BMIE Market 01890

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	23,406 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,340 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±312 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,382 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,988 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$230,198 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,670 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,279 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±481 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,215,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,844 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01890
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	28 (range 24–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01890. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.8	90	40%	+35.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60	60	35%	+21.0
Market Momentum Score	38.4	38	25%	+9.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	23,406	84	40%	+33.6
Median household income (ACS)	230,198	99	40%	+39.8
Households (ACS)	8,340	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10.3	18	35%	+6.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.1	68	25%	+17.0
Population (ACS)	23,406	84	20%	+16.8
Median household income (ACS)	230,198	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-10.3	18	30%	+5.4
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (49)

By cuisine

Coffee 9 · American 8 · Bakery 8 · Asian 6 · Italian 6 · Dessert 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Chinese 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Japanese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Pizza 3 · Greek 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · European 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Bakery 11 · Dessert 8 · Café 7 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Quick service 6 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bar 2 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Tavola Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	34 Church St	open
Andrea's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Greek	883 Main St	open
Bagel Land	Bakery	Bakery	794 Main St	open
Bagels N Brew	Bakery · Coffee shop	Bakery · Coffee	748 Main St	open
Black Horse Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	32 Waterfield Rd #38	open
Bruegger's Bagels Bruegger's Bagels	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	600 Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	765 Main Street	open
Cafe Piazza Dolce	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	831 Main St	open
Cafe' Zen	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	2 Lowell Ave	open
Caffè Nero Caffè Nero	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	547 Main St	open
China Sky	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Japanese · Asian	27 Converse Pl	open
Comella's Restaurants Winchester Comella's Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	529 Main St	open
D'Agostino's Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	11 Waterfield Rd	open
Division Street	Restaurant (service type not stated)		50 Cross St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	797 Main St	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Specialty food shop · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Sandwiches · Coffee · Dessert	538 Main St	open
Eighty Eight Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Chinese · Coffee	358 Washington St	open
Fen Yang House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	738 Main St	open
First House Pub	Bar · Casual dining		528 Main St	open
Frasa	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	28 Church St	open
Frozen Hoagies	Dessert · Food truck	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	534 Main St	open
Gloria's Pizzeria & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	920 Main St	open
Gluten Free Me	Bakery	Bakery	748 Main St	open
Joe's Main Street Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Sandwiches · Pizza	612 Main St	open
Karma in Winchester Karma Restaurant Westford	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	16 Thompson St	open
Kyuramen - Winchester Kyuramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	538 Main St	open
La Patisserie	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	30 Church St	open
Left Eden Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Thompson St	open
Lucia Ristorante / Winchester	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	13 Mt Vernon St	open
Mamadou's Artisan Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	63 Swanton St	open
Mitho Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	831 Main St	open
Nashoba Valley Winery, Bolton Ma	Winery / distillery / taproom		98 Hill St	open
Nourish Your Soul Nourish Your Soul	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	15 Thompson St	open
Philip R's Sorbets	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	750 Main St	open
Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	529 Main St	open
Playa Bowls Playa Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	600 Main St	open
Sakura Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	910 Main St	open
Scoopalooza Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	527 Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	542 Main St	open
Stone Hearth Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		528 Main St	open
Swanton Street Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	72 Swanton St	open
Sweet SurpriZe	Dessert		23 Thompson St	open
Thai Charoen Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	612 Main St	open
The Bagel Bar	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	11 Thompson St	open
The Fuller Cup	Café	Coffee	11 Thompson St	open
The Gingerbread Construction Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	562 Washington St	open
The Greek Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	599 Main St	open
Toscano's Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	740 Main St	open
TWK	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	14 Thompson St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	18	17	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	19	17	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	27	26	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	21	18	7	6	5	—	NAICS1997
1999	22	20	8	7	5	—	NAICS1997
2000	25	23	7	9	7	—	NAICS1997
2001	25	22	7	9	6	—	NAICS1997
2002	23	18	5	7	6	1	NAICS1997
2003	22	18	4	8	6	1	NAICS2002
2004	27	21	5	9	7	2	NAICS2002
2005	31	24	6	12	6	2	NAICS2002
2006	28	23	8	9	6	1	NAICS2002
2007	28	24	10	7	7	1	NAICS2002
2008	31	26	10	9	7	1	NAICS2007
2009	29	23	11	6	6	2	NAICS2007
2010	32	29	13	9	7	1	NAICS2007
2011	32	29	14	10	5	1	NAICS2007
2012	32	27	12	10	5	2	NAICS2012
2013	34	29	13	11	5	1	NAICS2012
2014	29	25	11	9	5	1	NAICS2012
2015	28	24	10	10	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	30	27	14	8	5	1	NAICS2012
2017	30	27	12	10	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	30	26	13	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	32	29	11	12	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	29	26	10	10	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	32	27	11	9	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	32	28	11	12	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	26	8	11	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01890. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02474	2.3 mi	43	2023
01801	2.5 mi	101	2023
02155	2.7 mi	114	2023
02180	2.8 mi	39	2023
02476	2.9 mi	27	2023
02420	3.8 mi	41	2023
02144	3.8 mi	68	2023
02140	4.2 mi	54	2023
02176	4.4 mi	45	2023
02478	4.4 mi	52	2023
01803	4.6 mi	112	2023
02148	4.7 mi	102	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.