BMIE Market 11023

Nassau County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,630 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,214 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,159 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±361 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,027 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,261 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$141,003 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,376 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,522 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,163 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,143,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±62,144 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11023
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+30.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11023. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.6	80	40%	+31.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.0	66	35%	+23.1
Market Momentum Score	47.0	47	25%	+11.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,630	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	141,003	95	40%	+38.0
Households (ACS)	3,159	68	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	35%	+18.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.5	58	25%	+14.6
Population (ACS)	9,630	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	141,003	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	30%	+15.8
20-year restaurant growth	30	52	20%	+10.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

Halal / kosher 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · French 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Dessert 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
27 Dressings, Great Neck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls · Halal / kosher	519 Middle Neck Rd	open
605 Middle Neck Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		605 Middle Neck Rd	open
Anise	Quick service		613 Middle Neck Rd	open
Bagel Hut	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	503 Middle Neck Rd	open
Baker Hill Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		630 Middle Neck Rd	open
Beefli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	620A Middle Neck Rd	open
Bevanda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	570 Middle Neck Rd	open
Bistro Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Halal / kosher · American	605 Middle Neck Rd	open
Bm Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		574 Middle Neck Rd Ste 203	open
Carvel	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	579 Middle Neck Rd	open
Cho-Sen Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Halal / kosher	505 Middle Neck Rd	open
Deli On The Green	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	647 Middle Neck Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	566 Middle Neck Rd	open
Fountain Blue	Bar		439 Middle Neck Rd	open
French Kosher Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	579 Middle Neck Rd	open
House Of Subs	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	579 Middle Neck Rd	open
La Bottega Italian Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	526 Middle Neck Rd	open
Marie Blachere Bakery and Cafe Marie Blachère	Bakery · Café	Bakery · French · Coffee	550 Middle Neck Rd	open
Pizza Roxx	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher	509 Middle Neck Rd	open
Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	529 Middle Neck Rd	open
Rita’s of Great Neck NY Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Woman's Club of Great Neck	Bar		94 Old Mill Rd	open
Yummy Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		495 Middle Neck Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	11	8	5	1	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	8	5	1	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	5	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	5	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	5	3	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	5	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	12	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	7	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	5	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	13	7	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	14	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11023. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11021	1.0 mi	78	2023
11024	1.3 mi	3	2020
11363	2.0 mi	10	2023
11020	2.1 mi	3	2023
11359	2.3 mi	1	1996
11030	2.4 mi	33	2023
11362	2.7 mi	63	2023
11360	2.8 mi	25	2023
11005	3.1 mi	2	2016
11361	3.2 mi	139	2023
11042	3.4 mi	11	2023
11050	3.5 mi	82	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.