
2006	30	28	16	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	24	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	23	23	11	8	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	23	23	11	8	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	26	25	11	9	5	1	NAICS2007
2011	20	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	23	23	12	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	24	24	12	8	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	24	13	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	29	29	14	8	7	—	NAICS2012
2016	28	28	11	8	9	—	NAICS2012
2017	27	27	11	7	9	—	NAICS2017
2018	24	24	12	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	23	12	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	21	11	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	21	10	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	20	9	7	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94507. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94528	2.8 mi	1	2010
94596	2.9 mi	145	2023
94526	3.0 mi	90	2023
94595	3.6 mi	16	2023
94598	4.4 mi	43	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.