BMIE Market 94556

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,998 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±130 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,614 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,229 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,817 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$215,720 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,045 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,906 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±611 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,659,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±87,316 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94556
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+36.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-3.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+13.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 19–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94556. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.0	86	40%	+34.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.0	69	35%	+24.2
Market Momentum Score	65.6	66	25%	+16.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,998	78	40%	+31.1
Median household income (ACS)	215,720	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	5,614	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	35%	+21.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.3	48	25%	+12.1
Population (ACS)	15,998	78	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	215,720	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	36.8	87	50%	+43.3
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	30%	+18.5
20-year restaurant growth	-3.7	19	20%	+3.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

Asian 7 · Italian 7 · Coffee 6 · American 5 · Pizza 4 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Café 6 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bianca's Deli & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	1480 Moraga Rd # A	open
Canyon Club Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1558 Canyon Rd	open
Captain Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1969 Joseph Dr	open
Chef Chao Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	343 Rheem Blvd	open
China Moon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	380 Park St	open
Cinque Capre Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		500 Rheem Blvd	open
Golden Palace Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	581 Moraga Rd	open
Graze	Casual dining		376 Park St	open
iTea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1460 Moraga Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1440 Moraga Way	open
La Finestra Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1419 Moraga Way	open
Lamorinda Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	382 Park St	open
Loard's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1480 Moraga Rd	open
Michael's Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1375 Moraga Way	open
Moraga - Rheem Blvd Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	361 Rheem Blvd.	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	504 Center St	open
Mucho Wraps	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1375 Moraga Way Ste B	open
Nation's Giant Hamburgers Nation's Giant Hamburgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Breakfast · American	400 Park St	open
New Delhi Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	484 Center St	open
NOET Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1957 Joseph Dr	open
Noodle Theory	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · Asian · American	376 Park St	open
Penninis	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian	1375 Moraga Way	open
Ranch House Cafe Moraga	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	1012 School St	open
Ristorante Amoroma	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	360 Park St	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	361 Rheem Blvd	open
Royal Siam	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	512 Center St	open
Si Si Caffe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Italian	910 Country Club Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	470 Moraga Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1355 Moraga Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	396 Park St	open
Sushi Fighter	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	356 Park St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	410 Moraga Rd	open
Tangelo Froyo	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	384 Park St	open
Terzetto Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1419 Moraga Way	open
The Waffle Roost	Food truck			open
Town Bakery and Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	337 Rheem Blvd	open
From Europe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1965 Ascot Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	23	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	22	22	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	29	29	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	28	28	12	15	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	27	26	13	13	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	26	25	10	14	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	23	22	8	14	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	24	22	7	12	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	27	27	11	12	4	—	NAICS2002
2004	23	23	9	11	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	24	23	10	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	27	26	10	13	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	22	20	6	11	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	23	21	6	12	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	25	23	8	11	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	23	21	11	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	24	22	10	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	26	24	11	9	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	25	23	10	9	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	23	21	11	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	22	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	31	27	12	11	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	29	26	12	11	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94556. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94575	0.7 mi	1	1997
94516	3.3 mi	2	2016
94595	3.4 mi	16	2023
94619	4.0 mi	29	2023
94549	4.8 mi	58	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.