BMIE Market 95010

Santa Cruz County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,707 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±248 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,242 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,137 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,127 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,236 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,728 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,503 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±190 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$828,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±215,705 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	63 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95010
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	75.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-6.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+1.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-10.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	66 (range 61–70) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	34 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95010. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.5	76	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.3	39	35%	+13.7
Market Momentum Score	34.2	34	25%	+8.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,707	69	40%	+27.5
Median household income (ACS)	105,236	84	40%	+33.7
Households (ACS)	4,242	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-6.0	20	35%	+7.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	72.4	6	25%	+1.5
Population (ACS)	8,707	69	20%	+13.7
Median household income (ACS)	105,236	84	20%	+16.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-6.0	20	30%	+6.1
20-year restaurant growth	1.6	36	20%	+7.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (133)

By cuisine

Coffee 24 · American 12 · Mexican 10 · Pizza 10 · Asian 9 · Bakery 9 · Dessert 9 · Sandwiches 9 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 8 · Japanese 7 · Healthy / salads / bowls 6 · Tea / bubble tea 6 · Breakfast 5 · Italian 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Chicken / wings 4 · Chinese 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Sushi 4 · Burgers 3 · Hot dogs 2 · Noodles / ramen / pho 2 · Seafood 2 · Thai 2 · Vegetarian 2 · Vietnamese 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Cuban 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 73 · Café 22 · Quick service 17 · Dessert 16 · Bar 14 · Coffee shop 12 · Casual dining 10 · Juice, smoothie, tea 10 · Bakery 9 · Specialty food shop 7 · Fast casual 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amazon Juices	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Coffee	1066 41st Ave	open
Armida Winery Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		103 Stockton Ave	open
Asian Express Asian Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Chinese	1955 41st Ave	open
Avenue Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	427 Capitola Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1601 41st Ave	open
Bay Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		209 Esplanade	open
Beach Break By Mariannes	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	104 Stockton Ave	open
Beach House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		207 Esplanade	open
Bella Fruit & Drink	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Juice / smoothies	1855 41st Ave	open
Blue Lava Café	Café	Coffee · Breakfast	2121 41st Ave	open
Bluewater Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Steakhouse · British / Irish pub food	110 Monterey Ave	open
Boba Bay® - Premium Boba Tea & Matcha Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	110 Capitola Ave Ste 3	open
Bouchees	Bakery	Bakery	110 Stockton Ave	open
BrewTopia	Bar		115 San Jose Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2001 41st Ave	open
Busy Bee's Cafe & Catering	Café · Catering	Coffee · Breakfast	1200 41st Ave	open
Buzen Foods	Quick service		509 Bay Ave	open
Calypso's Cove	Café	Coffee	311 Capitola Ave	open
Camellia Tea Room	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	911 Capitola Ave	open
Capitola Candy Company	Dessert	Dessert	205 Capitola Ave	open
Capitola Diner	Casual dining	American	1900 41st Ave	open
Capitola Jjj Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		231 Esplanade Unit 102	open
Capitola Tap House	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Brewery / taproom	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	401 Capitola Ave	open
Capitola Wine Bar and Merchants	Bar		115 San Jose Ave	open
Carousel Taffy and Treats	Dessert	Dessert	115 San Jose Ave	open
Caruso's Tuscan Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	115 San Jose Ave	open
Casa Birria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	509 Bay Ave	open
Casa Moreno	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1855 41st Ave	open
Castagnola Deli & Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	201 Monterey Ave	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1855 41st Avenue	open
Chinese Gourmet Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1855 41st Ave Ste R6	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican	1955 41st Ave Ste A5	open
Cirrata Chocolates Neuhaus	Dessert	Dessert	312 Capitola Ave	open
Coco's Chicken And Waffles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Chicken / wings	1855 41st Ave	open
Cocoa Vino	Bar · Dessert		312 Capitola Ave	open
Coffee Conspiracy	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1855 41st Ave	open
Cork and Fork	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		312 Capitola Ave	open
D & J Deli Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1475 41st Ave Ste A2	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1855 41st Ave Ste R9	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	816 Bay Ave	open
Dharma's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	4250 Capitola Rd	open
Diversified Income Planning Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1840 41st Ave # 102-131	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	3555 Clares St Ste A	open
Donut Station Donut Station	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	715 Capitola Ave	open
Drink La Vie	Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 Kennedy Dr	open
East End Gastropub	Casual dining · Bar		1501 41st Ave Ste I	open
East West Pizza Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1855 41st Ave	open
El Toro Bravo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	123 Monterey Ave	open
Erik's DeliCafe Erik's DeliCafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	1475 41st Ave	open
Erik's Delicafe Erik's DeliCafe of Roseville	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	4375 Capitola Rd	open
Fog Bank	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		211 Esplanade	open
Fresh Choice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	3555 Clares St Ste Y	open
Gayle's Bakery & Rosticceria	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	504 Bay Ave	open
Geisha Japanese Restaurant and Tea House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	200 Monterey Ave 2nd Floor	open
Genji Allegro Coffee Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Mexican · Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Juice / smoothies	1710 41st Ave	open
iCrave	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea · Breakfast	1601 41st Ave	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1549 41st Ave	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1855 41st Avenue	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	3555 Clares St Ste. S	open
Jjs Empire Inc Dba Dairy Queen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		816 Bay Ave	open
