BMIE Market 95838

Sacramento County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	40,677 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,335 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,016 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±558 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	36,764 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,587 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,349 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,502 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,684 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±80 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$389,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,698 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95838
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+87.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.92) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	89 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95838. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.92, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.3	73	40%	+29.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.1	85	35%	+29.8
Market Momentum Score	89.5	89	25%	+22.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	40,677	94	40%	+37.7
Median household income (ACS)	68,349	44	40%	+17.8
Households (ACS)	12,016	89	20%	+17.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	150	95	35%	+33.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.7	96	25%	+24.0
Population (ACS)	40,677	94	20%	+18.8
Median household income (ACS)	68,349	44	20%	+8.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	150	95	30%	+28.6
20-year restaurant growth	87.5	79	20%	+15.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

BBQ 5 · American 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Asian 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Quick service 6 · Dessert 5 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Food truck 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3-N-1 BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	907 Rivera Dr	open
Beyond Ice Cream Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4330 Pinell St	open
Connie's Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	4010 Marysville Blvd	open
Conscious Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2150 Bell Ave Ste 105	open
Curlew Wines	Bar		12 Dargate Ct	open
D + K Donut Shop	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee	4215 Norwood Ave	open
D's Smokin Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3427 Rio Linda Blvd	open
El Señor del Monte	Food truck	Mexican	3540 Norwood Ave	open
Grown Folks	Bar		3634 Marysville Blvd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		4128 Norwood Ave	open
Jimmys Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1201 Grand Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)		907 Rivera Dr.	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1595 Bell Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4110 Norwood Ave Ste 200	open
Lj's Beef Jerky	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop		20 Main Ave	open
Love Honey	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	48 Ford Rd	open
Lucky Express Lucky Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3828 Willow St	open
Luna’s Flame And Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4400 Raley Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4242 Norwood Ave	open
Menudo y Carnitas Toledo	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Sacramento	open
Millers Custom Woodwork	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2430 Grand Ave	open
New Hong Kong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4195 Norwood Ave	open
Petrisor	Bar		4131 Astoria St	open
Puur Chocolat	Dessert	Dessert	4366 Pinell St	open
Q and R BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3820 Marysville Blvd	open
Quiznos Sub	Other	Sandwiches	4110 Norwood Ave	open
Rev. Dosty's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3610 Marysville Blvd	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4215 Norwood Ave	open
Rounders Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1593 Bell Ave	open
Soul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1525 Grand Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4110 Norwood Ave	open
Starwest Botanicals	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	161 Main Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4211 Norwood Ave Space A-2	open
Sweet Pea Soul Kitchen	Food truck		1104 Carmelita Ave	open
Taqueria Zapotlanejo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4215 Norwood Ave Ste 1A	open
The Last Supper Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Chicken / wings	1858 Grand Ave	open
Tori's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1525 Grand Ave	open
Truck Site	Food truck		1317 Vinci Ave	open
Universal Drywall & Design Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2320 Downar Way Ste B	open
El Pollo Felix	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4200 Norwood Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	9	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	14	11	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	15	11	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	15	11	4	6	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	12	8	4	3	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	11	8	3	5	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	10	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	4	6	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	13	1	9	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	2	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	1	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	5	7	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95838. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95652	2.7 mi	3	2017
95815	2.8 mi	54	2023
95673	3.3 mi	19	2023
95821	3.5 mi	69	2023
95834	4.0 mi	109	2023
95811	4.1 mi	96	2023
95660	4.2 mi	38	2023
95825	4.2 mi	145	2023
95833	4.3 mi	78	2023
95835	4.6 mi	52	2023
95816	5.0 mi	94	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.