BMIE Market 10464

Bronx County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,828 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±753 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,949 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±295 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,534 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,272 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±43,009 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	60.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,826 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±236 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$656,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,865 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10464
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	48.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+4.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 19–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10464. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.7	68	40%	+27.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48.2	48	35%	+16.9
Market Momentum Score	51.9	52	25%	+13.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,828	56	40%	+22.5
Median household income (ACS)	103,125	83	40%	+33.1
Households (ACS)	1,949	61	20%	+12.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	9.1	53	35%	+18.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	62.7	7	25%	+1.8
Population (ACS)	3,828	56	20%	+11.2
Median household income (ACS)	103,125	83	20%	+16.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	4.4	61	50%	+30.4
10-year restaurant growth	9.1	53	30%	+16.0
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (54)

By cuisine

American 17 · Seafood 17 · Italian 6 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Mexican 3 · Caribbean 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 43 · Casual dining 9 · Bar 6 · Quick service 5 · Specialty food shop 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
394 City Island Ave., Inc. Dba Artie's S	Restaurant (service type not stated)		394 City Island Ave	open
A Taste Of Italy	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza · Italian	250 City Island Ave	open
Anthony's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	273 City Island Ave	open
Archie's Tap & Table	Casual dining · Bar	American	536 City Island Ave	open
Artie's Steak And Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	394 City Island Ave	open
ATIK Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		555 City Island Ave	open
Augie's City Island Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	520 City Island Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Seafood · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	636 City Island Ave	open
Bemelmans Bar, The Carlyle	Bar	American		open
Bistro SK	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	273 City Island Ave	open
Caliente's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	414 City Island Ave	open
City Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	2 City Island Ave	open
City Island Chinese Rest. 88 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	84 City Island Ave # 86	open
City Island Diner	Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · American	304 City Island Ave	open
City Island Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	313 City Island Ave	open
City Island Lobster House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	691 Bridge St	open
City Island Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	273 City Island Ave	open
Clipper Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	274 City Island Ave	open
Don Coqui on the Water	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	565 City Island Ave	open
Fella's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		522 City Island Ave	open
Firehouse Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	240 City Island Ave	open
Fishbox Restaurant Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		41 City Island Ave	open
Jimmy's City Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	500 City Island Ave	open
Johnny's Reef	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	2 City Island Ave	open
JP's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	703 Minnieford Ave	open
Klassy Kuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	701 Minnieford Ave	open
La Mezcaleria by VISTAMAR	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	565 City Island Ave	open
Lickety Split Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	295 City Island Ave	open
Lido Restaurant & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 City Island Ave	open
Little Frida's Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	415 City Island Ave	open
Little Greece	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	327 City Island Ave	open
Lobster Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	34 City Island Ave	open
Man Overboard Bar	Bar		247 City Island Ave	open
Ohama Japanesse Restaurant City Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian		open
Ohana Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		500 City Island Ave	open
PJ Seafood at City Island, Bronx, NY	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Portofino Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	555 City Island Ave	open
Ray's Cafe And Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas · American	205 City Island Ave	open
Resa Marina Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		459 City Island Ave	open
Sammy's Fish Box Sammy's Fish Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	41 City Island Ave	open
Sammy's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	64 City Island Ave	open
Scavello's On The Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood · Pizza	101 City Island Ave	open
Sea Breeze Deli Corp	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Sandwiches · American	325 City Island Ave	open
Sea Shore Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	591 City Island Ave	open
Seafood City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	459 City Island Ave	open
Seafood Kingz 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	634 CITY ISLAND AVENUE, Store Front	open
Shrimp Box On City Island	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Seafood		open
Starving Artist Cafe & Gallery	Café	Coffee	249 City Island Ave	open
The Black Whale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	279 City Island Ave	open
The Original Crab Shanty	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	361 City Island Ave	open
The Snug	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	302 City Island Ave	open
Tony's Pier	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1 City Island Ave	open
Uptown Coffeehouse	Coffee shop	Coffee	190 Fordham St	open
Vistamar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Latin American (other)	565 City Island Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	18	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	20	17	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	21	18	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	26	23	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	27	20	14	5	1	6	NAICS1997
1999	27	22	15	6	1	4	NAICS1997
2000	25	21	14	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	26	22	14	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	27	25	18	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	26	24	19	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	28	26	19	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	25	22	15	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	24	21	14	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	29	26	16	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	26	24	18	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	24	22	17	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	23	22	17	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	22	20	15	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	21	20	15	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	24	22	17	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	27	25	18	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	25	23	18	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	27	25	18	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	22	20	15	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	23	17	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	22	16	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	21	15	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	22	15	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	25	16	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	24	17	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10464. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10475	1.7 mi	51	2023
10803	2.1 mi	37	2023
10805	2.3 mi	20	2023
10469	2.7 mi	67	2023
10461	2.8 mi	123	2023
10553	3.0 mi	8	2023
10466	3.0 mi	62	2023
10550	3.2 mi	64	2023
10465	3.2 mi	62	2023
10801	3.4 mi	126	2023
10462	3.8 mi	127	2023
10467	4.0 mi	116	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.