BMIE Market 95065

Santa Cruz County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,997 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±979 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,898 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±250 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,113 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,361 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$153,222 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,827 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,746 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±326 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,228,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73,117 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	10.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95065
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-18.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.21) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95065. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.21, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.8	79	40%	+31.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.0	56	35%	+19.6
Market Momentum Score	46.3	46	25%	+11.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,997	67	40%	+27.0
Median household income (ACS)	153,222	96	40%	+38.6
Households (ACS)	2,898	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.3	67	25%	+16.9
Population (ACS)	7,997	67	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	153,222	96	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 3 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Buffet 1 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Cafetal	Coffee shop	Coffee	2525 Soquel Dr	open
Coastal Range Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1062 Happy Valley Rd	open
Dancing Creek	Winery / distillery / taproom		4363 Branciforte Dr	open
Dunlap's Donuts	Bakery	Bakery	1871 Soquel Dr	open
El Chino Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2525 Soquel Dr Ste A	open
Erik's DeliCafe Erik's DeliCafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	1664 Soquel Dr	open
Four Gates Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom		503 Happy Valley Rd	open
Garden Liquors and Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1815 Soquel Dr	open
Jazzland Espresso Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1555 Soquel Dr	open
Newman's Edc Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1664 Soquel Dr	open
Rhizos Viticulture & Vineyard Consulting	Winery / distillery / taproom		1851 Branciforte Dr	open
Silver Spur Lone Spur Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	2650 Soquel Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	1520 Soquel Dr	open
Sunset Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	American	1 Chaminade Ln	open
The Grille at DeLaveaga	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	401 Upper Park Rd	open
The View Restaurant & Bar (at Chaminade Resort & Spa)	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		1 Chaminade Ln	open
Tortilla Shack Tortilla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	1505 Commercial Wy	open
Upper Crust Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2501 Soquel Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	3	2	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	2	1	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	2	1	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	2	2	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	10	3	2	5	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	4	1	4	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	4	2	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	4	2	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	9	5	1	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	5	1	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	16	10	5	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	9	4	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	14	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95065. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95066	2.9 mi	40	2023
95073	3.0 mi	24	2023
95062	4.0 mi	70	2023
95010	4.2 mi	63	2023
95041	4.3 mi	1	2006
95064	5.0 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.