BMIE Market 96860

Honolulu County, Hawaii · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,710 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±80 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,124 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	22.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	0.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 96860
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	115.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-69.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-42.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	0 (range 0–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	31 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	5 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 96860. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Hawaii and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 78, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 31 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	40.1	40	40%	+16.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.5	40	35%	+13.8
Market Momentum Score	5.1	5	25%	+1.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 40 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,710	59	40%	+39.6
Households (ACS)	0	1	20%	+0.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-69.2	0	35%	+0.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.5	78	25%	+24.5
Population (ACS)	4,710	59	20%	+14.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 5 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-33.3	8	50%	+4.1
10-year restaurant growth	-69.2	0	30%	+0.1
20-year restaurant growth	-50	4	20%	+0.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

American 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service · Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	810 Willamette St Ste B-1786	open
Club Pearl	Bar	American	915 North Rd	open
Dixie Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
Drive Thru Joe	Coffee shop	Coffee	1477 North Rd	open
Harbor Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		Building 1736 96818, 630 Pierce St	open
Jagger's Cafe Pearl Harbor	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	Building 223 South Ave and, 8th St, Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam	open
Panda Express	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		810 Williamette St #42	open
Patxis Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	810 Willamette St	open
Phillies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	711 Pierce St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	850 Ticonderoga St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Makalapa, Bldg 372	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1477 N. Road, Bldg 2186	open
Taco Bell	Quick service		850 Ticonderoga St	open
Taco Del Mar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1025 Quincy Ave #1786	open
The Sand Bar	Bar			open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	15	11	—	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	—	5	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	—	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	—	5	4	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	—	6	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	13	—	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	16	—	9	7	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	—	6	6	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	—	7	6	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	13	—	7	6	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	—	5	6	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	—	7	6	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	13	—	7	6	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	—	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 96860. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
96818	1.1 mi	60	2023
96853	1.6 mi	3	2023
96820	2.2 mi	1	2016
96859	3.7 mi	—
96858	4.2 mi	—
96819	4.6 mi	67	2023
96706	4.9 mi	38	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.