Just Cake	Bakery	Bakery	712 Capitola Ave	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2120 41st Avenue	open
La Marea Cafe & Pizzeria	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Pizza	311 Capitola Ave	open
Left Coast Sausage Worx	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Hot dogs · Sandwiches	107 San Jose Ave	open
Left Coast Sausage Worx	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	107 San Jose Ave	open
Littlekoe's Beach Bites	Quick service		115 San Jose Ave Ste H	open
Main Street Bagels Main Street Bagels	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	1475 41st Ave	open
Margaritaville Margaritaville	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Cuban	231 Esplanade	open
Mayflower Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Seafood · Asian	3555 Clares St RR	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1760 41st Ave	open
Melinda's Gluten Free Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls · Dessert	1420 41st Ave	open
Michael's Pizza and Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	819 Bay Ave Ste C	open
Mijo's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	200 Monterey Ave #2	open
Miyako Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	1820 41st Ave G	open
Mr Toots Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	231 Esplanade #100	open
Mr. Kebab and falafel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	201 Esplanade	open
My Ideal Home, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		831 Bay Ave	open
Naka Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1200 41st Ave	open
Nashville Fire Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1855 41st Ave	open
New Beet Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	1210 41st Ave	open
Nothing Bundt Cakes Nothing Bundt Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3555 Clares St Ste YY	open
Off The Block	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	115 San Jose Ave	open
Olive Garden Olive Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3400 Clares St	open
Orange Julius	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1855 41st Ave Ste R9	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1200 41st Ave Ste B	open
Paradise Beach Grille	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	215 Esplanade	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	819 Bay Ave	open
Pizza My Heart Pizza My Heart - Santa Cruz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2180 41st Ave	open
Pizza My Heart Pizza My Heart - Santa Cruz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	209 Esplanade	open
Pizza Pizzeria Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1855 41st Ave	open
Reef Dog Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	311 Capitola Ave	open
Roux Dat Cajun Creole	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	3555 Clares St Ste G	open
Ruyi Dim Sum	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho · Chinese · Asian	1200 41st Ave	open
San Marcos Charquito Tacos y Tortas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	718 Capitola Ave	open
Sandcastle Cafe	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	110 Stockton Ave	open
Sante Adairius Rustic Ales Sante Adairius Rustic Ales	Brewery / taproom · Bar		103 Kennedy Dr	open
Sea Side Coffee	Café	Coffee	115 San Jose Ave	open
Seaside Siam	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Japanese · Asian	207 Esplanade	open
See's Candies See's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	1601 41st Ave	open
Shadowbrook Restaurant Shadowbrook Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1750 Wharf Rd	open
Sherri's Cookies	Bakery	Bakery	1855 41st Ave	open
Souza's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	200 Monterey Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	809 Bay Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1955 41st Ave	open
Stockton Bridge Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	231 Esplanade	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1855 41st Ave Ste R3	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1200 41st Ave #A	open
Sunset Hospitality Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		231 Esplanade Unit 101	open
Super Noodle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	1200 41st Ave Ste C	open
Sushi Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	820 Bay Ave	open
Sweet Pea's Cafe & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2121 41st Ave	open
Tacos Moreno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1601 41st Ave	open
Tacos Moreno 3	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	201 Esplanade	open
Taqueria Tepeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3555 Clares St	open
Taquizas Gabriel LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1855 41st Avenue R01	open
Terra Superfoods (Vacant Space)	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1855 41st Ave Capitola Mall	open
Thai Basil	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	210 Monterey Ave	open
The Cook House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	706 Capitola Ave	open
The Daily Grind Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	115 San Jose Ave	open
Togo's Sandwiches TOGO'S Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Fast casual · Quick service	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	1955 41st Ave Ste. A3	open
Tony & Alba's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1501 41st Ave	open
Trestles Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	316 Capitola Ave	open
Village East	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1855 41st Ave	open
Village Host Capitola Llc	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	819 Bay Ave	open
Wasabi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3555 Clares St	open
Wetzel's Pretzels Wetzel's Pretzels	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Bakery	1855 41st Ave #R11	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	3555 Clares St Ste Ff	open
Yogurtland Capitola Yogurtland	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1955 41st Ave Suite A4	open
Zelda's on the Beach	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	203 Esplanade	open
Zizzo's Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3555 Clares St	open
Fiesta Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1855 41st Ave	closed
Five Guys	Quick service		1855 41st Ave	closed
Yogurt Express	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3555 Clares St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	74	70	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	68	64	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	73	69	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	63	61	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	67	64	24	26	13	2	NAICS1997
1999	69	67	28	24	14	1	NAICS1997
2000	66	64	28	23	12	1	NAICS1997
2001	66	63	29	21	12	2	NAICS1997
2002	68	65	29	21	14	1	NAICS1997
2003	63	62	27	24	10	1	NAICS2002
2004	67	62	29	19	13	4	NAICS2002
2005	66	62	27	21	13	3	NAICS2002
2006	62	59	28	18	12	2	NAICS2002
2007	60	59	24	18	16	1	NAICS2002
2008	69	67	24	22	20	2	NAICS2007
2009	65	64	24	20	19	1	NAICS2007
2010	71	69	26	23	19	2	NAICS2007
2011	71	69	27	24	17	2	NAICS2007
2012	71	67	29	23	14	4	NAICS2012
2013	72	67	28	24	15	4	NAICS2012
2014	65	61	27	21	13	4	NAICS2012
2015	69	65	27	24	14	4	NAICS2012
2016	67	64	28	22	14	3	NAICS2012
2017	65	63	29	22	12	—	NAICS2017
2018	63	63	27	21	15	—	NAICS2017
2019	63	62	27	22	13	—	NAICS2017
2020	68	67	31	23	13	—	NAICS2017
2021	66	66	27	25	14	—	NAICS2017
2022	67	66	28	24	14	—	NAICS2022
2023	67	63	26	23	14	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95010. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95062	1.9 mi	70	2023
95065	4.2 mi	9	2023
95073	4.6 mi	24	2023
95003	4.7 mi	45	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.