BMIE Market 11577

Nassau County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,077 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,216 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,361 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±393 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,337 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,441 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$182,674 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,778 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,514 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,831 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$988,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52,517 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11577
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	28.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-24.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+4.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-3.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 18–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	18 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11577. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.7	84	40%	+33.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.8	50	35%	+17.4
Market Momentum Score	17.8	18	25%	+4.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,077	75	40%	+29.8
Median household income (ACS)	182,674	98	40%	+39.4
Households (ACS)	4,361	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.1	40	25%	+9.9
Population (ACS)	13,077	75	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	182,674	98	20%	+19.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 18 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-24.2	12	50%	+5.9
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	4.2	37	20%	+7.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (45)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · Pizza 6 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Italian 5 · Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Asian 4 · Middle Eastern 4 · Chinese 2 · Halal / kosher 2 · Mediterranean 2 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Korean 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 32 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Specialty food shop 4 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
17A Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	17A Lincoln Ave	open
350 Roslyn Road Pizza Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		350 Roslyn Rd	open
388	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	388 Willis Ave	open
Antonette's East Hills	Restaurant (service type not stated)		290 Glen Cove Rd	open
Attilio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	96 Mineola Ave	open
Bagel Boss of Roslyn Bagel Boss	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches · Halal / kosher	400 Willis Ave	open
Barbara's Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	113 Mineola Ave	open
Bo Bo Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	285 Warner Ave	open
Carlo's Pizza Carlo's pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	350 Roslyn Rd	open
Carvel Carvel Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	334 Roslyn Rd	open
Chaya's Challah	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	26 Jane St	open
Chicken Kebab Chicken&Kebab / American Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	92 Willis Ave	open
Chopt Creative Salad Co. Chopt Creative Salad Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	383 Willis Ave	open
Colbeh Colbeh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · Middle Eastern	1 Intervale	open
Danny's Chinese Kitchen - Roslyn Danny's Chinese Kitchen - Bellmore	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	147 Mineola Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	117 Mineola Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	191 Mineola Ave #219	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	300 Roslyn Rd	open
Green Cactus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	215 Mineola Ave	open
Jade King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	376 Willis Ave	open
Jdac Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		382 Willis Ave	open
Kitchen Kabaret	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	409 Glen Cove Rd	open
Kuku Korean Cuisine Roslyn KukuKorean Cuisine Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian	96 Mineola Ave	open
Mahal	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	290 Glen Cove Rd	open
Mahal Indian Classic	Restaurant (service type not stated)		267 Glen Cove Rd	open
Matteo's of Roslyn Matteo's Trattoria of Boca Raton	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	88 Mineola Ave	open
Mim's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	235 Roslyn Rd	open
New No. 1 Chinese Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	104 Mineola Ave	open
Opera House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	255 Willis Ave	open
Orwasher’s Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	377 Willis Ave	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	225 Willis Avenue	open
Plaza cafe	Café	Coffee	3 Expressway Plz	open
Ravagh Persian Grill Ravagh Persian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	210 Mineola Ave	open
Roslyn Road Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		235 Roslyn Rd	open
Roslyn Seafood Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	444 Willis Ave	open
Skinny Pizza SKINNYPIZZA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	211 Mineola Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	373 Willis Ave	open
The Dotcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	121 Mineola Ave	open
The Meal Kitchen Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		382 Willis Ave	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop	Coffee	225 Willis Ave	open
Toskana Pizzeria Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	295 Warner Ave	open
Trattoria DiMeo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	183 Roslyn Rd	open
Turquoise Persian Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	36 Lincoln Ave	open
Twenty Five Restaurant Group, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		388 Willis Ave	open
Willis Avenue Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	387 Willis Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	23	23	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	30	30	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	33	33	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	27	25	11	11	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	24	21	10	9	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	25	23	12	10	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	26	24	12	10	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	25	23	13	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	27	24	14	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	29	26	14	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	33	29	15	11	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	31	26	14	10	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	33	29	16	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	34	30	15	13	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	36	32	17	13	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	40	35	19	13	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	39	34	17	14	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	35	29	13	14	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	36	30	13	14	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	35	30	14	12	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	34	29	15	10	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	37	30	14	11	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	37	32	19	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	39	33	17	12	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	35	28	12	12	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	31	24	10	9	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	30	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	27	12	11	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	33	25	10	10	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11577. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11576	1.0 mi	39	2023
11507	1.1 mi	15	2023
11596	1.6 mi	37	2023
11568	2.2 mi	7	2023
11548	2.4 mi	18	2023
11501	2.5 mi	68	2023
11514	2.7 mi	42	2023
11030	2.7 mi	33	2023
11547	3.2 mi	1	2015
11040	3.4 mi	106	2023
11042	3.5 mi	11	2023
11530	3.9 mi	120	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.