BMIE Market 95003

Santa Cruz County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,951 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,418 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,905 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±516 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,974 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,719 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$148,412 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,912 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,731 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±261 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,198,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,982 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	45 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95003
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+32.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	47 (range 44–50) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95003. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.6	90	40%	+35.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.0	54	35%	+18.9
Market Momentum Score	27.6	28	25%	+6.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,951	85	40%	+34.1
Median household income (ACS)	148,412	96	40%	+38.4
Households (ACS)	9,905	85	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-6.3	20	35%	+7.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.0	43	25%	+10.6
Population (ACS)	24,951	85	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	148,412	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.3	22	50%	+10.8
10-year restaurant growth	-6.3	20	30%	+6.1
20-year restaurant growth	32.4	53	20%	+10.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (110)

By cuisine

Coffee 20 · American 11 · Asian 9 · Bakery 7 · Mexican 7 · Pizza 7 · Dessert 6 · Italian 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Japanese 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Sushi 5 · Chinese 4 · BBQ 3 · Breakfast 3 · French 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Mediterranean 3 · Seafood 3 · Burgers 2 · European 2 · Thai 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Korean 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 67 · Bar 19 · Café 18 · Winery / distillery / taproom 13 · Coffee shop 11 · Casual dining 9 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 7 · Food truck 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Fast casual 2 · Other 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Akira Aptos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	105 Post Office Dr Ste D	open
Alfaro Family Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		711 Pleasant Valley Ln	open
Ambrosia India Bistro- APTOS Ambrosia India Bistro, Scotts Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	207 Sea Ridge Rd	open
Aptos Learning Center, Inc. Dba Kumon Of Aptos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8035 Soquel Dr Ste 43	open
Aptos Little League Snack Shack	Food truck		1001 Huntington Dr	open
Aptos St. BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	8059 Aptos St	open
Aptos Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		105C Post Office Dr	open
Armitage	Bar		105 Post Office Dr	open
Au midi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	7960 Soquel Dr	open
Bangkok West	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	2505 Cabrillo College Dr	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	100 Rancho Del Mar	open
Beach Shack Santa Cruz	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		202 Beach Dr	open
Betty Burgers Betty Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	415 Trout Gulch Rd	open
Bittersweet Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Mediterranean	787 Rio Del Mar Blvd	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	150 Rancho Del Mar	open
Burger.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7941 Soquel Dr	open
Cafe 337	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	337 Danube Dr	open
Cafe Rio Venus Spirits	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse	131 Esplanade	open
Café Sparrow	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	8042 Soquel Dr	open
California Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9105 Soquel Dr	open
Cantine Winepub	Bar · Casual dining		8050 Soquel Dr	open
Casa Rossy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	257 Center Ave	open
Castelli’s Caffe & Deli	Café	Coffee	236 Santa Cruz Ave Unit A	open
Cat & Cloud Coffee Cat & Cloud Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10 Parade St	open
Cavalletta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	9067 Soquel Dr	open
Cement Ship Ventures	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 Venetian Rd	open
Charmant Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		800 Larsen Rd	open
Churchill & Beers	Bar · Casual dining		10110 Soquel Dr	open
Clean Juice Clean Juice	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Bar	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	100 Rancho Del Mar	open
Coastal Kettle Corn	Food truck		1785 Day Valley Rd	open
Companion Bakeshop Aptos	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7486 Soquel Dr	open
Dos Pescados Dos Toros Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	21 Seascape Village	open
Emilie and the Frenchies	Café · Bakery	French · Coffee · Bakery	7564 Soquel Dr	open
Erik's DeliCafe Erik's DeliCafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	102 Rancho del Mar	open
Fawn Pizza & Vinyl Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		783 Rio Del Mar Blvd #45	open
Four Streams Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	7960 Soquel Drive	open
Four streams noodles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	257 Center Ave	open
Full Of Beans	Café	Coffee	10 Seascape Vlg	open
Golden Buddha	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	9071 Soquel Dr	open
Green Papaya Authentic Thai Aptos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	8042 Soquel Dr	open
Heather's Patisserie	Bakery	Bakery	7486 Soquel Dr	open
Hong Kong Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	14 Seascape Village	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	150 Rancho Del Mar Shopping Ctr	open
La Vida Bella Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1624 Chardonnay Ridge Rd	open
Lester Estate Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		2000 Pleasant Valley Rd	open
Loft Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2701 Cabrillo College Dr 9000 Building	open
Mangiamo Pizza & Wine Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	783 Rio Del Mar Boulevard Suite 45 - Upstairs	open
Mangiamos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		783 Rio del Mar Blvd Frnt	open
