BMIE Market 98438

Pierce County, Washington · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	613 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	58 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	366 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	22.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	1.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2017 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2017 detail (NAICS2017) · by USPS ZIP 98438
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	27.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1995–2016 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	33 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	12 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	14 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 98438. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1995–2016, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Washington and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 484, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	11.8	12	40%	+4.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	14.5	14	35%	+5.1
Market Momentum Score	92.1	92	25%	+23.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 12 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	613	24	40%	+9.7
Median household income (ACS)	21,023	1	40%	+0.3
Households (ACS)	58	9	20%	+1.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 14 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	32.6	18	25%	+6.8
Population (ACS)	613	24	20%	+7.5
Median household income (ACS)	21,023	1	20%	+0.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 92 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+68.6
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+23.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

American 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bar 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	504 Barnes Blvd Bldg 5280-B	open
Burger King	Quick service		McChord AFB	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service		McChord AFB - Barnes Blvd. Building 510	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American		open
Charleys Philly Steaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	504 Barnes Blvd	open
Habañero Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	895 Lincoln Blvd SW	open
Manchu Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	Mcchord Afb	open
Olympic Dining Facility	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	548 Outer Dr	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	(military Post Access Required) Mcchord Bx Food Ct	open
QDOBA Mexican Eats	Quick service		Bldg. 504 Barnes Blvd.	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	504 Barnes Blvd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	Mcchord Afb Box Bldg 504	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2007	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 98438. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
98439	0.6 mi	1	2016
98499	2.3 mi	139	2023
98444	2.4 mi	65	2023
98447	2.4 mi	—
98498	3.5 mi	37	2023
98430	3.8 mi	1	2016
98445	4.1 mi	9	2023
98408	4.8 mi	36	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.