BMIE Market 95012

Monterey County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,814 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,177 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,627 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±229 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,320 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,765 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,288 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,369 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	28.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,468 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±261 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$598,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±51,713 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95012
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+45.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 11–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	55 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95012. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.8	67	40%	+26.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.9	66	35%	+23.1
Market Momentum Score	55.1	55	25%	+13.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,814	72	40%	+28.8
Median household income (ACS)	80,288	62	40%	+25.0
Households (ACS)	2,627	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.8	53	25%	+13.4
Population (ACS)	10,814	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	80,288	62	20%	+12.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	45.5	61	20%	+12.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

Mexican 8 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Coffee 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Up Bottling Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		11205 Commercial Pkwy	open
Alfonso's Authentic Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11252 Merritt St	open
Amigo’s Mexican Food	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	10639 Merritt St	open
Birrieria & Restaurant Estilo Coalcoman	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10500 Merritt St	open
Brisas Food Y Servicios	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10830 Merritt St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	11290 Merritt St	open
Choke Coach	Food truck		16 Nashua Rd	open
Claudio's Specialty Breads	Bakery	Bakery	11185 Commercial Pkwy B	open
Deliciosos Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11576 Merritt St	open
El Sazon De La Tia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10624 Merritt St	open
Farmer Brothers	Coffee shop	Coffee	11460 Commercial Pkwy	open
Franco of Castroville	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10639 Merritt St	open
Francos Norma Jean's Nightclub	Bar		10639 Merritt St	open
Giant Artichoke Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	11261 Merritt St	open
Gloria Jean's Gourmet Coffees	Coffee shop	Coffee	11480 Commercial Pkwy	open
Guadalajara Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	11050 Preston St	open
Hanabi Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	11276 Merritt St	open
Hkm Ii, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11185 Commercial Pkwy	open
La Bendicion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10830 Merritt St	open
La Fortuna Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	11286 Merritt St	open
Li Yuen Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	11578 Merritt St	open
Mariscos El Nayarita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	10624 Merritt St	open
Mike's Place	Bar		10749 Merritt St	open
Missing Hole Donut Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	11572 Merritt St	open
Moreno's Bar	Bar		10660 Merritt St	open
North Monterey County High School Athletic Boosters Organization	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13990 Castroville Blvd	open
Patio Drive In	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11616 Merritt St	open
Phil's Fish Market & Eatery Phil's Fish Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	10700 Merritt St	open
PTS Nutrtition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	11258 Merritt St	open
Restaurant San Pedro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Spanish / tapas	10768 Merritt St	open
Roar Wines - Production Facility	Winery / distillery / taproom		11005 Commercial Pkwy	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11250 Merritt St	open
Salinas BBQ Grills & Fabrication	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	11505 Commercial Pkwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	11256 Merritt St	open
Trolley Car Rotisserie	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	10961 Merritt St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	15	12	6	5	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	11	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	3	6	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	13	10	3	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	12	8	2	4	2	3	NAICS2002
2008	16	11	2	6	3	4	NAICS2007
2009	15	12	4	5	3	3	NAICS2007
2010	15	12	4	5	3	3	NAICS2007
2011	14	11	3	6	2	3	NAICS2007
2012	15	12	4	6	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	15	12	4	6	2	3	NAICS2012
2014	15	12	3	7	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	19	16	7	7	2	3	NAICS2012
2016	20	16	7	7	2	3	NAICS2012
2017	20	16	8	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	20	16	8	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	18	15	9	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	15	8	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95012. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95039	3.2 mi	8	2023
93907	4.1 mi	37	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.