Manuel's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	261 Center Ave	open
Manuel's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	822 Cresta Vista Way	open
Marianne's Ice Cream Marianne's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	218 State Park Dr	open
Marianne's Ice Cream and Market	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	783 Rio del Mar Blvd	open
Mentone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	174 Aptos Village Way	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	121 Rancho Del Mar Building B	open
Nicholson Vineyards Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2800 Pleasant Valley Rd	open
Norma Jean's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	8043 Soquel Dr	open
Other Brother Beer Aptos	Brewery / taproom · Bar		10 Parade St Ste B	open
Pacific Coffee Roasting Co	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	7554 Soquel Dr	open
Pacific Oaks Vineyard Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom		431 Coyote Ridge Rd	open
Panda Inn Panda Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	783 Rio Del Mar Blvd Ste 5	open
Parish Publick House	Casual dining · Bar		8017 Soquel Dr	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	50 Rancho Del Mar	open
Persephone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European	7945 Soquel Dr	open
Pino Alto Restaurant - Cabrillo College	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American	6500 Soquel Dr	open
Pixie Deli and Good Eats	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	111 Venetian Rd	open
Pizza My Heart	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	253 Center Ave	open
Poki Bowl Poki Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	98 Rancho Del Mar	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	105 Post Office Dr Ste D	open
Real Smoked BBQ	Bar · Quick service	BBQ	Aptos St.	open
Red Apple Café	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	783 Rio Del Mar Blvd	open
Rio Del Mar Mexican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	9067 Soquel Dr	open
Ristorante Barolo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	8041 Soquel Dr	open
Rosco's Showtime Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	98 Rancho del Mar	open
Rosscienda Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1172 Redwood Heights Rd	open
Salamandre Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		108 Don Carlos Dr	open
Sanderlings Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1 Seascape Resort Dr	open
Sante Arcangeli Family Wines Aptos Tasting Lounge	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		154 Aptos Vlg Wy c1	open
Schomer Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		783 Rio del Mar Blvd	open
Scrumptious Fish & Chips	Food truck	Seafood · British / Irish pub food		open
Ser Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		10 Parade St Suite B	open
Severino's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	7500 Old Dominion Ct	open
Sevy's Bar + Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	7500 Old Dominion Ct	open
Sid's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Pizza	10110 Soquel Dr	open
Sno White Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	223 State Park Dr	open
SofiasTaqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Sushi · Japanese	112 Rancho del Mar	open
Soul Salad Soul Salad	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	7957 Soquel Dr	open
South Point Seascape - Taproom & Coffee House	Café	Coffee	10 Seascape Vlg	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	105 B Post Office Drive	open
Starbucks Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	16 Rancho Del Mar	open
Storrs Winery and Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1560 Pleasant Valley Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7887 Soquel Dr Ste G Suite G	open
Sushi Garden Sushi Garden - Watsonville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	38 Rancho Del Mar	open
Sushi on the Run	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	7959 Soquel Dr.	open
Sweet Darling Sales Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		24 Seascape Village	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7887 Soquel Dr	open
Taqueria Los Gordos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7488 Soquel Dr	open
The Beach Bean	Café	Coffee	113 Esplanade	open
The Farm B.c., Inc.	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	6790 Soquel Dr	open
The Hideout	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	9051 Soquel Dr	open
The Hole In The Wall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	257 Center Ave	open
The Mediterranean	Bar		255 Center Ave	open
The Original Ferrell's Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	7765 Soquel Dr	open
The Palm Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3000 Valencia Ave	open
The Penny Ice Creamery \| Aptos Village The Penny Ice Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	141 Aptos Vlg Wy	open
Venus Pie Trap	Coffee shop	Coffee	113 Esplanade	open
Vicc Associates	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7960 Soquel Dr Ste B	open
Village Host Pizza and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	4 Seascape Village	open
Whale City Aptos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Breakfast	7941 Soquel Dr	open
Zameen Mediterranean Cuisine Zameen Mediterranean Food Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mediterranean · American	7528 Soquel Dr	open
Juicy Sweet	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7518 Soquel Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	42	36	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	38	33	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	35	31	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	44	40	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	46	40	17	19	4	4	NAICS1997
1999	51	44	19	20	5	4	NAICS1997
2000	49	44	20	18	6	3	NAICS1997
2001	49	43	20	17	6	4	NAICS1997
2002	42	37	16	13	8	5	NAICS1997
2003	37	34	17	12	5	3	NAICS2002
2004	43	39	19	13	7	4	NAICS2002
2005	48	45	25	13	7	3	NAICS2002
2006	43	40	19	14	7	3	NAICS2002
2007	54	51	24	19	8	3	NAICS2002
2008	51	48	23	15	10	3	NAICS2007
2009	55	51	26	15	10	3	NAICS2007
2010	52	48	21	16	11	3	NAICS2007
2011	48	45	21	15	9	2	NAICS2007
2012	49	46	20	17	9	2	NAICS2012
2013	50	48	20	19	9	1	NAICS2012
2014	49	47	20	17	10	1	NAICS2012
2015	50	47	23	14	10	2	NAICS2012
2016	46	44	22	12	10	1	NAICS2012
2017	49	47	25	12	10	—	NAICS2017
2018	50	48	26	11	11	—	NAICS2017
2019	50	47	26	11	10	—	NAICS2017
2020	50	47	26	10	11	—	NAICS2017
2021	51	47	25	11	11	—	NAICS2017
2022	52	49	27	12	10	—	NAICS2022
2023	49	45	23	13	9	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95003. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95073	3.8 mi	24	2023
95010	4.7 mi	63	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.