BMIE Market 94595

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,988 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,080 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,368 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±496 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,425 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,261 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$100,552 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,723 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	69.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,557 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±446 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$860,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±43,023 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94595
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+166.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+77.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+77.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 13–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.63) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94595. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.63, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.8	81	40%	+32.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.1	84	35%	+29.4
Market Momentum Score	92.1	92	25%	+23.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,988	79	40%	+31.5
Median household income (ACS)	100,552	81	40%	+32.5
Households (ACS)	9,368	84	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	166.7	96	35%	+33.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.4	74	25%	+18.6
Population (ACS)	16,988	79	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	100,552	81	20%	+16.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	166.7	96	30%	+28.8
20-year restaurant growth	77.8	77	20%	+15.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

Italian 4 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bar 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Chicken And The Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1322 Boulevard Way	open
Creekside Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1010 Stanley Dollar Dr	open
Crumbl - Walnut Creek	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	1970-C Tice Valley Blvd	open
El Jardin Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1980 Tice Valley Blvd Ste A	open
Ellie's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2400 Olympic Blvd	open
Il Pavone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	2291 Olympic Blvd	open
La Roca Food Truck	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Mexican · Juice / smoothies	1997 Tice Valley Blvd	open
Morucci's	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	1218 Boulevard Way	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1970-D Tice Valley Blvd	open
Pizza Oliva	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2400 Olympic Blvd Ste 2	open
Rossmoor Diner	Casual dining	American	1908 Tice Valley Blvd Ste A	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1980 Tice Valley Blvd	open
Takuo Kanno & Associates	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	2748 Ptarmigan Dr	open
The Golden Pear The Peasant & The Pear	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	1010 Stanley Dollar Dr	open
The Hangout - Walnut Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Breakfast · Coffee	1908 Tice Valley Blvd A	open
Yogurt Spot	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	1980 Tice Valley Blvd	open
Burgerim	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1980 Tice Valley Blvd Ste A	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	14	3	7	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	4	7	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94595. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94596	2.1 mi	145	2023
94575	3.1 mi	1	1997
94597	3.2 mi	29	2023
94549	3.4 mi	58	2023
94556	3.4 mi	26	2023
94507	3.6 mi	20	2023
94598	4.3 mi	43	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.