BMIE Market 95073
Santa Cruz County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 11,639 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 4,516 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±364 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 10,154 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 4,334 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $118,169 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,580 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,073 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±174 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $1,062,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±68,879 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 22.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95073 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 22.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +4.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +26.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +9.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 23 (range 20–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95073. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 79.6 | 80 | 40% | +31.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 58.7 | 59 | 35% | +20.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 45.6 | 46 | 25% | +11.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 11,639 | 73 | 40% | +29.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 118,169 | 90 | 40% | +35.9 |
| Households (ACS) | 4,516 | 73 | 20% | +14.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 4.4 | 49 | 35% | +17.2 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 20.6 | 36 | 25% | +8.9 |
| Population (ACS) | 11,639 | 73 | 20% | +14.6 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 118,169 | 90 | 20% | +17.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 4.4 | 49 | 30% | +14.8 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 26.3 | 50 | 20% | +10.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (57)
By cuisine
Coffee 9 · Asian 6 · Mexican 5 · Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Chinese 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Dessert 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Seafood 2 · Sushi 2 · Thai 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Vegetarian 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Bar 8 · Coffee shop 7 · Winery / distillery / taproom 7 · Café 6 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Other 3 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3P Wine Co. | Winery / distillery / taproom | Soquel San Jose Road | open | |
| 41st Ocean Breakfast & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2623 41st Ave | open | |
| Adorable French Bakery - Bistro At Vinocruz | Casual dining | 4901 Soquel Dr | open | |
| Aldo's Bakery & Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 4628 Soquel Dr | open |
| Bargetto Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3535 N Main St | open | |
| Beer Thirty Bottle Shop & Pour House | Bar · Casual dining | 2504 S Main St | open | |
| Briske Business Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3101 N Main St | open | |
| Buzzo Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Pizza | 2510 S Main St | open |
| Café Aroma | Café · Coffee shop | Coffee · Italian | open | |
| Cafe Cruz | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · Coffee | 2621 41st Ave | open |
| Carpo's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Burgers | 2400 Porter St | open |
| Casalegnos Market | Coffee shop | Coffee | 3 Laurel Glen Rd | open |
| Chaucer's Mead | Bar | 3535 Main St | open | |
| Crumbl Cookies - Capitola | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery | Dessert · Bakery | 2750 41st Ave Ste E | open |
| Discretion Brewing | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 2703 41st Ave Ste. A | open | |
| El Chipotle Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4724 Soquel Dr | open |
| Golden Buddha | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 4610 Soquel Dr | open |
| Golden Fu Wah | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Chinese · Sushi · Asian | 4610 Soquel Dr | open |
| HOME | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 3101 N Main St | open |
| JJ's Saloon and Social Club | Bar | 4714 Soquel Dr | open | |
| Kelly’s Deli Soquel | Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Juice / smoothies · Sandwiches · American | 2600 41st Ave | open |
| Little Tampico | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2605 S Main St | open |
| Main Street Garden & Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 3101 N Main St | open |
| Ming's Palace Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4720 Soquel Dr | open |
| North Coast Coffee Roasting Company | Coffee shop | Coffee | 2901 Research Park Dr | open |
| Osocalis | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5579 Soquel San Jose Rd | open | |
| Panda Express | Quick service | Chinese · Asian | 2740 41st Ave | open |
| Poetic Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5000 N Rodeo Gulch Rd | open | |
| Pretty Good Advice | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls | 3070 Porter St | open |
| Raffaelli Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3357 Chardonnay Rd | open | |
| Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2690 41st Ave | open |
| Salty Girl Farmstand | Food truck | 2800 S Rodeo Gulch Rd | open | |
| Sawasdee Thai Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 5050 Soquel Dr | open |
| Señor Chilaquiles | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2623 41st Ave | open |
| Shadow Brook Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Seafood | 3545 Soquel Dr | open |
| Sir Froggy's Pub | Bar · Casual dining | 4771 Soquel Dr | open | |
| Soquel - 41st Ave Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2690 41st Ave | open |
| Soquel Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8063 Glen Haven Rd | open | |
| Star of Siam - Soquel Village | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 3005 Porter St | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café | Juice / smoothies · Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian | 2740 41st Ave | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 470 N Santa Cruz Ave | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 2740 41st Ave Ste B | open |
| Sugar Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 2750 41st Ave Ste E | open |
| Sunrise Cafe | Café | Coffee | 4718 Soquel Dr | open |
| Superman Herbs | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 2825 S Rodeo Gulch Rd | open | |
| Surf City Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 2551 S Rodeo Gulch Rd Ste 7 | open |
| Surf City Sandwich | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Casual dining · Bar | Sandwiches | 4101 Soquel Dr B1 | open |
| Surf City Sandwich | Other | Sandwiches | 4101 Soquel Dr # B1 | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 2730 41st Ave | open |
| Tampico Restuarant Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2605 S Main St | open | |
| The Bagelry Soquel The Bagelry | Bakery | Bakery · Breakfast | 4763 Soquel Dr | open |
| Tortilla Flats | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4616 Soquel Dr | open |
| Ugly Mug CoffeeHouse | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 4640 Soquel Dr | open |
| Village Kitchen | Quick service · Catering | 2800 S Rodeo Gulch Rd | open | |
| Wargin Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 5015 Soquel Dr | open | |
| Hunter Hill Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | closed | ||
| Michael's On Main | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2591 S Main St | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 24 | 22 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 21 | 19 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 20 | 18 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 21 | 19 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 21 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 21 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 23 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 24 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 24 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 21 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 26 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 24 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 27 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 27 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 27 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 26 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 26 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 28 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 25 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 29 | 26 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 29 | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 27 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 28 | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 27 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 27 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 26 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 26 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 29 | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 29 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2022 |